I have a current free play of $5250 to win $10,786 on Duke to win the title. The key is it's a free play. I would like to turn a profit here of at least $4,500 to 5K. Current future odds to win title are Duke +155, Kansas +185, Villanova +450 and North Carolina +500.
I've been torn all week on how to play this. I'm not sure it's worth playing North Carolina on the ML (+160) against Duke. Is the better play to bet $1200 on North Carolina to win the title, then hedge out if they beat Duke. I've thought all week about leaving Duke to beat Carolina, then hedge against them in the final. However, if Carolina wins, I get nada.
Looking at title game odds I see Duke would be -1 over Kansas. If that matchup happens, can hedge out for 4 or 5K on Kansas. Duke would be -4 against Nova, which would make Nova roughly +160 on the ML.
Any thoughts are appreciated.
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