Home Dog leading the MAC early on

I’ll take Ken Pom’s #245 Bowling Green, the suddenly hot, surprising 2/0 MAC leader getting 4 points at home against #124 Akron.  Sagarin ranks Akron’s schedule strength at #187 while Bowling Green has a terrible schedule strength at #341.  But Sagarin pegs Bowling Green a 1 1/2 point favorite.  Akron is 7/6 on the year and their wins are over numbers 150, 216, 228, 264, 295, 303 and 313…hardly anything to get excited about.  Bowling Green is 6/7 but that includes a conference win over #162 Ohio and another win early in the season against #170 Air Force.This is Akron’s 2nd straight conference road game with a win at home and a loss on the road.  Bowling Green has the win at home against Ohio and a loss on the road at #139 Ball State.

Their season stats are roughly equal but Bowling Green has to come into this game feeling great about themselves because they are on fire shooting the ball in both conference games.  They are #1 in the conference in 2 pt FG shooting percentage, #2 in 3 pt FG percentage, #2 in offensive efficiency, #6 in defensive efficiency, #2 in TO percentage and #1 in both blocks and steals.  Yikes! They have an 8-man rotation.  5 were in double digits in game 1 and 4 in game two. Here’s how 5 different guys shot 3s in the first two games combined — 4/7, 8/14, 2/5, 2/6 and 4/7.  That’s nuts. By the way Akron is #269 ranked defending the 3.  Gimme the suddenly red hot shooting BG at home.

I’ll also take LSU at home +1 over Florida.  Their stats are pretty even across the board but Florida has beaten nobody of consequence.  They’re 7/7 and their best win is the last one at home against #93 Georgia at home.  They’ve lost all 7 they’ve played against teams ranked higher than #93.  LSU has lost to#25, #26 and #29 and they have wins against #10 Arkansas and #86.  It’s tough to win on the road in the SEC.  Give me the short home dog in the 3rd game in the last 7-8 days for both teams.

A 12-3 team is an under dog at home to an 8-7 team? It seems off. 

Solid

@KasperNV

 Akron's played last couple without their leading scorer Casteneda.  That would explain the line for me...don't know his status for tonight but worth following up later.

@McXmaster

 Good eye.Just read he is probable but still considered a game time decision.

@McXmaster

 I was referring to LSU..

@OldHammy

 I checked injury status before the post and Castenada is questionable with a wrist problem.  Since he’s been out the last two he may be a bit rusty when he returns.  I hope he’s still out or if he’s back it won’t be at 100%.  

@OldHammy

 LSU - they played a bunch of cupcakes early on and Only recently hit some SEC competition.  Florida played a much tougher pre-conference schedule but beat nobody they played that was any good.