Some people use kenpom to handicap totals. Some use it to handicap games ats. And some use it for both. Cite how you use it, what statistics are most important to you and give some examples through step by step analysis of how you've used this information to help you cash some tickets. I got this idea from reading and replying to a thread from a guy trying to get insight into betting college basketball this year.
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Some people use kenpom to handicap totals. Some use it to handicap games ats. And some use it for both. Cite how you use it, what statistics are most important to you and give some examples through step by step analysis of how you've used this information to help you cash some tickets. I got this idea from reading and replying to a thread from a guy trying to get insight into betting college basketball this year.
You can get and idea of a total by looking at Pace, which is average possessions per game and Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies, which is a calculation of points per possession. if a team is 100 on Offensive Efficiency, it means they average 1 point per possession. 194 means 1.04 points per possession, 95 would mean .95 points per possession, etc. Therefore, if a team averages 66 possession per game and 100 on Offensive Efficiency, they can be expected to score 66 points per game.
I sometimes due a formula to get an idea of where a game should be. i take each teams Offensive ("OE") and Defensive Efficiencies ("DE") and divide by 2. Say Team A has an OE of 102 and DE of 98. That is 200/2 = 100. Say they have a Pace rating of 66. Therefore, they rate 66. Say Team B has an OE = 110 and DE = 100 and have a pace rating of 70. That would be 210/2 (105) times 70 = 73.5.
I would add 66 + 70.5 to get a raw score of 136.5 for a total.
Then if you want to get more sophisticated, you would do an analysis of the Pace ratings of each team's opponents. Maybe Team A has played teams that rank in the slowest paced teams in the country. If you notice something valuable like that, you could equate that team A's rating is intrinsically lower than it should be in reality and that against a team like Team B with a pace rating of 70, you could expect them to play a faster pace than their 66 shows and therefore the Over might have value.
That's my brief introduction into Kenpom and its value towards totals. Hope it helps a little.
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You can get and idea of a total by looking at Pace, which is average possessions per game and Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies, which is a calculation of points per possession. if a team is 100 on Offensive Efficiency, it means they average 1 point per possession. 194 means 1.04 points per possession, 95 would mean .95 points per possession, etc. Therefore, if a team averages 66 possession per game and 100 on Offensive Efficiency, they can be expected to score 66 points per game.
I sometimes due a formula to get an idea of where a game should be. i take each teams Offensive ("OE") and Defensive Efficiencies ("DE") and divide by 2. Say Team A has an OE of 102 and DE of 98. That is 200/2 = 100. Say they have a Pace rating of 66. Therefore, they rate 66. Say Team B has an OE = 110 and DE = 100 and have a pace rating of 70. That would be 210/2 (105) times 70 = 73.5.
I would add 66 + 70.5 to get a raw score of 136.5 for a total.
Then if you want to get more sophisticated, you would do an analysis of the Pace ratings of each team's opponents. Maybe Team A has played teams that rank in the slowest paced teams in the country. If you notice something valuable like that, you could equate that team A's rating is intrinsically lower than it should be in reality and that against a team like Team B with a pace rating of 70, you could expect them to play a faster pace than their 66 shows and therefore the Over might have value.
That's my brief introduction into Kenpom and its value towards totals. Hope it helps a little.
You can get and idea of a total by looking at Pace, which is average possessions per game and Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies, which is a calculation of points per possession. if a team is 100 on Offensive Efficiency, it means they average 1 point per possession. 104 means 1.04 points per possession, 95 would mean .95 points per possession, etc. Therefore, if a team averages 66 possession per game and 100 on Offensive Efficiency, they can be expected to score 66 points per game.
I sometimes due a formula to get an idea of where a game should be. i take each teams Offensive ("OE") and Defensive Efficiencies ("DE") and divide by 2. Say Team A has an OE of 102 and DE of 98. That is 200/2 = 100. Say they have a Pace rating of 66. Therefore, they rate 66. Say Team B has an OE = 110 and DE = 100 and have a pace rating of 70. That would be 210/2 (105) times 70 = 73.5.
I would add 66 + 70.5 to get a raw score of 136.5 for a total.
Then if you want to get more sophisticated, you would do an analysis of the Pace ratings of each team's opponents. Maybe Team A has played teams that rank in the slowest paced teams in the country. If you notice something valuable like that, you could equate that team A's rating is intrinsically lower than it should be in reality and that against a team like Team B with a pace rating of 70, you could expect them to play a faster pace than their 66 shows and therefore the Over might have value.
That's my brief introduction into Kenpom and its value towards totals. Hope it helps a little.
correction in red
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Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:
You can get and idea of a total by looking at Pace, which is average possessions per game and Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies, which is a calculation of points per possession. if a team is 100 on Offensive Efficiency, it means they average 1 point per possession. 104 means 1.04 points per possession, 95 would mean .95 points per possession, etc. Therefore, if a team averages 66 possession per game and 100 on Offensive Efficiency, they can be expected to score 66 points per game.
I sometimes due a formula to get an idea of where a game should be. i take each teams Offensive ("OE") and Defensive Efficiencies ("DE") and divide by 2. Say Team A has an OE of 102 and DE of 98. That is 200/2 = 100. Say they have a Pace rating of 66. Therefore, they rate 66. Say Team B has an OE = 110 and DE = 100 and have a pace rating of 70. That would be 210/2 (105) times 70 = 73.5.
I would add 66 + 70.5 to get a raw score of 136.5 for a total.
Then if you want to get more sophisticated, you would do an analysis of the Pace ratings of each team's opponents. Maybe Team A has played teams that rank in the slowest paced teams in the country. If you notice something valuable like that, you could equate that team A's rating is intrinsically lower than it should be in reality and that against a team like Team B with a pace rating of 70, you could expect them to play a faster pace than their 66 shows and therefore the Over might have value.
That's my brief introduction into Kenpom and its value towards totals. Hope it helps a little.
They #1 key stats are adjusted tempo, adj defensive, and adj offensive.
Tempo is HUGE for totals... you wanna look at possessions per game.
Adj Offensive eff is points per possession, with the opponents defensive rankings adjusted into it.
Adj Defensive eff is points given up per possession with the opponents offensive rankings adjusted into it.
For example, looking at last years stats... heres a basic of how you can come up with a total:
Lets say VMI played UNC
VMI tempo: 80.9 possessions per game UNC tempo: 73.9 possessions per game
I would say there is about 78 possessions in this game.
VMI's offfensive: 106.3, or 1.063 points per possession UNC Defense: 89.6 or 0.896 points per possession.
Based on 78 possessions and an avg of .975 ppp, VMI scores 76 points.
UNC offense: 124.2 or 1.242 points per possession VMI defense: 108.2 or 1.082 points per possession
UNC scores: 91
The projected score in a neutral court would be 91-76 UNC
Bad example obviously as UNC would have likely put up 100+, but a good starting point.
I
also wanna say that the totals will be very sharp once February
comes... Using kenpom's stats will be MOST successful for totals in
December and January.
There are other ways where using
kenpom's stats could be huge in picking sides. The keys will be
looking at what defense the teams play, and looking at each others
offensive strengths. What teams are MOST reliant on 3's and what teams
force the most 3's.
The teams that give up the most % of 3's will play a heavy zone.
https://kenpom.com/tmleaders.php?c=OppF3GRate
As
you can tell by this, its quite obvious without even watching these
teams that SIU-Edwardsville and Drexel both played tight man-to-man,
while Chattanooga and Air Force both played zone.
You just have
to look for situations where a great 3-point shooting team thats
reliant on is playing a team that gives up a lot of 3-point attempts.
AN example from 2008-2009 was Wisconsin Green Bay against Valparaiso.
Valpo played a zone defense, and gave up the 320th most 3-pointers, at almost 40% of all attempts.
Wisconsin
Green Bay took 36% of there shots behind 3 and hit 40% of them, so they
would be considered a solid 3-point dependent and reliable team.
Bad matchup for Valparaiso.
Wisconsin Green Bay won both meetings... 83-76 and 76-61.
Wisc-GB covered both and both games went well over the total.
You just have to use the stats given smartly.
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I wrote this in another thread:
They #1 key stats are adjusted tempo, adj defensive, and adj offensive.
Tempo is HUGE for totals... you wanna look at possessions per game.
Adj Offensive eff is points per possession, with the opponents defensive rankings adjusted into it.
Adj Defensive eff is points given up per possession with the opponents offensive rankings adjusted into it.
For example, looking at last years stats... heres a basic of how you can come up with a total:
Lets say VMI played UNC
VMI tempo: 80.9 possessions per game UNC tempo: 73.9 possessions per game
I would say there is about 78 possessions in this game.
VMI's offfensive: 106.3, or 1.063 points per possession UNC Defense: 89.6 or 0.896 points per possession.
Based on 78 possessions and an avg of .975 ppp, VMI scores 76 points.
UNC offense: 124.2 or 1.242 points per possession VMI defense: 108.2 or 1.082 points per possession
UNC scores: 91
The projected score in a neutral court would be 91-76 UNC
Bad example obviously as UNC would have likely put up 100+, but a good starting point.
I
also wanna say that the totals will be very sharp once February
comes... Using kenpom's stats will be MOST successful for totals in
December and January.
There are other ways where using
kenpom's stats could be huge in picking sides. The keys will be
looking at what defense the teams play, and looking at each others
offensive strengths. What teams are MOST reliant on 3's and what teams
force the most 3's.
The teams that give up the most % of 3's will play a heavy zone.
https://kenpom.com/tmleaders.php?c=OppF3GRate
As
you can tell by this, its quite obvious without even watching these
teams that SIU-Edwardsville and Drexel both played tight man-to-man,
while Chattanooga and Air Force both played zone.
You just have
to look for situations where a great 3-point shooting team thats
reliant on is playing a team that gives up a lot of 3-point attempts.
AN example from 2008-2009 was Wisconsin Green Bay against Valparaiso.
Valpo played a zone defense, and gave up the 320th most 3-pointers, at almost 40% of all attempts.
Wisconsin
Green Bay took 36% of there shots behind 3 and hit 40% of them, so they
would be considered a solid 3-point dependent and reliable team.
Bad matchup for Valparaiso.
Wisconsin Green Bay won both meetings... 83-76 and 76-61.
Wisc-GB covered both and both games went well over the total.
I love using Kenpom....but also like looking at what they did against teams that played similar paces as their current opponent.
By the way, TAKE OFF MARCH MADNESS THIS YEAR I want you to get to hang out with us and throw down. We had a lot of fun last year. I'll be out on Wednesday night. I'm hoping to have another great Thursday and Friday like last year to start the weekend right.
1
I love using Kenpom....but also like looking at what they did against teams that played similar paces as their current opponent.
By the way, TAKE OFF MARCH MADNESS THIS YEAR I want you to get to hang out with us and throw down. We had a lot of fun last year. I'll be out on Wednesday night. I'm hoping to have another great Thursday and Friday like last year to start the weekend right.
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I want you to get to hang out with us and throw down. We had a lot of fun last year. I'll be out on Wednesday night. I'm hoping to have another great Thursday and Friday like last year to start the weekend right.
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