For whatever reason, Niagra vs. Rider, line went from 10.5 to 9/8.5 Seeing that much of a drop in the line, I chose Niagra and bought it up back to it's original line and parlayed it with another game for a decent payout. Niagra down 24......Looking at the action now, it seems just before game time it went 9.5 again... WTF?
I thought the wise action was on Niagra with the big drop. Do books drop the line if no one plays it? I got suckered into this. Any tips from anybody?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
For whatever reason, Niagra vs. Rider, line went from 10.5 to 9/8.5 Seeing that much of a drop in the line, I chose Niagra and bought it up back to it's original line and parlayed it with another game for a decent payout. Niagra down 24......Looking at the action now, it seems just before game time it went 9.5 again... WTF?
I thought the wise action was on Niagra with the big drop. Do books drop the line if no one plays it? I got suckered into this. Any tips from anybody?
6-20 Niagara a pissed off Rider team blowing the monmouth win people sometimes look to deep into a let down game. What let down is their though when the next opponent is atrocious?
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6-20 Niagara a pissed off Rider team blowing the monmouth win people sometimes look to deep into a let down game. What let down is their though when the next opponent is atrocious?
Never thought Niagra would win. However, I thought they'd cover 10.5 Last 3 matchups between these two, each game was decided by 9 points or less including a Niagra SU win at Rider.
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Never thought Niagra would win. However, I thought they'd cover 10.5 Last 3 matchups between these two, each game was decided by 9 points or less including a Niagra SU win at Rider.
Some of the syndicate runners bet aggressively w/ large money only to come over the top last second. There's no way to know what exactly is going on.
And keep in mind they aren't always right anyway...
This
Cap your own games don't rely too much in line movement just going to mess your head up. I rather look at matchups, eye test and what have you done for me lately.
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Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Some of the syndicate runners bet aggressively w/ large money only to come over the top last second. There's no way to know what exactly is going on.
And keep in mind they aren't always right anyway...
This
Cap your own games don't rely too much in line movement just going to mess your head up. I rather look at matchups, eye test and what have you done for me lately.
Always consider what it takes to move the line in the first place...what is the bookmakers exposure (risk.)
Even the big books have low limits on CBB games...especially non televised games like Niagara, so one big bet (2,500 to 5,000) could move a line a few points (especially if the bet is made by a player they respect.)
If you try to play wise guys on these games, you will lose your shirt doing it blindly.
However, when you see a revers move on an NFL game....now your talking about major amounts of cash to move a line. So a bookmaker is gonna be real careful on moving the line....so a reverse move like this is an indication of a line to go with. Multiply this by 10 if its an NFL Sunday or Monday Night game (or Super Bowl.)
Sometimes, even a college football primetime games (and even some hoops games) have higher betting limits....as the books know they need some wise guy chunks to even out the public action (that is always exponentially higher on big tv games.)
So, basically, there is not really any public action on the lesser games and should be ignored (if playing them blindly.) Put more faith into reverse line moves in big tv games.
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Here is a good way to use reverse line moves...
Always consider what it takes to move the line in the first place...what is the bookmakers exposure (risk.)
Even the big books have low limits on CBB games...especially non televised games like Niagara, so one big bet (2,500 to 5,000) could move a line a few points (especially if the bet is made by a player they respect.)
If you try to play wise guys on these games, you will lose your shirt doing it blindly.
However, when you see a revers move on an NFL game....now your talking about major amounts of cash to move a line. So a bookmaker is gonna be real careful on moving the line....so a reverse move like this is an indication of a line to go with. Multiply this by 10 if its an NFL Sunday or Monday Night game (or Super Bowl.)
Sometimes, even a college football primetime games (and even some hoops games) have higher betting limits....as the books know they need some wise guy chunks to even out the public action (that is always exponentially higher on big tv games.)
So, basically, there is not really any public action on the lesser games and should be ignored (if playing them blindly.) Put more faith into reverse line moves in big tv games.
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