Iona v. Manhattan Springfield Mass. 7 et.
Opening: Manhattan pk/-2, 157.
Analysis: Pick Manhattan -2.
During the last matchup I took Manhattan at home, in which they failed to cover the spread of 4.5 but won at home by 3, 80-77. I believe they hold some value tonight as well and here is why:
1. Revenge. Last year Iona won this game 60-57 and I believe that with this group of seniors that Manhattan has it is there year to go to the tournament. Manhattan seeking their first bid since 2004 to the NCAA tournament. All offseason and into the season all that their coach has talked about beating their rivals in this game, and it is shaping up perfectly for a strong effort from them. In this same game last year, Iona only shot 3-9 from the three. Now this is definitely a more three reliant team than last year’s squad.
2. Legs. This will be both teams third game in three days and I expect some tried legs. Iona wins or loses by shooting the three ball, and I believe that their shots may be a little off with this kind of scheduling. Last game Iona was 11-29 from three and Williams and Bowman were key contributor to their success from three, but that was on regular rest. A jump shooting team playing its third game in three days? Ill take the other side. If they go out and shot 50% from three then Vegas can have my money, just don’t see it happening. Tired legs could mean trouble for Manhattan’s defense as well, but you have to believe with a trip to the tournament on the line they bring their best effort.
3. Manhattan players matchup. Manhattan starts three seniors who play a key role. Beamon, Alvarado, and Brown. Last time these teams met Beamon was 5-22, and 0-6 from three. Anyone who knows Iona defense knows that this was not because he was that well defended. He just missed open shots. I believe a senior playing in his final game with a chance to get to the tournament brings his A game tonight and redeems himself after that horrible performance. Brown should dominant the paint again tonight again like last time, and I have to believe he will do better than 1-8 from the free throw line. He is only around 50% from there, but if he makes 50% then I can live with that. The only real matchup that Iona has for a big that can matchup with Brown is Laury. The problem with this is that Laury is playing a point four, and needs to exert significant energy on bringing the ball up the court against Manhattan press. Alvarado went out early in the first half last game out because of an ankle injury. He is a huge part of this team, and they found a way to win the game even without him. He hurt his eye last game but is probable to go tonight. A senior, playing his rival, with a chance to go to the tournament, likely he is going to have to not be able to open his eye to play tonight. Alvarado is important, but they can win without him. Alvarado is important piece to distribute and score for this team, and the fact that they already beat Iona once without him is huge. This team just matches up well with Iona, Manhattan can score down low where Iona is weak with Brown, and if Manhattan runs Iona off the three point line I believe they struggle. A team starting 4 seniors in this spot I believe has to hold some value for the experience gained last year.
4. Iona’s defense. They are rated 329th in the nation at points allowed. Yes, some of that has to do with their faster pace, but that is still horrible for a team that finished first in their conference. This Iona team is pretty simple, if they can outscore you they will beat you. They do not focus on defense and would rather a quick easy two and go down and shoot up a three. If Manhattan can get out in and run, Iona has shown that it will give up easy baskets. Manhattan is 15th in the nation and steals, and I believe that there full court pressure could give some problems to Iona’s guards.
Thoughts/comments are welcome, but I really believe unless Iona goes off from three here tonight they will have a hard time scoring and I believe that Manhattan will be cutting down the nets. If I get word that Alvarado cannot not go, then I will take less on it. I will still take it even with him out.
I AGREE BOL
a lot... maybe a lot of points in the 1st half and then start slowing it down 2nd half...
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