No, not necessarily but SOS is a huge factor in college basketball. This is why resources like KenPom are so important. A bunch of other things factor in as well. And this covid season adds even more factors into the mix. It's like a Beyer in horse racing. A Beyer doesn't simply factor in how fast a horse ran. It post position, track condition, did a horse stalk and come from behind in the stretch or did it wire to wire, strength of competition, ect, ect. If it was as simple as "Team A's record and margin of victory/loss vs. Team B's" then everyone would always win.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
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No, not necessarily but SOS is a huge factor in college basketball. This is why resources like KenPom are so important. A bunch of other things factor in as well. And this covid season adds even more factors into the mix. It's like a Beyer in horse racing. A Beyer doesn't simply factor in how fast a horse ran. It post position, track condition, did a horse stalk and come from behind in the stretch or did it wire to wire, strength of competition, ect, ect. If it was as simple as "Team A's record and margin of victory/loss vs. Team B's" then everyone would always win.
Public perception relies on a team's record for a "quick" handicap. Thus odds makers throw out inflated/deflated lines partially based on records.
Just think of how "Joe bettor" would think after seeing:
Team A with a 7-4 record @ Team B with a 2-5 record. Line? Team A -1.
"Hmm, this team has a better record than this other team? I'll take the team with the better record.."
When clearly the "inferior" team has had a tougher schedule...
For my handicapping, I believe that psychology plays a vital part in the handicapping process. Not all of it but part of it because sometimes it's not all about stats and numbers/players. The opening line and closing line are big "hints" as to who SHOULD, keyword being "should," win..
BOL...
"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
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Mythinking:
Public perception relies on a team's record for a "quick" handicap. Thus odds makers throw out inflated/deflated lines partially based on records.
Just think of how "Joe bettor" would think after seeing:
Team A with a 7-4 record @ Team B with a 2-5 record. Line? Team A -1.
"Hmm, this team has a better record than this other team? I'll take the team with the better record.."
When clearly the "inferior" team has had a tougher schedule...
For my handicapping, I believe that psychology plays a vital part in the handicapping process. Not all of it but part of it because sometimes it's not all about stats and numbers/players. The opening line and closing line are big "hints" as to who SHOULD, keyword being "should," win..
Basketball in general..CBB and NBA you will have more upsets because they play way too many games and season is too long...In CBB...there are 18-21 year olds you are relying on....In the NBA...The regular season means nothing....to these players....
Mayweather bet 450000 on
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Basketball in general..CBB and NBA you will have more upsets because they play way too many games and season is too long...In CBB...there are 18-21 year olds you are relying on....In the NBA...The regular season means nothing....to these players....
I am European guy and I bet pure on statistics using KenPom data and Sagarin rankings. When I started I did not understand how this works and these 7-2 and 2-9 were confusing to me but OK later everything became quite clear. I have to say that begin of the season is much easier for me, when conference games start the best I can do is "take the mooney and run" :)
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I am European guy and I bet pure on statistics using KenPom data and Sagarin rankings. When I started I did not understand how this works and these 7-2 and 2-9 were confusing to me but OK later everything became quite clear. I have to say that begin of the season is much easier for me, when conference games start the best I can do is "take the mooney and run" :)
Even more than the NFL. I rarely even take it into consideration, as it's deemed practically meaningless. 8-2 team is favored at home by -6.5 against a 2-7 team. "Well I'll just take the favorite" Result: Favored team doesn't cover. In fact, they lose outright. Happens all the time, and it's not even a surprise, if you consider all of the variables (that's if you do some research).
You shouldn't even bet the NFL- The teams are so close in terms of talent- Its a bunch of all star teams that take turns beating eachother...College sports is totally different
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Quote Originally Posted by The Advocate:
Even more than the NFL. I rarely even take it into consideration, as it's deemed practically meaningless. 8-2 team is favored at home by -6.5 against a 2-7 team. "Well I'll just take the favorite" Result: Favored team doesn't cover. In fact, they lose outright. Happens all the time, and it's not even a surprise, if you consider all of the variables (that's if you do some research).
You shouldn't even bet the NFL- The teams are so close in terms of talent- Its a bunch of all star teams that take turns beating eachother...College sports is totally different
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