Ivy League Saturday

Nova -3 vs. Pitt:  It's all about the matchup here.  We all know that Pitt's offense can be very ugly at times, relying on its #1-in-the-country offensive rebounding prowess to get a lot of second chance points around the bucket.  This is especially important without Gibbs, since they don't really have a primary option otherwise, and no way to beat teams conventionally on offense.  This is largely why I loved them at WVU, which is a dreadful defensive rebounding team, and why Gibbs wasn't nearly that important for Pitt in that game, blasphemous as that may sound for a player of his stature.  Against Nova, however, it will matter.  Nova is a really good defensive rebounding team, not just because of one player (although Yarou is a monster), but because all five guys go to the glass and rebound as a team.  The fact that Stokes is out for Nova will actually make them even better on the glass, as both Cheek and Armwood (the guys likely to take his minutes) both do a better job on the boards.  Pitt will have to be exceptional with its interior passing to be really effective on offense, and Nova generally defends those passes well, not giving up many assists per basket at all, a staple of Pitt's offense.  On the other end, without Stokes Villanova's offense will obviously center around Fisher and Wayns' ability to get to the rim and either finish or draw fouls.  That's gonna put an awful lot of pressure on Wanamaker/Woodall/Brown to try to keep them out of the lane.  Good luck to them, I guess, but it won't be easy.  Both teams are actually kind of similar in how they don't turn the other team over much, and so their good defenses come from their ability to not give up easy shots, not foul, and go grab the misses.  So whichever team can execute in the halfcourt to get easy looks has the best chance to win here, and within the matchup you have to like the fact that Pitt can't disturb what Nova likes to do the same way Nova can do to Pitt.  I also like the fact that this game is being played at the Pavilion (Nova's home stadium) and not the Wells Fargo Center (Philly's NBA stadium, where Nova plays 5 Big East games a year).  The Wells Fargo Center obviously holds more people, but the Pavilion (or the Ski Lodge, as Nova folks call it) is smaller and rowdier and provides for a much better college basketball atmosphere.  Plus in terms of a "spot," this is a pretty damn good one, with Pitt feeling pretty good about itself after its win in its rivalry game last week, while Nova is hungrier and in need of a bounce-back over their bad loss at Rutgers.  Just a lot to like about Nova today.

Others I'm looking at:

North Carolina +1.5 @ Clemson:  I really do just think this Carolina team is coming into its own.  And I think they still have something to prove after their second-half collapse the other night.  Plus they're pretty well prepared for a tough road environment after what they just faced.  And in terms of basketball, I don't see how Clemson is going to be able to score effectively against that stingy D- I just don't see an easy way for them.  So ultimately this one will all come down to energy.  Obviously it's a big game for Clemson and they'll bring it.  So which Carolina team shows up?  If they're down on themselves and still thinking about the Duke game, they ain't gonna win this one.  But my gut's telling me that they're going to respond positively and look to take it out on someone, and that someone is Clemson today.  Right now this is a strong gut play.  Again, we'll see.

Ivy League lines actually just got posted while I was typing that out, so I'll take a look at those games now...

Let's start with a quick review of last night's action:

Penn @ Cornell:  Cornell jumps all over Penn early to grab a 16 point lead in the first half.  Penn starts its run earlier than usual and cuts it to 7 at half, then jumps out early in the second half and gets the lead up to 8 or 9 with 6ish minutes to go.  Cornell makes a run to tie it up.  Penn has a free throw with 1.4 seconds left to win the game (front end of a 1-and-1), but it clanks off the iron and we go to overtime.  Cornell gets all over Penn early and it's never close, with Cornell pulling away to win by 11.  This is now Penn's third straight overtime defeat, losing to Harvard in double-OT last Saturday and in OT at Princeton this past Tuesday.  Just a brutal way to keep losing these games.  As for Cornell, this team seems remarkably one-dimensional, and if you can take away their three pointers, they literally have no other way to get points.

Princeton @ Columbia:  In the most impressive performance of the day yesterday, Princeton really laid the smackdown on Columbia.  They got all over them and never let up.  Star sophomore Ian Hummer had a career game for them on the inside, but what's really noticeable is the defense.  Their D was of tremendous on  Tuesday in the game I saw on Tuesday against Penn, but WOW was it impressive last night, holding Columbia without a field goal for the last 15:12 of the game... never seen that before.  This is a team getting better before our eyes and really rounding into form.  As for Columbia, gah, what is there to say after yesterday.

Yale @ Harvard:  I knew Yale was tough and might give Harvard a decent game, but even I didn't think it'd come down to the final minute like it did.  Close throughout, with no team having a big lead at any point, with Harvard icing it with two late free throws to win by 4 in the final score.  Just a really well-played game by Yale, in particular, in a tough place to play.  As for Harvard, not so impressive defensively yesterday, but this team is going to be really tough to beat at home, and only Princeton really has a shot.  Greg Mangano for Yale played unbelievably well yesterday, and might be the favorite for league POY right now.

Brown @ Dartmouth:  I tried my hardest to ignore this game as much as possible because I knew it would be especially ugly.  With the league's two worst teams playing each other, you never know how bad it's gonna get.  And yesterday it got pretty bad.  Brown obtained an early lead and never relinquished it, leading by 5-12 almost the whole way against an anemic Dartmouth team.  If you're losing to Brown at home, that really says a lot about Dartmouth.  As for what it says about Brown, I wouldn't read too much into it other than that they can beat Dartmouth.

Princeton @ Cornell +4.5:  Well, Princeton looked AWESOME yesterday, and in general I like to be wary about expecting that kind of performance on back-to-back nights.  But this very much appears to be a team on a mission to win this league, and in this league your last win is only any good if you can win the next one too, and they seem to be very aware of that fact and extremely focused.  I like that they were able to rest their starters the last few minutes of last night's blowout, while Cornell's guys were using up their legs in overtime against Penn.  Within the matchup, there's a lot to like about Princeton.  When Cornell is on offense, the ONLY way they can score is with the three-ball.  And in the past few games only, Princeton has really ramped up the ball pressure and forced teams out of their offensive rhythm.  If they can do that tonight and disturb Cornell and keep them from getting quality looks from deep, they should win this going away.  That's the big question for them, though.  On the other end, there's not much to say other than Princeton SHOULD be able to score against this pretty soft Cornell D.  4.5 points is kind of a lot on the road, so I'm not sure what I wanna do here, but it's Princeton or nothing.

Penn @ Columbia:  Do me a favor and just stay the f*** away from this game.  I know this Penn team as well as anybody, and even I'll be the first to admit right now that I have NO idea how they respond after losing ANOTHER overtime game last night (their third in a row).  It's devastating, and that four hour busride to NYC late last night must have been miserable.  I'm sure they're looking forward to getting out there and just playing a game so they can stop thinking about it, but they cannot be in a good place mentally right now.  Columbia, on the other hand, is going through its own rough patch, losing three in a row and playing its worst ball of the season.  So this really is just a classic stay-away.

Yale @ Dartmouth +5.5:  Yale looked really good last night, and Dartmouth looked really bad.  Unfortunately, that seems to largely be factored into the line already, although there be might some value left.  This game features the league's worst O (Dartmouth) trying to score against the league's best D (Yale), so yeah... don't expect them to score a whole heck of a lot.  From a gambling perspective, I like that Yale represents a huge step up in class for Dartmouth (who played Brown last night), and conversely that Dartmouth is a huge step down for Yale (after playing Harvard last night).  I also love Yale's attitude coming into this game.  After the game last night, their star tweeted the following:  "Time to earn some respect and run the table...no more lapses from here on out."  That sounds like a team focused on tonight's game, a team NOT overlooking Dartmouth.  The one thing giving me pause here is that I expect a very slow pace here, and that games on Saturday night's up in Dartmouth's high school game are often really sleepy, and under those conditions 5.5 points is a lot.  I'll probably play Yale somehow, but I just gotta figure out how to do it.

Brown @ Harvard -14.5:  In the last game of the weekend, we see Harvard taking on Brown.  Brown has actually been playing pretty decently offensively the past few games out, which is a mild surprise without their senior leader on the floor for those games.  But they're taking care of the ball and shooting well, and it's kept them in games against some bad teams recently.  Harvard, of course, is not a bad team; they're actually a really good team, and for their part they should be able to score at will against Brown.  My lean would definitely be towards Harvard here, as I think this is a good spot for them, with Brown satisfied coming off a win and them still in must-win mode to keep pace with Princeton, to really take it to somebody.  After all, they've played the next three best teams in the league their last three games and should really enjoy seeing this Brown team come to town.  Still, with Brown being a little feisty lately, I'm not sure there's a ton of value.  I lean  Harvard, and it's definitely Harvard or nothing for me, but I'll probably lay off.

Yale/Princeton ML Parlay:  +112.5

As you can see from my writeups, I like both teams to win.  But I also am a little worried about the inflated numbers.  So I think this may be the best way to play it, using the two games I like the most to hedge each other with the point value.

I haven't locked anything in yet, and probably won't for a few hours, but this is currently what I'm thinking.  I'll keep you posted if I change my mind as I continue to consider things...

Cornell has no significant injuries as far as I know.  As you can see above, I definitely like Princeton tonight, but that line just feels higher than it should be for some reason.  I'll think some more about it and get back to you.

Gotta run out for a bit.  Be back soon...

Ahh, well you're right.  Osgood hasn't played the last two games.  But it really doesn't make a damn bit of different, to be honest.  Their offense has no interior game whatsoever, and the guy getting his minutes (Eitan Cheimerniski (sp?)) is actually perhaps a better option anyway, giving them a little bit of toughness and some good energy.  So good point, but it's not something I'd really consider while looking at this game.

Here's my problem with your analysis, though:  in this league we have three colors:  The Crimson (Harvard), the Big Red (Cornell), and the Big Green (Dartmouth).  What happens when they play each other?  Then how the hell do you decide?