Jeff Sagarin

Question

First off, I appreciate the work that you guys share with everyone on this board. I've been watching for a few weeks and I'm amazed at how good some of you are!

On to my question, has anyone ever experimented with the Jeff Sagarin system to see how it does over time? You can click the link if you're not familiar but it's kinda along the same line as Ken Pomeroy. I started messing with it a few months ago and it started off hot but then cooled off. I was originally using a working number 2, any line that was 2+ points off from what the JS system said, I was taking. When that cooled off I noticed a trend of 3.5+ difference still being hot. To date, when I've used the baseline of 3.5, it's correctly picked the spread 57.9% of the time. My sample size is only 38, so it's small. Just curious to hear if anyone else has messed around with this to see what kind of success it brings long term. Thanks.

Brewmaster · Answer

First off, I appreciate the work that you guys share with everyone on this board. I've been watching for a few weeks and I'm amazed at how good some of you are!

On to my question, has anyone ever experimented with the Jeff Sagarin system to see how it does over time? You can click the link if you're not familiar but it's kinda along the same line as Ken Pomeroy. I started messing with it a few months ago and it started off hot but then cooled off. I was originally using a working number 2, any line that was 2+ points off from what the JS system said, I was taking. When that cooled off I noticed a trend of 3.5+ difference still being hot. To date, when I've used the baseline of 3.5, it's correctly picked the spread 57.9% of the time. My sample size is only 38, so it's small. Just curious to hear if anyone else has messed around with this to see what kind of success it brings long term. Thanks.

winner2 · Answer

i almost never see a 3.5 difference on kenpom but if u ever do let me know

Brewmaster · Answer

I&#x27;m talking about the Jeff Sagarin ratings...not Ken Pom.  I just mentioned KenPom to draw a parallel since they are similar.  If anyone is curious, the only 2 plays SJ has tonight are BC &#x2B;9 (JS has Clemson by 5.2 so with a 9 point line the difference is 3.78) and Cinci -9.5 (Cinci by 13.7 for a diff of 4.15)

PINNACLE · Answer

Just out of curiousity, when there is a difference &gt; 3.5, who do you side with..... Sagarin / Kenpom or the Oddsmakers ???

aggieaccountant · Answer

Brewmaster-&#xD;&#xA;I have done a variation of this on college football and it worked really well.  There is a strength of schedule component within Sagarin&#x27;s ratings that I use and when it is off by 5 or more, I would play it and hit almost 59% for college football this season using it.  I like his rankings, but don&#x27;t find them quite as strong in college basketball.

Brewmaster · Answer

I&#x27;m not sure I understand your question.  To put it as simply as I can, I plug in the formula for each game and first determine if the Sagarin projection is more than 3.5 points off from the vegas spread.  If it is, then I take whatever side the line is skewed towards according to the Sagarin projection.Example:  If Sagarin says Boston College will win by 9, but the line has BC at -5, I would take Boston College at -9.  If Sagarin says BC will win by 5, but the line has BC at -9, I would fade it and take the &#x2B;9 on the other side.  Did that make more sense?

bopelinisucks · Answer

What are these numbers based off of?  Is it the ratings or the predictor numbers?

Brewmaster · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by aggieaccountant]  Brewmaster-&#xD;&#xA;I have done a variation of this on college football and it worked really well.  There is a strength of schedule component within Sagarin&#x27;s ratings that I use and when it is off by 5 or more, I would play it and hit almost 59% for college football this season using it.  I like his rankings, but don&#x27;t find them quite as strong in college basketball.  [/Quote]What made you use 5?  Trial and error?  Have you tried it for NBA or MLB?   I just recently stumbled upon his ratings, so I&#x27;m just trying to feel my way through this.  Thank you for that info.

Brewmaster · Answer

The rating

wrigleyswagers · Answer

jim sargin makes his money off of usa today and other people who buy is bs. I bet with my own money which makes me bet my own lines.

allbees · Answer

brewmaster, I have been tracking it for years. I can tell you anything you want to know.

Since 2004

Sagarin Pred diff from Opening line (rating - pinnacle opening line):

>= 3 total plays 2352, 1124 Away Cover for 47.8%

<=-3 total plays 2976, 1415 Home Cover for 47.5%

Sagarin regular rating

>=3 total plays 2710, 1322 Away Cover for 48.8%

<=-3 total plays 3233, 1530 Home Cover for 47.3%

PINNACLE · Answer

Yes. I was wondering which number you put more credence in, or which number you believe to be more "true".......and judging by your answer, you&#x27;re saying Sagarin. &#xD;&#xA;The reason I asked is because you&#x27;ll find many that will make the argument that the Oddsmakers line (Or what people insist on calling the "Vegas" line) will prove to be more "true" over time...

Brewmaster · Answer

Those number are pretty much in line with what I&#x27;ve been seeing.  Have you noticed a significant increase in accuracy when set a threshold like 3.5 and only move on those lines?  I&#x27;m wondering if my 3.5 threshold is too low and I need to be even more selective.  I&#x27;ve seen differences as high as 6&#x2B; in my short time tracking.

Brewmaster · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by PINNACLE]  Yes. I was wondering which number you put more credence in, or which number you believe to be more "true".......and judging by your answer, you&#x27;re saying Sagarin. &#xD;&#xA;The reason I asked is because you&#x27;ll find many that will make the argument that the Oddsmakers line (Or what people insist on calling the "Vegas" line) will prove to be more "true" over time...  [/Quote]I&#x27;ve actually tracked that and over the 110 games that I&#x27;ve looked at, the Sagarin line has been more accurate than the vegas line.  I&#x27;m only talking 110 games though and I&#x27;ve picked and chosen by spots, but it has been more accurate.  To go in a little deeper, through those 110 games, it&#x27;s correctly picked the favorite 43.9%, the fade 60.9% and when it disagrees with who it thinks the favorite is, it&#x27;s been 62.5% accurate

jacobjoe02 · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;What site do you go to when you follow his system?  Just curious.  Iv heard of JS but have never followed his system that closely.

PINNACLE · Answer

I hear ya Brewmaster and like you said, that is a very small sample size......yet still interesting.

Two schools of thought here in my opinion.

Sagarin, to my knowledge, deals exclusively with tangible data. The oddsmakers factor more than that into their numbers.

However, many view the so called "Vegas" opening line as kind of a generic baseline or a starting point in the books attempt to get an equal amount of dollars bet on both sides. Using this theory, some would suggest there may be some wiggle room in there to exploit a "bad" number". And furthermore, this is exactly why many bettors believe they have a distinct advantage early in the season, when these lines are supposedly "softer".

Brewmaster · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by jacobjoe02]  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;What site do you go to when you follow his system?  Just curious.  Iv heard of JS but have never followed his system that closely.    [/Quote]I built a spreadsheet to pull in and track the data from his website that I linked to above.

allbees · Answer

I have probably checked it every way you can think of.

Brewmaster · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by PINNACLE]  I hear ya Brewmaster and like you said, that is a very small sample size......yet still interesting.&#xD;&#xA;Two schools of thought here in my opinion. &#xD;&#xA;Sagarin, to my knowledge, deals exclusively with tangible data. The oddsmakers factor more than that into their numbers. &#xD;&#xA;However, many view the so called "Vegas" opening line as kind of a generic baseline or a starting point in the books attempt to get an equal amount of dollars bet on both sides. Using this theory, some would suggest there may be some wiggle room in there to exploit a "bad" number". And furthermore, this is exactly why many bettors believe they have a distinct advantage early in the season, when these lines are supposedly "softer".&#xD;&#xA;   [/Quote]You&#x27;re exactly right, it is all tangible data.  I just still feel like there&#x27;s something there...like I just have to look at it at the right angle in the right light...ha  I might be going down a rabbit hole, but I can&#x27;t help but thing there&#x27;s something here!

Brewmaster · Answer

And never got it to consistently hit above 50%?

gmitran · Answer

I use Sag ratings alot in CBB.  The strength of schedule is very helpful.  If you add 3-4 pts to home team ratings, the dif in team ratings comes pretty close to the betting line.

Stevierags · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by PINNACLE] &#xD;&#xA;I hear ya Brewmaster and like you said, that is a very small sample size......yet still interesting.&#xD;&#xA;Two schools of thought here in my opinion. &#xD;&#xA;Sagarin, to my knowledge, deals exclusively with tangible data. The oddsmakers factor more than that into their numbers. &#xD;&#xA;However, many view the so called "Vegas" opening line as kind of a generic baseline or a starting point in the books attempt to get an equal amount of dollars bet on both sides. Using this theory, some would suggest there may be some wiggle room in there to exploit a "bad" number". And furthermore, this is exactly why many bettors believe they have a distinct advantage early in the season, when these lines are supposedly "softer".&#xD;&#xA; [/Quote]This is a brilliant quote PINNACLE...............I set up a spreadsheet(program) where I keep my own power rankings in a fairly complicated math formula like Sagarins.........I fell it gives me a starting point to see if a line is really out of whack..........you are so on point stating Vegas makes their money on equal money on both sides.........that is why you hear a lot of people saying Vegas has set this line as a trap game.......I can guarantee after betting for 30&#x2B; years that Vegas hasn&#x27;t trapped themselves on a game, only us bettors........

thedegenerate · Answer

good thread.  i will comment when i have more time.

Jeff Sagarin

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