4 UNIT PLAY
Clemson/ Virginia Over 115: A couple of weeks ago I had the Over (112.5) in this game on Virginia's home floor and it was an easy winner as 126 points were scored in the game. I expect another on in the 120's here. The Clemson Tigers are not a great offensive team but they have been putting up some decent numbers as they have averaged 67 ppg in their last 7 games overall and 68.4 ppg in the ACC home games. Virginia has been tough at the defensive end all year as they have allowed just 51.9 ppg overall, but on the road that number jumps to 58.8 ppg, while in their last 3 ACC road games they have allowed 62.7 ppg. This Clemson offense should be able to hit that on thier home floor. Virginia has averaged 63.5 ppg overall and 62.9 ppg on the road and they should be able to get their fair share of points vs a Clemson team that has allowed 64.3 ppg in the ACC overall, including 64.8 ppg in their last 4 ACC games at home. Clemson's home games have averaged 122.1 ppg overall, while their ACC home games have averaged 132 ppg, with none of the 5 games putting up less than 126 points. Clemson's lowest scoring ACC game overall was 116 points at Boston Collage, while the rest of them have all hit at least 126 points. Virginia has been involved in much lower scoring ACC games as their conference games have averaged just 113.1 ppg, but their ACC Road games have averaged 116.8 ppg, while their road games overall have put up 121.7 ppg. Teams get virgini nto play at more their own pace on their home floors and I expect Clemson to pick up the pace in this one as well and get this game in the 120's.
3 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Georgia State -3.5 over JAMES MADISON: JMU
is just 9-28-1 ATS in their last 38 home games and just v4-12 ATS in
their last 16 games overall. GSU has struggled on the road in the CAA,
but they have won their last 2 conference games away from home and are
taking on a bad Dukes squad tonight. The Dukes come in having won just 1
game in their last games and have lost their last 2 at home by 5+
points each. That one win? That was a road win at a 1-25 Townson team,
in a game where they blew a 15 point half time lead to win by just 2
points. Defense will be key in this one and GSU has a HUGE edge in that
aspect of the game. The Panthers come in allowing just 58.7 ppg overall
and 61.4 ppg on the road, plus in their last 5 games overall (regulation
only) they have allowed just 56.8 ppg. No way the Dukes can even come
close to numbers like that. JMU did allowed just 56 points to Townson
the other night, but in their previous 5 games they allowed 77.4 ppg,
while in their first game vs the Panthers they allowed 74 points.
Georgia State isn't a good offensive team, but they have averaged 64.8
ppg (reg only) in their last 4 CAA games they should be able to score
plenty on this defense tonight. The Dukes do have the slight offensive
edge, but they will just not be able to come up with enough stops to
keep this one close. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against
homedogs or pick off a close win by 3 points or less over a conference
rival, playing only their 3rd game in a week. This play is 25-5 the last
5 seasons.
UNLV/ TCU Under 147: (Added) Write up to come and this will be a Google News Play.
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAY
Texas -2.5 over OKLAHOMA: Play against home teams as an underdog or pick off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 points or more. This play is 48-14 the last 5 seasons. despite coming off the Huge win over KSU, I still feel the longhorns are the team here. They are playing better having won their last 3 and even their recent losses vs top notch teams in the conference have been close. The Sooners were pick near the bottom of the Big 12 and are playing like that team of late. Longhorns should pull away late here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
William & Mary +17 over DREXEL: Play on road underdogs of 10 or more points off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals. This play is 44-14 since 1997.
Creighton/ Southern Illinois Under 141: (Added) S ILLINOIS is 21-8 UNDER versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game since 1997, while CREIGHTON is 16-4 UNDER after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
BEST OF LUCK EVERYONE
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