St Peter's/ Fairfield Under 120.5:
Just like the big one above, pace will play a huge role in this one.
Fairfield checks in at 267th in shots per game at 52.6 spg overall,
while in their last 3 they have shot the ball just 49.7 times per game.
St Peters comes in averaging 53.8 spg overall (221st), while in their
last 3 games they have put up just 48 spg. Fairfield has been playing
some excellent defense of late as they have allowed just 56.6 ppg on
34.1 % shooting and that's pretty awesome considering that St Peters
have has averaged just 53.9 ppg in their last 7 games and just 58 ppg
within the MAAC on the year. Suffice it to say St Peter's is probably
good for about 50 or 51 in this one. Fairfield has averaged 67.2 ppg in
conference play and they have average 67.5 ppg at home. St Peter's did
allow 85 points in their last game (Manhattan), but in their previous 4
games they allowed just 63.5 ppg,so this is a team that is improving on
defense. Both teams will walk the ball up the court, which will eat a
lot of clock, while we have just one team on the court that can score.
Im say we see a game of no more than 115.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Oklahoma State/ Missouri Under 143: Google News Play. In
the first meeting the teams combined for 151 points, thanks mainly to
the 79 points put up by a very average OSU squad. That has not sit well
with the Tigers and you can bet they will bring the defensive intensity
to this one. Since that loss to the Cowboys, the Tigers have gone 5-0
and have allowed just 62.4 ppg in the process. since that game Missouri
games have averaged just 131.8 ppg, while OSU games have averaged just
137.4 ppg over the same stretch. Missouri home games overall have
averaged 142.6 ppg, but their conference home games have averaged just
133.5 ppg. On the other side we see that OSU road games have averaged
138 ppg overall, while their Big 12 road games have averaged 140.7 ppg.
This game will be all about defensive intensity and while I do expect
about 75 from Missouri I can't see or expect more than 61 or 62 form the
Cowboys in this one. That still gives us a little buffer, just in case
Missouri hangs 80 on them here. I expect this one in the low 130's.
KEY TRENDS--- OKLAHOMA ST is 21-10 UNDER in road games versus good
shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 3 seasons,
while Frank Haith is 9-1 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing
team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) in all games he has coached since 1997.
Samford +17.5 over DAVIDSON: Davidson
has been tough at home this year as they are 11-1 there and have
outscored their opponents by 17.1 ppg in the process, while in the SoCon
they have gone 7-1 at home and have win every game by 18+ points. So
what would make me think that Samford can cover this one? Well a couple
of things. Samford is just 10-15 overall, but 7-7 in the SoCon and they
have dealt Davidson one of their two conference losses on the year. Next
we note that Samford's biggest conference loss on the year was by 16
points, while their biggest conference road loss is by just 11 points,
while they have gone 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS in SoCon road games. Next we
see that the last 4 in this series has been decided by 13 points or less
and finally we note that Davidson has a bracketbuster game with Wichita
State on deck, so a look-a-head could be in order. No doubt in the
world that Davidson is the better team here, but this is just too many
points vs a conference opponent that has already beaten them on the year
and has rarely been blown out this year. I look for about a 10 point
Davidson win here.
5 POINT TEASER--- Notre Dame -3 & Villanova +7
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
Richmond +14.5 over ST LOUIS: Richmond
has actually won the last 2 SU in this series, while 6 of the 7 in the
series has been decided by 13 or less. St Louis is having a fine season,
but coming off games vs Dayton, St Joes and LaSalle they may be a bit
flat for this one. Look for the Spiders to keep it close. RICHMOND is 14-5 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons, while SAINT LOUIS is 1-9 ATS after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 15 or less fouls since 1997.
New Mexico -1 over SAN DIEGO STATE: The
Lobos have been on a tear of late as they have won 5 in a row and have
held those opponents to just 47 ppg. the Aztecs have averaged 70.1 ppg
on the year, but are struggling to score of late as they have averaged
just 62.1 ppg in their last 6 games. SDSU has been awesome at home
(15-1), but tonight the Lobo's, behind their defense should walk away
with a huge road win here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
UConn/ Depaul Under 147.5: Play
Under - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points
(CONNECTICUT) - after allowing 80 points or more in a loss to a
conference rival against opponent off a road loss. This play is 32-8 the
last 5 seasons.
Iona -8.5 Over RIDER: IONA is 9-2 ATS in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons, while RIDER is 13-30 ATS in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game since 1997.
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