Miami/ Virginia Tech Over 131.5:
For much of this year Tech has played great defense, but it has started
to break down at that end of the floor as they have allowed 68.3 ppg in
their last 6 games, including allowing 70.8 ppg in their last 4 games.
Now they have to face a Miami squad that has been solid offensively of
late. Yes Miami's last 2 games went to OT, but they have still averaged
71.2 ppg in their last 6 games during regulation. at home this year the
Canes have averaged 75.4 ppg, while they have average (in Regulation)
72.3 ppg in their conference home games. Tech has struggled to score of
late as they have have averaged just 62.2 ppg in their last 5 games,
while on the road this year they have averaged just 61.4 ppg, but they
should have some success vs a Miami team that has allowed 68.5 ppg at
home, including 73.3 (regulation Only0 in their 3 ACC home games. Miami
likes the uptempo pace and tey should get it on their home floor. The
uptempo game should help Tech get their points, while Miami will score
plenty of their own points vs a tiring Hokie defense. This one should
flirt with 140 points.
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TOP PLAYS
3 UNIT PLAY
Miami/ Virginia Tech Over 131.5:
For much of this year Tech has played great defense, but it has started
to break down at that end of the floor as they have allowed 68.3 ppg in
their last 6 games, including allowing 70.8 ppg in their last 4 games.
Now they have to face a Miami squad that has been solid offensively of
late. Yes Miami's last 2 games went to OT, but they have still averaged
71.2 ppg in their last 6 games during regulation. at home this year the
Canes have averaged 75.4 ppg, while they have average (in Regulation)
72.3 ppg in their conference home games. Tech has struggled to score of
late as they have have averaged just 62.2 ppg in their last 5 games,
while on the road this year they have averaged just 61.4 ppg, but they
should have some success vs a Miami team that has allowed 68.5 ppg at
home, including 73.3 (regulation Only0 in their 3 ACC home games. Miami
likes the uptempo pace and tey should get it on their home floor. The
uptempo game should help Tech get their points, while Miami will score
plenty of their own points vs a tiring Hokie defense. This one should
flirt with 140 points.
YOUNGSTOWN STATE PK over Butler: (Added) The
Bulldogs are far removed from the last two years where they ended up in
the NCAA Title game both years as they come in tied for 5th in the
league with a 7-6 mark, while overall they have posted a 13-12 record.
Not very impressive for this team. The Bulldogs have struggled of late
as they have won just 1 of their last 4 games and an offense that has
not been very good overall (63.2), has been even worse in the last 4
games as they have averaged just 58.8 ppg over that stretch. Overall
shooting has been a problem for the Bulldogs this year as they are 313th
in FG% (40.0%), 336th in 3pt shooting (28.1 %) and 313th in FT shooting
(63.5%). This is a team with some offensive problems. The beyond the
arc numbers are very disturbing to them, and it should play a big role
in this one. Butler is one of the worst 3pt shooting teams in the nation
as they hit just 28.1 % of their long range shots overall, including
just 26.9% in division 1 play and just 26.5% on the road. Now in
contrast the penguins are 5th in the nation in 3-pointers made per game
(9.1) and 27th in 3-pt % (38.8 %). Overall Youngstown State has averaged
67.1 ppg, while in their last 5 games they have averaged 69 ppg on
46.2% shooting overall and 39.5% shooting form long range. Defensively
the overall numbers look pretty even, but Butler has allowed 66.1 ppg on
the road, while the Penguins have allowed just 57.4 ppg at home.
Butler is having problems scoring right now and it will not get better
here where the penguins have been very stingy. Youngstown State has the
edge at both ends of the floor, they are playing better ball right now
and they are at home in a pick'em game. Ill roll with the Penguins in
this one.
4 UNIT PLAY
Oregon State/ Washington State Under 150.5: (Added) The
Last time these teams met their was 157 points scored in the game, but i
feel this time will be different. In each of OSU's last 6 games, just
one of those games posted more than tonight's total, with an average of
145.5 ppg being scored in that stretch. The Beavers do score a ton of
points at home (86 ppg) and Washington State has allowed 73.4 ppg on the
road, But the Cougars defense has been playing better of late as they
have allowed just 69.4 ppg in their last 5 games and I feel that they
can hold OSU to the low to mid 70's at best here. Washington state will
look to slow the game down, especially when they head out on the road,
where their Pac-12 road games have averaged 135.4 ppg. During their
pre-Pac-12 schedule the Cougars where scoring a ton on the road, but in
their 5 conference road games they have averaged just 62.6 ppg. OSU
comes in having allowed 70.7 ppg at home overall and 95.8 ppg in their
Pac-12 home games, but some of those numbers are a bit skewered thanks
to the 4 OT game vs Stanford. Still this is not a great defense, but
they have the ability to hold this weak Wazzu offense, that will not
run, below 70 points in this one. I expect a game with no more than 145
in this one. KEY TRENDS--- OREGON ST is 13-4 UNDER after 2 or
more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons, while WASHINGTON ST is
24-7 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of
>=45% since 1997.
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TOP PLAYS
5 UNIT PLAY
YOUNGSTOWN STATE PK over Butler: (Added) The
Bulldogs are far removed from the last two years where they ended up in
the NCAA Title game both years as they come in tied for 5th in the
league with a 7-6 mark, while overall they have posted a 13-12 record.
Not very impressive for this team. The Bulldogs have struggled of late
as they have won just 1 of their last 4 games and an offense that has
not been very good overall (63.2), has been even worse in the last 4
games as they have averaged just 58.8 ppg over that stretch. Overall
shooting has been a problem for the Bulldogs this year as they are 313th
in FG% (40.0%), 336th in 3pt shooting (28.1 %) and 313th in FT shooting
(63.5%). This is a team with some offensive problems. The beyond the
arc numbers are very disturbing to them, and it should play a big role
in this one. Butler is one of the worst 3pt shooting teams in the nation
as they hit just 28.1 % of their long range shots overall, including
just 26.9% in division 1 play and just 26.5% on the road. Now in
contrast the penguins are 5th in the nation in 3-pointers made per game
(9.1) and 27th in 3-pt % (38.8 %). Overall Youngstown State has averaged
67.1 ppg, while in their last 5 games they have averaged 69 ppg on
46.2% shooting overall and 39.5% shooting form long range. Defensively
the overall numbers look pretty even, but Butler has allowed 66.1 ppg on
the road, while the Penguins have allowed just 57.4 ppg at home.
Butler is having problems scoring right now and it will not get better
here where the penguins have been very stingy. Youngstown State has the
edge at both ends of the floor, they are playing better ball right now
and they are at home in a pick'em game. Ill roll with the Penguins in
this one.
4 UNIT PLAY
Oregon State/ Washington State Under 150.5: (Added) The
Last time these teams met their was 157 points scored in the game, but i
feel this time will be different. In each of OSU's last 6 games, just
one of those games posted more than tonight's total, with an average of
145.5 ppg being scored in that stretch. The Beavers do score a ton of
points at home (86 ppg) and Washington State has allowed 73.4 ppg on the
road, But the Cougars defense has been playing better of late as they
have allowed just 69.4 ppg in their last 5 games and I feel that they
can hold OSU to the low to mid 70's at best here. Washington state will
look to slow the game down, especially when they head out on the road,
where their Pac-12 road games have averaged 135.4 ppg. During their
pre-Pac-12 schedule the Cougars where scoring a ton on the road, but in
their 5 conference road games they have averaged just 62.6 ppg. OSU
comes in having allowed 70.7 ppg at home overall and 95.8 ppg in their
Pac-12 home games, but some of those numbers are a bit skewered thanks
to the 4 OT game vs Stanford. Still this is not a great defense, but
they have the ability to hold this weak Wazzu offense, that will not
run, below 70 points in this one. I expect a game with no more than 145
in this one. KEY TRENDS--- OREGON ST is 13-4 UNDER after 2 or
more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons, while WASHINGTON ST is
24-7 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of
>=45% since 1997.
Northwestern/ Iowa Under 147.5: (Added)
Northwestern is favorite by 7 and technically the favored home team
should have the game at their pace. Right? Well im banking on it here.
The pace of the Cats is in the 130's and not the high 140's.
Northwestern's home games have averaged just 131.1 ppg on the year,
while their Big 10 home games have averaged 132.8 ppg. Iowa does like to
run and push tempo and they have scored 74.2 ppg overall and 70 ppg on
the road overall, but they will be facing a Wildcat team that has
allowed just 61.3 ppg overall at home, including just 63.8 ppg in their
Big 10 home games. Northwestern does average 69.6 ppg overall and 69.9
ppg at home, but they are not a team that pushes the ball as they have
averaged just 53.3 shots per game, which is 239th in the country.
Because of their slower pace I don't expect them to fully take advantage
of a bad Iowa defense that has allowed 80 ppg on the road. In big 10
play Northwestern has scored more than 74 points just twice and even if
they do hit 77 points in this one (I think 75 is max), I just don't see
iowa getting more than 70 vs this tough Cats defense. This one should be
played in the high 130's.
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
Western Kentucky +15 over MTSU:
The Blue raiders have been impressive at 202 on the year and 12-0 at
home, but despite that perfect mark at home they have still only won
just 1 of their last 4 at home by more than 15 and have outscored their
home foes by 13.2 ppg on the year. WKU is playing better right now,
having won 3 of their last 4 and should be able to hang with the Blue
Raiders here.
St Mary's +3.5 over GONZAGA: (Added)Going
through an entire conference schedule unscathed is hard to do, but I
feel that St Mary's has the makeup to doi just that. This team has been
dynamite at both end and have out scored their opponents by 16.1 ppg on
the year. This team will not be intimidated by the Zags in this one
after they won by 21 points vs them back in January, plus in their last
visit here they took the game 73-71, so playing here will not intimidate
them either. The Zags are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and
have really struggled to beat some of the weaker teams of late. The
Gaels have edges at both ends of the floor, they are playing with much
more confidence than the Zags right now and they know how to win in this
building. I expect the outright win here by the Gaels.
0
3 unit play Card is final
Northwestern/ Iowa Under 147.5: (Added)
Northwestern is favorite by 7 and technically the favored home team
should have the game at their pace. Right? Well im banking on it here.
The pace of the Cats is in the 130's and not the high 140's.
Northwestern's home games have averaged just 131.1 ppg on the year,
while their Big 10 home games have averaged 132.8 ppg. Iowa does like to
run and push tempo and they have scored 74.2 ppg overall and 70 ppg on
the road overall, but they will be facing a Wildcat team that has
allowed just 61.3 ppg overall at home, including just 63.8 ppg in their
Big 10 home games. Northwestern does average 69.6 ppg overall and 69.9
ppg at home, but they are not a team that pushes the ball as they have
averaged just 53.3 shots per game, which is 239th in the country.
Because of their slower pace I don't expect them to fully take advantage
of a bad Iowa defense that has allowed 80 ppg on the road. In big 10
play Northwestern has scored more than 74 points just twice and even if
they do hit 77 points in this one (I think 75 is max), I just don't see
iowa getting more than 70 vs this tough Cats defense. This one should be
played in the high 130's.
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
Western Kentucky +15 over MTSU:
The Blue raiders have been impressive at 202 on the year and 12-0 at
home, but despite that perfect mark at home they have still only won
just 1 of their last 4 at home by more than 15 and have outscored their
home foes by 13.2 ppg on the year. WKU is playing better right now,
having won 3 of their last 4 and should be able to hang with the Blue
Raiders here.
St Mary's +3.5 over GONZAGA: (Added)Going
through an entire conference schedule unscathed is hard to do, but I
feel that St Mary's has the makeup to doi just that. This team has been
dynamite at both end and have out scored their opponents by 16.1 ppg on
the year. This team will not be intimidated by the Zags in this one
after they won by 21 points vs them back in January, plus in their last
visit here they took the game 73-71, so playing here will not intimidate
them either. The Zags are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and
have really struggled to beat some of the weaker teams of late. The
Gaels have edges at both ends of the floor, they are playing with much
more confidence than the Zags right now and they know how to win in this
building. I expect the outright win here by the Gaels.
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