Kentucky ATS vs SJU Play and Writeup

I'm not locking in the number yet, I liked it at 22.5 and would play it at that number too, but I have a feeling it's going to crash a little bit more and I'll get a shorter # to lay than the current 21.5 by tip.

I think tonight's game presents a perfect opportunity to fade an SJU team playing a focused, motivated Kentucky team. A lot of posters here are anticipating a lookahead by Kentucky to Saturday's showcase game against UNC, but I disagree entirely. Reading some local clippings, it appears as though Kentucky's lookahead was its last game against Portland, as they were looking at this week overall as two important games.

Let's take a look at that Portland/Kentucky game. Kentucky was a 29.5 point favorite, got outrebounded by one (a huge rarity for two teams so far apart on the talent spectrum) and allowed Portland to make 11/23 from behind the arc. Despite these severe occurrences, Kentucky still managed to win the game by 24 points. That just goes to show the kind of talent level we're dealing with here, it's truly remarkable and it's something that few teams over the past decade have ever displayed. This team has NBA players 1-7, three of whom are projected to be top ten picks, and another 2 or 3 who are projected to go somewhere in the first round.

Off that dismal performance on the boards and defending the perimeter, Cal will have gotten the most out of his players in practice this week, particularly in regards to defensive intensity, and that is precisely what you need the most when you're looking for a favorite to win by 22+. This team will have the loud Rupp crowd behind them in their first big home game of the season on national TV, and will be as focused as can be against a Big East opponent who played in the dance last season. Kentucky presses and traps defensively at times themselves, so the SJU press won't really take them by surprise or cause any trouble for the Cats.

Now on the SJU side. I don't know how many of you have actually watched this team play, but if you have, you would agree with me that this is a poor basketball team with no offensive identity whatsoever. Poor is a relative term, but when you have to scratch and claw to beat Lehigh at home and have a difficult time shaking William and Mary, it's safe to say that you're very far from elite. SJU lost to a TAMU team playing without its best player, at the Garden no less. They also lost to an Arizona team that is in a comparable position to SJU with a lot of young talent coming in.

SJU is EXTREMELY poor on offense. None of their guys are steady jumpshooters, their point guard constantly pushes the ball when there is no break opportunity to be had. The one relatively steady offensive presence they have is Gods Gift, and I'm not sold on him yet either. He doesn't really have a post move, he just bullies lesser, smaller competition. SJU is skinny and undersized everywhere else aside from Achiuwa, which bodes poorly going into a game facing an elite squad motivated to rebound well. I also anticipate UK driving a lot early which can draw fouls on Gods Gift too. SJU will be taking a lot of contested jumpers tonight with how Kentucky plans on playing them, and I anticipate an EXTREMELY low shooting percentage.

Another thing to note is these young kids all came to play for Lavin. He is the man who recruited them, who convinced them that SJU is on the uptick and is where these recruits can get the most out of their college playing careers. Not having him tonight is going to be an issue when it comes to weathering runs/having productive timeouts. They are also playing for the time being without 3 of those recruits, all of whom would be starters and who would arguably be 3 of their 4 best players overall (this is known and factored in the line, but a lot of posters here seem to be overlooking that fact and just claiming that this current SJU team is talented enough to cover the big #). This is SJU's FIRST ROAD GAME OF THE SEASON, in an impossible environment with no sophomore leadership, let alone legit vet leadership.

Bottom line, I think Kentucky is going to come at SJU hard and flat out throttle them. 3 unit play for me which is rare in college hoops. Good luck to all tonight.

I know it's a long writeup. I don't post a ton of cbb plays so figured I might as well make it worth the while.

ill bite......st johns hasnt been impressive really in any game yet this year....lavin isnt making the trip....the only negative is if kientucky is looking past them to unc sat......but i will lay the points

Great write up. And the line is down to 21.5. 

Just a side note: the only time to take a team is touted and publicized as this UK team, in my opinion, is when the number is so ugly-looking that you want to take the other side. The oddsmakers seem to have done their job on this one.

this* touted and publicized

st johns is too young to even try to compete in tonights game

BEATDOWN

Johnnies +22

hope you hit,my son will be at the game PS what do you think about the over??

How about Kentucky 1H -12.5??? 

Keep doing what you're doing. Thanks for the insight.

you think the line will drop before tip off?

I would lay off 1H, but look for a 2H UK play tonight. 

Great write-up!  Also, the only teams that cover at Rupp have some three point shooters that all of the sudden get hot.  This has been the same for years, and St Johns don't have it.  Per Kenpom's #'s, St Johns FTA/FGA is 57.7% so they are aggressive, but they won't be going down low too much as UK's defense will smother them.  I don't see St Johns getting to the rack much, and much less getting to the line at a 57.7% clip.  This is how they've been surviving lately, because they have better athletes than their opponents and have been attacking, but this will be hard to do against the length of UK inside and on the perimeter.  On top of that, St Johns is not a great free throw shooting team at about 64.7%.