3-2 posted record on Covers, last post was on 12/20
Had some extra time this morning to put together some thoughts on tonight’s feature match-up in the MAAC
Play: Manhattan / Iona Over 162.5
Since Tim Cluess arrived at Iona in 2011, the Gaels have possessed one of the most entertaining offenses to watch in the country in my opinion. They play fast, don’t turn the ball over, share the ball, and make shots. This year is no different. In fact, you could argue this is the most offensively proficient team in Cluess’ tenure. Their adjO is 14th best in the country at 1.170 ppp – buoyed by the 4th best effective FG%, 11th best TO%, and 6th best 3P%. This is even more impressive when you factor in that Iona played a top 20 non-conference schedule.
But most know that Iona’s offense is good, and of course is factored into their totals. So what is the angle tonight? To me, the value presents itself when you consider the tempo that each team plays at, factored against the style of opponent that both Iona and Manhattan have faced thus far in conference play. When looking at conference games only, the MAAC is the fastest paced conference in the country – with each game averaging 68.9 possessions. In fact, 5 of the 11 teams currently rank in the top 100 nationally with respect to pace: Niagara (#14), Iona (#21), Manhattan (#40), Quinnipiac (#61), and Monmouth (#88).
The MAAC plays a true balanced schedule with each team facing one another home and away. Yet despite being just beyond the half-way point of the conference schedule, both Iona and Manhattan have only played 3 of the possible 8 games against the similarly fast paced conference opponents. Despite this, Iona has scored 155+ in every conference game except vs snail St Peters and saw finals of 210, 160, and 168 vs fast paced Niagara and Quinnipiac. Manhattan likewise saw two of their three highest finals in conference play come vs Quinnipiac.
Detractors of this play could argue that backing an over in this range is risky since it involves a Manhattan team sporting the best adjD in the MAAC, and the only team allowing less than 1.00 ppp (0.937) in conference play. But when you dig a little deeper, you see that they have allowed 1.00 ppp in their L6. In fact, the five best offensive performances against them in conference have come in their last 6 games; and if it wasn’t for a 51 point on 71 possession stinker put up by Rider, the Jaspers have allowed 1.05 ppp in that span.
Why is this important? Tonight they travel to Hynes to face not only the best offensive team in the conference—but one that just absolutely lights it up at home. Through 10 conference games, the Gaels sport an adjO of 120.7. But looking at their performances at home is even more impressive with ppp’s so far of: 1.20, 1.53(!!!), 1.25, 1.20, 1.28, and 1.20!
One last angle is a consistent theme that I mention when discussing Over plays and that is scoring while no time is coming off of the clock. And that trait should certainly come into play in tonight’s game as Manhattan sports the country’s best FTA/FGA. In fact, only 1 other team nationally gets a bigger % of their offensive point distribution from the charity stripe. But not only should we see the Jaspers at the line tonight, Iona should get their fair share of FTA as well as only 2 other teams in the country have a higher FTA/FGA ratio on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, 31.6% of the points that Manhattan gives up, comes from the FT line (#3 nationally).
This certainly could go under tonight, but the ingredients are there for a high-scoring, very entertaining game involving two teams that will fight it out down the stretch for the auto-bid from the MAAC.
Good luck if you make a play 
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