Mar 7 Plays

Fairfield ML -135 vs St. Peter's

4 Units

*Best # on FD

St. Pete's lines have been a bit short all season due to some name recognition after last season's magical run. This will be our last chance this year to take advantage of it. What's even better is they are coming off two 1-point wins vs badly regressing teams in Niagara and Siena (combined 1-10 in past 3 weeks) and Fairfield is coming off 2 tough 1-point losses to improved teams in the last 3 weeks. St. Pete's win was also an emotional senior night, OT affair on Saturday while Fairfield has been chilling since Thursday. The mirroring records are also deceptive as Fairfield played a much tougher non-conference and already comfortably beat St. Pete's twice this year with the 2nd game in Jersey City not being as close as final score indicates. Stags have been more competitive against common opponents since those games as well. 

UMass Lowell -11 vs New Hampshire (-110)

3 Units

*Best # on FD

This is such a bad spot for New Hampshire. They are coming off an emotional, home crowd-supported come from behind win in the quarterfinal in which they trailed most of the game. New Hampshire is an atrocious road team and benefited from closing the season with 4 of 5 games at home which included a 1 pt win over bottom feeder NJIT who they were also fortunate to beat in OT earlier in the month as well. Fortunately for us, these factors have contributed to an overall winning record for NH coming into this game and shortened this line a bit. This is a semifinal but it is being played in Lowell, making it a true kryptonite road game for NH. They just lost by 37 in Lowell a week ago. Lastly, Lowell is coming off an essential scrimmage at home where their starters averaged 23 minutes. River Hawks by 15+.

Feels like another Hofstra

But they are at home so maybe not

Team off back to back massacres at home in conference having to win again by DD

GL

@smellybunty

Slightly similar I suppose if we take Monday's miniscule sample size. My record was outrageous this past wk and included plenty of spots like this. Sunday alone included, UCF, Montana St, Towson, Charleston, Hofstra (vs Bill n Mary) all in a similar scenario. No homecourt (except UCF) in those situations either, like you mentioned.

Get it Bookie! Great info ... 

Good luck BC.  

Good luck 

@Bookie_Crushers

 Nice write up book  Only bad thing for me is I don’t see this game on Draft Kings. 

@Bookie_Crushers

 Let’s get it

@Bookie_Crushers

@Manny_Fizzle

Can you not bet Mass teams on DK?

@Bookie_Crushers

 No I can bet UMass game & Umass Lowell. I see those 2 games on DK. Just don’t see the Fairfield/St. Peters game.  I live in Connecticut but I don’t think that would make a difference. 

If DayDay Hall is playing tonight for SF Austin that seems like an extremely safe bet on the Lumberjacks. I haven't found any update on his status lately.

@Bookie_Crushers

 According to yahoo sports this game is being played in Burlington Vermont which is approximately 3 hours away for both teams. Not saying they will not cover, but this does not seem to be home cooking 

@Manny_Fizzle

 Fairfield is in Connecticut bro lol .. of course you can’t bet em 

nobody wins betting that conference anyway imo same as SWAC

@WesWin

 Incorrect.

Timberwolves ML -130 vs 76ers

3 Units

*Best # on FanDuel

This is a tough spot to ignore given the consecutive barnburners the 76ers just played in, including last night. Barnburners lead to more effortful minutes and Embiid, Harden, and Maxey are all averaging around 40 minutes a game on this 5 game road trip with tonight being the last leg before they return home for some easy wins. This was a successful road trip for the 6ers, regardless of a win tonight, given that they have gone 3-0 against the Eastern Conference, including a win at Milwaukee. The Twolves are inarguably playing their best ball of the season right now and are returning home with 2 extra days of rest. Every game changes your seeding in the Western Conference right now so full effort nights off really aren't allowed either. I recommend 3 Units on this motivational angle; Twolves should win comfortably in a game the 76ers can afford to drop.

@supermanbets

 Lol  Thanks buddy! I think it’s dumb you can’t bet teams in your own state. 

@Manny_Fizzle

 It is dumb. I agree. If these kids want to bet on or against themselves, they’ll find a way. 

Merrimack ML -175 vs Fairleigh Dickinson

5.2 Units to win 3

*Best # on FD

Ok I'll bite here. NCAA rules prevent Merrimack from playing in the tourney so FD has already locked up the auto-bid meaning this is a tune-up/exhibition game for the Knights and Merrimack's Super Bowl in front of their home crowd. Merrimack was swept by FD this season, but if you look closely, you'll see that FD had to stage significant 2nd half comebacks in both games where they had 2 of their highest 3 pt% shooting halves of the season in both those 2nd halves. Without the matching motivation for this affair, it is tough to imagine that happening a third time or FD coming out hotter than the Warriors in this one. Merrimack has not lost since January and has higher margins against all common opponents since then as well. Their zone D, bolstered by home crowd, should nicely offset FD's zone offense with questionable incentives tonight. Take the safe ML bet here.

Yeah 

1-2-1 Far from a gem tonight. But trust the process n all that jazz.

YTD: 228-122-6 +190 Units

2 very smart ML winners