1-1 YTD posted on Covers, last post on 12/10
At first glance, I wasn’t going to get involved in card with only 2 games on tap tonight. But the more I dug into Maryland, an interesting dichotomy began to appear.
Play: Maryland / Boston College Over 143
The Terrapins come into tonight with the #43 adjD in the country, only allowing 0.959 ppp – not the ideal defense to have involved in an Over play. However, these season to date defensive statistics are a bit skewed by two outstanding defensive performances against Abilene Christian (0.69 ppp) and Marist (0.65 ppp) – both teams that had offenses ranked in the bottom 20 nationally. Remove those games, and Maryland is giving up 1.02 ppp. Dig a little further, and you see that they have given up an average of 1.12 ppp (and never less than 1.00 ppp) in the four games vs offenses ranked in the top 100. And what does BC enter tonight’s game at? You guessed it, in the top 100 as the Eagles are currently #30 in adjO, scoring 1.127 ppp.
On the flip side, Maryland shouldn’t struggle to put the ball in the basket as BC has only held 1 of 9 opponents this season under 1.05 ppp (Sacred Heart). And with MD nearly averaging 70 possessions per game, and recent games for BC vs fast paced Purdue and USC hitting 68 possessions – I would expect a minimum of 65 possessions tonight (KenPom predicts 66). That possession count with both offenses poised to score over 1.10 ppp gets this game into mid-140’s.
Under backers may point to the fact that last year’s match-ups played to totals of 123 and 127. My argument would be that both teams are playing faster, more efficient on offense, and less efficient on defense this season.
Good luck if you decide to make a play 
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