Posted:
#1
So, here I am again after the past few winning days. Since I have not been posting regularly for the past few years I'm going to ease back into things. Take it for what it's worth but I have identified a major mismatch for tonight and the trends also support this.
I would strongly side with St. Josephs tonight as they will absolutely blitz Fordham in my opinion. Both teams are mediocre, true, but St. Josephs has the better talent and in a game such as this I will take the better talent. Since the point spread is high that shows me that a blowout is entirely possible and then looking into the trends one can find that Fordham is a putrid 1-7-1 ATS in the last 9 including 0-5-1 in St. Josephs. Furthermore, the favorite is a steady 7-1-1- ATS which makes it enough for me to play it.
Akron is also in an interesting spot as they take on Bowling Green. Both teams come in with 10 wins but when you look deeper into this matchup you find that Bowling Green is just 1-4 ATS against Akron. I thought about just taking the Money Line on this as I expect a close match but they shoot 70% from the free throw line and that's good enough for me to see them cover a short leash with potential free throw shooting deciding the outcome.
Finally, Indiana State is catching a mere 3 1/2 points at home against Illinois State. I do think that Illinois State is the superior squad but not enough that they should be dropping the points on the road when they are 0-7 ATS in Indiana State and 5-16 ATS in the past 21. That's enough of a sample size for me to make them a play.
I also am posting Toledo as they have smashed Ohio the past few meetings and are a considerably better team. While I am confident that the plays will come out to 4-0 and I am never guaranteeing it. I can only do what I can do to help given knowledge and analytics.
St. Joseph's -9 1/2
Akron -3 1/2
Indiana State +3 1/2
Toldeo -2 1/2
As always, good luck to all....
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