28-16 this past week helped turn around a shit start. I'll keep throwing darts.
Bryant -3.5
Experience/continuity carries a lot of weight with me, especially this day in age in college hoops, so I'll probably be on Bryant quite a bit (2nd time this year). They just went into Buffalo and won easily on Thursday, so playing in a foreign gym doesn't bother me here. I just don't know where Delaware is going to get their points. From a metrics standpoint, they don't look terrible, but they have yet to play a team that is ranked better than 218th in Kenpom rankings. This is a LARGE step up in competition for the Blue Hens. With the pace that Bryant plays at (6th fastest in the country currently), and how they create second chances on the offensive glass, there will just be too many easier looks for the Bulldogs.
FIU/Howard Under 158
This total has a trappy feel to it, being so high, but I can't come up with where Howard scores from. Start with Howard having the 328th average poss. length, and FIU having the 302nd offensive efficiency. FIU takes away the 3pt shot, which is where the Bison want to score from, and Howard does a fairly decent job at defending without fouling. Not a lot of trips to the foul line, and poor shooting keep this one under that number for me.
North Texas +4.5
There is a bit of noise around McNeese St this year after last years success, and Will Wade gaining major college basketball attention again, but this is too many points against a really good Mean Green team. UNT defends their ass off, as shown at Minnesota last week, and holding the Gophers to 14 first half points. But its the lack of defensive discipline from the Cowboys that concerns me. If they don't turn you over, you're going to get a good look, and UNT has experienced guards who take care of the ball.
North Florida -5.5
This one should be about 10 in my estimation. North Florida is 81st in offense efficiency, doesn't turn the ball over, and scores on different levels. While Asheville apparently doesn't know how to score the basketball. They are sub 60% from the foul line as a team, albeit only about 40 attempts, but on the road, you need those points. They also haven't played in 9 days, so if they don't shake the rust off quickly, this game could be out of hand early. I just think the Ospreys offense will end up being too much for UNC-Ashevilles defense.
Northern Colorado +11
NoCo has played a true road game already this year at Boulder, a game they lost by 2 in double OT, so I have little fear of the Bears hitting the road and not being able to handle it. They don't turn the ball over and have an above average efficiency, while Wazzu isn't a defense that is causing coaches to lose sleep. Double digits in this game is just too many for me to pass up.
GL everyone, and go teams that play in the northern part of their state!
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