Monday Bedlam

Tonight I am playing on Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma (#4) travels back to the "hell hole" tonight for the inner state rivalry game versus Oklahoma State (aka..Bedlam)

It has been almost a year since the available space on the bulletin board in Oklahoma State's locker room was reduced by the comments of Oklahoma's Head Coach Jeff Capel, who accidentally was caught on camera yelling to his team to “Hurry up and take a shower and get the hell out of this hell-hole” after beating Oklahoma State in Stillwater last season.

Those of you familiar with my betting ideology know that I love situations where ranked teams with great SU records take to the road...especially whn the road team has a sold out unrulry crowd. I also like when the road foe will be the toughest team that the ranked opponent has faced on the road to date. (I consider Oklahoma State tougher the Arkansas, where Oklahoma lost SU, BTW)  These situations are extaordinarily difficult for college kids to get focused, especially when the home team has a chance at winning and knows it. I am especially interested in tonights game given Oklahoma's historical trouble getting up for road games and Monday Night games (matters are made way worse when the teams they are playing are good teams.) The Sooners are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 road games, 18-38-2 ATS in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 18-40-2 ATS in their last 60 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and on Monday are 3-7-1 ATSin  their last 11 Monday games.

In addition to revenge tonight Oklahoma State brings a 9-1 SU home reocrd (the only loss coming 97-95 to Missouri) this is far above the .600 at home mark.

I think Oklahoma's number one ATS problem is at the free throw line where their brains seem to turn to jello  on the road. They shoot 67% from the line on the season but only 55% on the road.On the flip side Oklahoma State is money from the charity stripe at home improving from 72% overall to one of the tops in the nation at 78% at home. A few extrapoints in a pick'em type sitation is a monster. Also consider Oklahoma State in nailing 3 pointers at a 41% clip at home on the season averaging 10-24 per game from beyond the arc (ranked 2nd in the nation in this catagory).  OKSU also is ranked #4 in overall scoring at 85 points per game.

Tonight the Sooners exit the top 10 and come back to earth after getting torched by an OKSU team I think will go wire to wire.

Oklahoma State +3 (wait for the 3, it will come)


   

Sorry I took Sunday off from posting. was 1-2 Saturday, but felt I deserved a better fate after all plays were covering in the 2nd Half. I will have losing days and questionable plays, but over time values + situational advantages equals + bankroll.

That]s OKAY, 85% of the people betting are against me as of right now. Me and the sportsbook directors will be routing for Oklahoma State.

I got it from a website that (I am not allowed to mention on Covers) but is widely known as a source for displaying real time betting %'s.

This number does not reflect the total amounts bet, but the number of bets placed.

I would not be surprised if 85 % was on Oklahoma as they are #5 in the country vs. un-ranked opponent. Public never bets against top 10 teams vs. un-ranked, ever.

Either way GL

90% of people on OU? 

OSU for me please!

The Sooners are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 road games, 18-38-2 ATS in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 18-40-2 ATS in their last 60 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and on Monday are 3-7-1 ATSin  their last 11 Monday games.

What do these stats have to do with the current OU team?  I understand your reasoning about revenge, OU's play on the road this year, how hard it is for kids to concentrate in loud enviroments and of course the line movement and % on OU.  Why throw in useless stats that don't reflect the current OU team?

roll a fatty for me

Ok, this is a really good question...

Trends are NOT a great way to exclusively to pick winners. Anytime you go into a game match-up page you will see that their are always a bunch of random  good trends and bad trends for each team.

The real key to using trends in handicapping is trying to find trends that have consistency and also that contradict what the opponent has done consistently.

You are absolutely correct in the circumstance that...example... the Milwaukee Bucks were real bad against the spread this year (but that was without Michael Redd) ...So if you looked at the trends that say Milwaukee is 0-5 ATS last 5, it would be misleading if Michael Redd Suddenly dressed. You really wouldn't be getting the true 0-5 ATS Bucks with Redd in the line-up.

Your assumption about Oklahoma U is correct too...that 17-35-2 =54 road games (is more then any active OU player has been around for)...

However....That being said.... Isn't it curious...that no matter who the players are... that OU continues to struggle in these sitautions year in and year out CONSISTANTLY.How is this possible if the spreads are supposed to make games 50/50 over a long period of  time that OU continualy can't get up and even cover  road games ATS???

The answer lies within the numbers...there is obviously "something" (Who knows in this case....flying out of Oklahoma a pain? Too much of a change of scenary/culture shock leaving the campus? Change of drinking water? Bad travelling scheduelrs in the Athletic department who scheduele connecting flights and hotels next to a all night Hooters..... a lot of times the "In-house" hiring of coaches who preach the same stuff as the previous head coach perpetuates the bad habits. (In the NBA its the same guys recycled who all have pretty much the same beliefs at the end of day (outside of select few Larry Brown and Phil Jackson).

How long did it take cappers to figure out about the Mile High Stadium had thin air (altitude) , or that no one has ever kicked a FG longer then 50 yards at the new Steelers Stadium (open end of Stdium has wild gusts off the Mon. River )

But even before these facts were known, I guarantee you somewhere there was a trend....

   

BTW...

Consistent trends that contradict ....would be that the Knicks 10-2 versus the line when a home dog, the Knicks are 5-1 thier last 6 overall, and are 7-3 against over .500 teams.  (This basicaly shows 3 different trends across three catagories that show us that there is something about being underdogs and playing good teams at home that gets them fired-up) Now this is good info because its bnot just one angle supporting the porgnostication, its 3 angles.

On the contrary....The visiting Rockets are 2-6 as a road favorite, 0-5 as a favorite overall thier last 5 and are 5-5 ats versus sub.500 teams. (Here we see the Rockets usually let down against lesser opposition and wehn on the road.)

Now the key is combining the Knicks and the Rockets trends above to handicap the current sitaution.

It is clear that historically the knicks will probably come out firing and houston will let-up. this gves us a strong basis for being a pro-Knicks handicap. Add this to other handicapping factors like betting against public %, injuries, 3 games in 4 nights, etc...you have got yourself a play on the knicks!

Jay Lumenn....hope you got my response!

I have (play's tonight on the)
Knicks +2.5 (Fading Rockets 2 in 3 nights, Rockets banged up, travel issues last night))
Bucks UNDER 204.5 (Fading total, MInn 3 games 4 nights, Min OT win last night, Bucks No Michael Redd)
Clippers UNDER 187 (Fading total 3 games 4 nights for La Clips (off run & gun golden state and Lakers, clips have no NBA starters on roster) Portland plays UNDER games vs. sub .500

write-up for today was on Knicks vs Rockets

thx place

I did, thank you for answering it in the manner you did.  This is one of those games were I think OU is the far better team but the line movement and the fact that everyone is on OU scares me.  I won't play anything and will simply watch.  I have yet to put my confidence fully in situations like this were OSU is the play. 

BOL tonight and I hope OSU covers!