Monday CBI Championship>

Siena +8 @ Fresno St  O/U 139

Game 1- best of 3 series

Siena HC Jimmy Patsos has done a great coaching job in his 1st season as he took over an 8-24 team with no seniors on the team and he has played 4 freshman in the rotation. This team's arrow is definitely pointing up for the future.

Fresno St has hit the 20 win mark for the 1st time since 2007 and have won 12 of their last 15 games including 6-1 at home their last 7.

The play: Under 139   1.5 units

Fresno is a team that is heavily reliant on the 3 ball. For the season they are #62 in 3PA/FGA and #89 in 3PT%. Siena meanwhile has been decent at limiting 3PA's: #116 and are #83 in 3PT%D. In the MAAC Siena played 7 of their conference games against 3 teams that either attempt a ton of 3's or have a really good % of made 3's in Iona, Canisius & Rider so these numbers are probably a little better than they look.

Probably the 2 biggest weaknesses for Siena are shooting the ball (#319 in EffFG%) and turning the ball over (#311 in TO%Off.). Siena's bad shooting will aid the under here big time if Fresno can limit their 2nd chance opportunities. The Saints' have been great at retrieiving missed shots (#10 in OffReb%) while  Fresno is not  a team with a lot of size up front so this will be a big key in keeping Siena's offense in check and for the under play. As far as Siena turning the ball over a lot, Fresno is not a high pressure D (#275 TO%D) so I would think their transition pts. will be limited.

Siena is a team defensively that plays a lot of sagging man to man but play a decent amount of 2-3 zone- which they played a lot of against a Penn St team that struggled all year shooting the 3. So it appears Patsos will adjust to his opponent as to what D they play. They did mix zone and man against Iona in both meetings so  they will probably change on the fly against Fresno as to what is working.

One of the big angles in this game for me is the fact that Siena will be traveling to the West coast for the 1st time since early in the 2012-13 season- A 77-60 loss @ San Diego. They also haven't been out of the Eastern time zone since a 81-73 loss @ Purdue on November 24th. If you believe in the theory that defense travels (and I do) I see Siena playing pretty well on D but struggling to get in the 60's on offense. One other angle that should limit the Saints' offense is they will be playing in Fresno's 15,500 seat arena- something they are not accustomed to in the MAAC. I feel this total is about 5-6 pts too high.

Gonna figure on something along the lines of Fresno 70, Siena 62   GL