Went 2-1 yesterday but it was a pretty BS 2-1 as the LaSalle/STL Under should have hit with ease until a last minute collapse by LaSalle forced OT... I guess s*** happens. In good news we went 1-0 on TT's going to 23-11 (67.6%) on the year and hitting an ATS spread play creeping me back towards even on those. Back at it for another positive week. Lets get that
25-25-1 ATS (-3.4)
9-9 ML Parlays (+6.0)
1-2 MLs (-1.25)
6-5 Teasers (+2.5)
8-5 O/U's (+2.2)
23-11 TT's (+16.5)
72-57-1 All Picks (+21.55 Units)
18-11 on POD's (+11.3 Units) *** counted in totals above
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Went 2-1 yesterday but it was a pretty BS 2-1 as the LaSalle/STL Under should have hit with ease until a last minute collapse by LaSalle forced OT... I guess s*** happens. In good news we went 1-0 on TT's going to 23-11 (67.6%) on the year and hitting an ATS spread play creeping me back towards even on those. Back at it for another positive week. Lets get that
25-25-1 ATS (-3.4)
9-9 ML Parlays (+6.0)
1-2 MLs (-1.25)
6-5 Teasers (+2.5)
8-5 O/U's (+2.2)
23-11 TT's (+16.5)
72-57-1 All Picks (+21.55 Units)
18-11 on POD's (+11.3 Units) *** counted in totals above
Waiting for my book to post the TT lines but based on the spread and O/U it looks like a play on the Kansas TT Under may be my play. Tough to tail a team at home and fade them on the road like I've been doing with Kansas but it keeps paying off... hope to see the TT line around 67-68
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Waiting for my book to post the TT lines but based on the spread and O/U it looks like a play on the Kansas TT Under may be my play. Tough to tail a team at home and fade them on the road like I've been doing with Kansas but it keeps paying off... hope to see the TT line around 67-68
Kansas is scoring 72.1 PPG this season, 78.6 PPG in Big 12 home games, and 67.4 PPG in Big 12 road games.
Kansas State defensively is giving up 63.6 PPG on the year, 67.4 PPG in Big 12 road games, and 57.1 PPG in Big 12 home games.
These teams met earlier this year and it resulted in a 68-57 home victory by Kansas.
Now Kansas scored 68 at home in this matchup and now they take to the road where they score 11.2 LESS PPG than at home in conference games this year. Unfortunately for them, Kansas State gives up 10.3 LESS PPG on their home floor in Big 12 play than they do on the road.
Kansas has played 5 Big 12 teams twice this season. Not once have they scored more points in their road matchup vs. a team. They actually average 12.2 LESS PPG in their road matchup vs. Big 12 teams compared to when they face them at Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas State on the other hand has faced 6 Big 12 teams twice. All 6 have scored less points on Kansas's states home floor than their own. In fact, they averaged 10.5 LESS PPG when playing at Kansas St. In 7 conference home games Kansas State has allowed 0 of these 7 teams to score over 65 points. When these teams met earlier this year Kansas State held Kansas to 68 which is their second lowest total in a Big 12 home game this year. Their lowest total was when they scored 67 vs. Oklahoma State. When they rematched the Cowboys later that year Kansas only managed 62 points on Oklahoma State's floor.
These numbers show me very strongly that this game will be low scoring. If it was anyone other than Kansas I would bet my bankroll on this but when you have that much talent who knows when these guys could drop 80 at any moment. That being said I personally don't see that happening at all here as Kansas State has been locking teams down at home and Kansas hasn't impressed me at all away from home this season. Not to mention the research is so lopsided it's impossible for me not to side with it. Numbers show Kansas winning a low scoring game tonight and it's hard to argue with the numbers above.
1.1 Units ----> 1 Unit
Kansas TT Under 67
1.1 Units ----> 1 Unit
Kansas State / Kansas Under 129
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POD 1
Kansas is scoring 72.1 PPG this season, 78.6 PPG in Big 12 home games, and 67.4 PPG in Big 12 road games.
Kansas State defensively is giving up 63.6 PPG on the year, 67.4 PPG in Big 12 road games, and 57.1 PPG in Big 12 home games.
These teams met earlier this year and it resulted in a 68-57 home victory by Kansas.
Now Kansas scored 68 at home in this matchup and now they take to the road where they score 11.2 LESS PPG than at home in conference games this year. Unfortunately for them, Kansas State gives up 10.3 LESS PPG on their home floor in Big 12 play than they do on the road.
Kansas has played 5 Big 12 teams twice this season. Not once have they scored more points in their road matchup vs. a team. They actually average 12.2 LESS PPG in their road matchup vs. Big 12 teams compared to when they face them at Allen Fieldhouse. Kansas State on the other hand has faced 6 Big 12 teams twice. All 6 have scored less points on Kansas's states home floor than their own. In fact, they averaged 10.5 LESS PPG when playing at Kansas St. In 7 conference home games Kansas State has allowed 0 of these 7 teams to score over 65 points. When these teams met earlier this year Kansas State held Kansas to 68 which is their second lowest total in a Big 12 home game this year. Their lowest total was when they scored 67 vs. Oklahoma State. When they rematched the Cowboys later that year Kansas only managed 62 points on Oklahoma State's floor.
These numbers show me very strongly that this game will be low scoring. If it was anyone other than Kansas I would bet my bankroll on this but when you have that much talent who knows when these guys could drop 80 at any moment. That being said I personally don't see that happening at all here as Kansas State has been locking teams down at home and Kansas hasn't impressed me at all away from home this season. Not to mention the research is so lopsided it's impossible for me not to side with it. Numbers show Kansas winning a low scoring game tonight and it's hard to argue with the numbers above.
9-3 vs. good defensive teams (allow 64 or less/game)
Louisville played without Chris Jones due to suspension vs. Syracuse and they didn't look good to me. Then he was active for the Miami game and although he didn't get the start they needed him off the bench as they got down early and he came in to give them 17 points, 5 boards and 2 assists. He's a big part of Lousiville's offensive success. He leads the team in assists (3.6) and steals (2.0) and is third on the team in scoring (13.7). He was dismissed from the team yesterday. While Georgia Tech isn't very good, it surprised me to see the public hammer Louisville (62% according to oddsshark.com) even after news came out that Chris Jones is no longer with the program. After getting embarrassed by UNC I think Tech comes out trying to prove that they can hang with some of the better teams in the conference. I like this game to stay within a few buckets. Been waiting for this line to continue to move and it just hit 7 at my book. Hopping on it now.
1.1 Units ----> 1 Unit
Georgia Tech +7
0
Louisville ATS
9-15-2 Overall
4-4 Away
7-14-2 as favorite
2-4 as road favorite 6-8 in conference games
2-1 vs teams with losing record
Georgia Tech ATS
12-11-2 Overall
6-4-1 Home
8-4-1 as underdog
2-0-1 as home underdog
8-6 in conference games
10-6 vs. teams with winning record
9-3 vs. good defensive teams (allow 64 or less/game)
Louisville played without Chris Jones due to suspension vs. Syracuse and they didn't look good to me. Then he was active for the Miami game and although he didn't get the start they needed him off the bench as they got down early and he came in to give them 17 points, 5 boards and 2 assists. He's a big part of Lousiville's offensive success. He leads the team in assists (3.6) and steals (2.0) and is third on the team in scoring (13.7). He was dismissed from the team yesterday. While Georgia Tech isn't very good, it surprised me to see the public hammer Louisville (62% according to oddsshark.com) even after news came out that Chris Jones is no longer with the program. After getting embarrassed by UNC I think Tech comes out trying to prove that they can hang with some of the better teams in the conference. I like this game to stay within a few buckets. Been waiting for this line to continue to move and it just hit 7 at my book. Hopping on it now.
Love K State locking down on the defensive there at the end. It's obviously easy to say I should have trusted the strong numbers and played more on that KU under but love the win. Positive night.
2-1 Tonight (+0.9 Units)
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Love K State locking down on the defensive there at the end. It's obviously easy to say I should have trusted the strong numbers and played more on that KU under but love the win. Positive night.
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