52-39 (+8.75 UNITS)
3-6 on Saturday...
Western Carolina -130 (1 UNIT) - WCU is 4-0 in SoCon play (best start since 94-95) and draw Elon tonight to close their current homestand. I was on both of these teams on Saturday with both failing to cover. WCU did manage to tough out a win over UNCG despite 1-13 shooting from 3PT range. They did convert 31-38 FT's and outscored UNCG in the paint. They were down with 5 minutes to play before finishing strong to close out the game. That type of win is a confidence booster for this team that has no SR's on the roster. Elon is coming off a loss to App St on Saturday. They led by as many as 12 in the first half before App St stormed back to tie and eventually pulled away for a 10 point win. This Elon team is very perimeter oriented and managed to make only 4 3PT's on Saturday. They get very little in the paint and struggle to get to the FT line. Earlier this year I talked about this team's desire to be better on defense this year but the last few games have been a struggle defensively. Can Elon expect another 1-13 night from WCU tonight? Elon is 299th in 3PT% defense so I don't expect that. Elon may find it tough to get good looks from 3PT range against a WCU defense that ranks 38th in 3PT% defense. The quotes from Elon's coach after Saturday's defeat have me a little worried as well..“I thought our guys battled and competed tonight, but we didn’t make enough plays or do the little things we needed to do in the second half in order to win the game," said Elon head coach Matt Matheny. "I like the way we started, but the run they had to end the first half gave [Appalachian State] a lot of momentum moving forward." That sounds like a coach trying to keep his team from getting down on itself but how can you be happy with a defensive effort that gave up 80 points? Looks like Elon is struggling to maintain its defensive intensity and that spells trouble against a WCU with a lot of confidence playing at home.
Few other notes:
I lean GA Southern tonight against Davidson. The line has moved to 13. GA Southern defends the three very well and play at a snail's pace. I may end up adding to card.
I am hoping for an impressive effort tonight from the College of Charleston. They are on the road against a bad Citadel team but I can't lay 14.5 on the road. If they hammer The Citadel tonight and GA Southern gets beat soundly by Davidson tonight we should get a nice line with GA Southern at home against Charleston on Thursday night. Charleston will be looking ahead to their meeting with Davidson on Saturday.
Wofford is laying 7 at Furman tonight. Wofford is very good defensively but can they cover 7 on the road with an inconsistent offense? They played well at home against GA Southern on Saturday. Furman is coming a pretty solid effort at home against SoCon favorite Davidson and I wonder how much they have left in the tank tonight? Furman's only DI win was over Presbyterian. This game has been a decent rivalry over the last couple of years but Wofford managed to sweep Furman last year.
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