I think this line will go up so I want to grab it now. No matter how much I like a game I always buy off the hook unless it's a very high line. I'll be back later with my write-up. There's some info I need to find out before I do it. Just wanted to let everyone know early that at this number it's another big fade SEMO bet for me. The line is -7.5 -110 at the Greek now.

10 MOREHEAD -7 -120

already jumped on it POOL SEMO SUCK

GL

Pool,

 

 

[F] Maze Stallworth has been suspended indefinitely - Suspension - 01/10/09

 

Morehead St. comes to town tonight sitting atop the OVC standings with a 5-1 conference record. They already own wins over UT-Martin, Murray St., Austin Peay, Tenn Tech, and Jax St. Their lone conference loss has come on the road at Tenn. St. Their only other conference road game was a 10 point win at Austin Peay which is a very hard place to pick up a win. Morehead comes in without the services of Maze Stallworth, their 3rd leading scorer. He has been suspended indefinitely. He's also missed the last 2 games, both Morehead home conference wins.

I classify teams in this conference as generally falling into categories. Athletic or fundamentally sound. Austin Peay and Murray St. fall into both, that's why I think they are the teams to beat in the conference. This year SEMO falls into neither. Morehead is a fundamentally sound team that just doesn't beat itself. These teams give SEMO more trouble it seems than the athletic teams. All they have to do is be patient and move the ball around and they will get plenty of open looks. The more teams move the ball around on SEMO the more SEMO gets way out of position.

This is what I know about Calvin Williams (17ppg and 7.7rpg) availability for tonights game. He sat out Mondays game with a sprained ankle suffered on the opening tip of last Saturdays game. After the game Monday night he told some fans that he didn't expect to play Thursday but thought he would be able to play this coming Saturday. Calvin DID NOT practice Wednesday. Zac Roman, SEMO's coach, said BEFORE practice that he DID NOT expect Calvin to play Thursday. Then after practice Calvin went to his head coach and told him he thought he could give him a few minutes Thursday night. At that time his ankle was still very tender. I expect this to be a game time decision. Best case for SEMO I don't believe Calvin will start but will try and give the team as many minutes as he can. I don't expect that to be a lot. I'll be at the game so I won't be able to relay any last minute info. Even if Calvin was healthy I would still like Morehead to cover this number. Morehead has a very good center of their own in 6'8" Kenneth Faried, 12.3ppg and 11.9rpg. If I hear anything more before going to the game I'll let everyone know.

One thing most people don't know. Israel Kirk, a 6'7" backup f/c is down to avg.12.1 minutes in conference games. Whenever he isn't practicing or playing in a game he wears a medical boot around one of his ankles. The coaches have said if they had a full roster instead of only the 8 scholarship players they have now he would have already been shut down for the year.

I also like Morehead to cover the first half number of -4. SEMO was up 2 at home against Tenn. St. (a shakey road team) before getting beat by double digits the second half. The closest they've come at the half in their other conference games is 8 against E. Illinois.

5 MOREHEAD -4 (1H)

 

 

SE MISSOURI WAS OK WITHOUT THEIR STARTER, SO IN THIS GAME THEY HAVE THEIR GREATEST ASSET.  THOUGH WE STILL COVERED LAST TIME.

pool,

 

briefly, what are your thoughts on tenn tech and murray st.? thanks

thanks pool, much appreciated

UPDATE

SEMO's head coach is pretty sure that Calvin Williams will play tonight. But for how many minutes is the question. Several people here are wondering how Calvin could sprain his ankle on the opening tip in Saturdays game, then play the whole game but not be able to play Monday. I know whenever I sprained my ankle, and it's happened a lot, and could still run around on it the rest of the day. It didn't all of a sudden tighten up where I couldn't move around on it two days later. Even if Calvin is completly healthy and would play the whole game I can't see SEMO keeping this one in single digits.

If you want to watch the SEMO game tonight on the internet:

You can watch all SEMO home games at www.kfvs.com That's the site of the local tv station. Click on sports at the top of the page and then webcast. If you can't figure it out from there you don't need to be betting on sports. LOL

This was hands down the best game SEMO played this year. It went hand in hand with a very poorly played game by Morehead. Calvin Williams did not dress out for the game. The coach in his post game address wasn't very happy about it either. With Calvin out of the game the only big scoring threat that SEMO has is Kenard Moore. Morehead let him go off for 31. For a team that leads the conference in fielf goal % defense they didn't have one player that could stop his dribble penatration. His defender got no help defense from his team mates. But the single biggest reason Morehead didn't cover is the following. SEMO's biggest weakness on defense is covering the three point shooters. With Stallworth not playing tonight, his suspension was lifted today, Morehead had ZERO three point threats. They only attempted 7 the whole game and I don't believe they tried any the second half. That ment SEMO could pack in the defense and didn't have to cover nearly as much of the floor. Morehead had plenty of open three point looks but they just wouldn't shoot the ball. We still had a chance to push or cover depending on the line you got at the end. Morehead leads the conference in freethrow shooting. They have one poor FT shooter on the team, Kenneth Faried. With 9 sec. to go and up 6, YES of all people he was the one at the line. He missed both FT and Morehead's best FT shooter got the rebound but SEMO wouldn't foul him and the clock ran out. This was just one of those games that everything seemed to work against us. I hope most of you at least cashed the first half bet.