Posted:
#1
First off, I wanted to apologize for repeatedly venting on my thread about my picks. Part of that is my trusting other people and sources more than myself and getting mad at them and myself when it doesn't work. Part of that is my anxious personality. Hopefully I can dig up enough information to help some people out there cash.
Michigan +2
These two teams play each other close because they are evenly-matched. That means wait for the highest line you can get and grab it, because, in expectation of a tight game, that's where the value is. I still think that Michigan has a slight match-up edge that allows them to have a chance to win. The key is the perimeter. Michigan relies on the three-ball more than any other team in the conference. They're second in three-point % while Wisconsin is 4th in opposing three-point % and 13th in opposing three-point %. For instance, Michigan lost at Wisconsin only by 4, shooting 10/21 from three. I think this game means a lot because that was on January 17 when many teams (Illinois, Michigan State...) were still struggling super hard on the road. In a slew of pretty bad road losses-- at Iowa, by 16 in Illinois on January 11, by 8 at Sparty, by 4 at OSU, they could keep it close at Wisconsin, having at one point a 38-30 lead with 12 minutes left in the second half, mostly because teams succeed in draining threes against Wisconsin. While these are two of the slowest offensive teams, Michigan can use its long possession time effectively by draining threes. They are also decently physical in the interior. They contained Nigel Hayes both times they played, Hayes had just a 94 offensive rating at home vs Mich, scoring 13 points, and and a 77 offensive rating on the road with just 6 points. I don't think this is going to be a game where he can make a significant contribution like he did against Northwestern. Michigan's defense, overall, isn't that bad. They're ranked 152nd in efficiency on the season, but in the top 100 in the last three. And Wisconsin's offense, obviously, isn't that potent. Wisconsin's offense has lately been relying more than usual on the three-ball, including attempting 29 threes against Northwestern. They will surely have to change that against Michigan, against whom Minnesota put up only 13 threes, Illinois 15 and Purdue 19 including in overtime. I think Michigan has the tools on offense, and can do enough on defense, to keep this game within a bucket, if not achieve the outright win.
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