Florida Gators ML
There really are very few weaknesses on either team, I hate to go against either one. I said originally I would likely take the winner of Duke vs Houston and usually when I go against my first instinct I lose, but I have gone over the game a little more and like the oddsmakers, I have to give marginal preference to Florida.
The main reasons are:
I feel like Houston was helped greatly in the last 2 games by their opponents shooting going cold. Vols couldn't hit a shot especially in the first half, while Duke had a very long drought where they only got points from the line in the 2nd in the semifinal game.
Of course Houston's #1 defense had something to do with that but watching the game it was just more that guys missed shots they usually make. In the first half when Duke had a healthy lead because they were well able to get open looks. 2nd half they just didn't hit them. Proctor did nothing and couldn't hit FTs either, Flagg missed that big shot.
But during that cold stretch for Houston the Cougars made really hard work of getting over the hump to even tie the game. They missed a lot of layups and while they may have big strong guys up front that can challenge your shots and grab boards, they seem to lack that graceful finishing touch when they get to the rim. It was Cryers 3s that kept them in it while they missed bunny shots after stops at the other end.
And you know who does have that excellent touch down low - Walter Clayton Jr. He is a big reason I think Florida wins tonight, the guy has proven he has that clutch gene and that has spread to the whole team as they have escaped games they fell behind in vs Auburn, Texas Tech and Uconn during the tournament.
When the chips were down late in the 2nd half Saturday night, Duke choked. Florida has thrived in those spots, hitting big shots and grabbing rebounds. Clayton has become just the 2nd player ever to have 30 points in the elite 8 and final 4 round. The last player to do it - a guy called Larry Bird.
That 2nd half collapse was uncharacteristic of Duke as they are top2 in 2nd half scoring margin. Top 2 with guess which team - Florida.
Another thing which doomed the Blue Devils was 2nd chance points, Cougars had 19 and Duke had 12. But Florida has the 4th most offensive rebounds this season so should be able to counter that.
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