NCAA - UNDERSTAND POINT-BUYING IN BASKETBALL BEFORE YOU START BUYING THEM DURING THE NCAA TOURNAMENT

HAD TO CHANGE MY TOPIC HEADING FOR THE FINISH OF THE COLLEGE BASKETBALL SEASON.

THESE STATS ARE FOR BUYING POINTS OF 0.5 TO 3 POINTS.

THESE ARE THE STATS FOR THE LAST 8 WEEKS

I WILL ADD THE FINAL CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT GAMES WHEN THE FINISH SOON.

I WILL FINISH WITH RUNNING THE NUMBERS OF ALL THE NCAA TOURNAMENT GAMES.

\/------Last 2 Weeks of NCAA Basketball Stats to be Added to Previous 6 Weeks------\/

2 Weeks: Saturday, March 2, 2013 through Friday, March 15, 2013

12 original pushes
132 games finished between -0.5 to -3 points off original spread
524 games
1,048 sides

All stats taken from vegasinsider . com as it was easier to sift through data because they had only Division 1 college basketball games listed.

12 Pushes
Montana @ Montana St, B Green @ Kent St, Drake @ Creigh, UC River @UCS Barb, LA Laf @ Mid TN St. UNC Greens @ Elon, Siena @ Niagara, EMBC @ Verm, Oregon St @ Color, St. Jo @ X, Wash @ Oregon, Cal Poly @ Pac.

27 by -0.5
UAB, Rice, Tex, Rice, George, Long B, Pitt, Sav St, Marq, Young, E. Car, N Color, CS Sac, Mont St., USC Upstate, Prov, UAB, Miami FL, Rice, S. Utah, N. AZ, WKU, Nev, Valp, Rutgers, C Ark, OK St., AZ St.

23 by -1
MO, N Mex, WKU, Ind, Ohio, Memphis, Char, USD, Charles S, kansas st, geo was, neb, s. ala, can, fair, s. dak st, wich st, iona, tulane, geo wash, tx am, memphis, alabama am.

16 by -1.5
pepper, usc, dayton, c mich, miss, seton, mich, s car, fair, s car, tx am, w car charles s, wash, fuller, bos coll.

27 by -2
c fl, denver, fuller, santa clara, depaul, va comm, wake, auburn, usc, la monroe, sd st, marsh, will mar, bingham, dela, syracuse, boise st, uab, tx christ, boise, dayton, tulane, pacific, kent, nm st, steph aus, tulane

16 by -2.5
nd, cincy, siena, akron, uw milw, tx st, belmont, harv, boston, butler, s miss, id st, mich, miss st, buck, del st

23 by -3
geo mas, geo wash, port, nc wilm, troy, wash, wva, uc irvine, evans, wich, idaho, delaware, gonz, il, niagara, my shor, nich st, savan, clemson, penn st, mich st, akron, w mich.

Buy 0.5 point
27 (2.58%) loses to pushes
12 (1.15%) pushes to wins
39 (3.72%) total bets affected by buying 0.5 point

Buy 1 point
23 (2.19%) pushes
39 (3.72%) wins
62 (5.92%) total bets affected by buying 1 point

Buy 1.5 points
16 (2.19%) pushes
62 (5.92%) wins
78(7.44%) total bets affected by buying 1.5 points

Buy 2 points
27 (1.53%) pushes
78 (7.44%) wins
105 (10.02%) total bets affected by buying 2 points

Buy 2.5 points
16 (1.53%) pushes
105 (10.02%)wins
121 (11.55%) total bets affected by buying 2.5 points

Buy 3 points
23 (2.19%) pushes
121 (11.55%) wins
144 (13.74%) total bets affected by buying 3 points

On 3 points, on average 13.74% of bets that normally would have been a loss or push would be either a push or a win, but on the other 86.26% of the bets, you are paying 77% MORE MONEY than "normal juiced" bets on the original spread of -110.

Paying 77% more for only 13.74% insurance!

If you think a game is going to be THAT CLOSE to the original spread that you want to buy points, why are you even thinking of betting on the game?!?!?  THERE ARE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARD!!!!!

People have brought up that "they only pick the games that matter" as if they are psychic or something, but in the reality of the situation, IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW YOU BUY THEM,...BUYING ANY AMOUNT OF POINTS IN ANY SITUATION IN ANY FORM OF BASKETBALL HAS A NEGATIVE EFFECT TO YOUR BANK ROLL.

A few people stated that they "only buy the hook" or half point, whereas the 0.5 point data shows that there is NO advantage to only buying 0.5 points as compared to any other amount.  The bottom line is that the amount of added juice you pay on your bets IS NOT GREATER than the amount of money "saved" by extra wins or pushes.

A few people have believed that "only buying points on games that have low ORIGINAL SPREADS" as compared to buying points on games with higher original spreads is profitable...BUT after doing statistical data on games of PUSH to 3 points of original spread and then buying 0.5 to 3 points on them, showed NO difference in probabilities or anything near being profitable.

A few people have thought that "buying games to 7 points" was profitable to them where 7 points is a "3-score game" and teams "give-up" at that number, the stats and research STILL said that buying points was ANYTHING NEAR being PROFITABLE. 

Though the stats DID show that MORE BETS were affected by buying points to 7 than buying to 6 or 8 points (approximately twice as much chances), it DID NOT SHOW A HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY to SAVE MORE MONEY through more pushes and wins THAN THE ADDED JUICE PAID ON ALL BETS.

ALL COMMENTS, THOUGHTS, OR OPINIONS WELCOMED.

DISCUSSIONS AVAILABLE,......ARGUMENTS, CHILD'S PLAY, AND BELITTLING UNWANTED AND NOT NECESSARY.

THANK YOU

\/------Overall Full 8 Weeks of NCAA Basketball Stats------\/

8 Weeks: Saturday, January 19th, 2013 through Friday, March 15, 2013

1,964 games
3,928 sides
39 original pushes
467 games finished between -0.5 to -3 points off original spread

All stats taken from vegasinsider . com as it was easier to sift through data because they had only Division 1 college basketball games listed.

Buy 0.5 point (-120)
95 (2.42%) loses to pushes
39 (0.99%) pushes to wins
134 (3.41%) total bets affected by buying 0.5 point

Buy 1 point (-130)
89 (2.27%) pushes
134 (3.41%) wins
223 (5.68%) total bets affected by buying 1 point

Buy 1.5 points (-140)
58 (1.48%) pushes
223 (5.68%) wins
281 (7.15%) total bets affected by buying 1.5 points

Buy 2 points (-155)
84 (2.14%) pushes
281 (7.15%) wins
365 (9.29%) total bets affected by buying 2 points

Buy 2.5 points (-175)
70 (1.78%) pushes
365 (9.29%)wins
435 (11.07%) total bets affected by buying 2.5 points

Buy 3 points (-195)
71 (1.81%) pushes
435 (11.07%) wins
506 (12.88%) total bets affected by buying 3 points

Stat Corrections from post #2 on Last 2 Weeks of data (corrected in red):

Buy 1.5 points
16 (1.53%) pushes

Buy 2 points
27 (2.58%) pushes

SOMETHING TO NOTE FROM THE 8 WEEKS OF DATA:

A lot of people think that Oddsmakers are good at what they do...that is true to a point.  Oddsmakers are there to put out a line that brings in around even amounts of bets on each side of the game.  The MYTH is that they are trying to predict the team that will win and by how much by putting out Spreads.  They also put out Totals for the game which is about the predicted amount of points that both teams will score in a game.

If you look at the 8 weeks of data, out of 1,964 games, only 39 ended as original pushes on the spreads that were given.

That means that only about 2 out of 100 games push.

That really put it into perspective for me.

This right here.

LET'S SEE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A GAMBLER THAT DOESN'T BUY THE POINTS AND A GAMBLER THAT DOES BUY THE POINTS:

A 50/50 bettor that risked $110 on -110 odds to win $100 buying the original spreads on the games, picking 1 team of the last 1,964 games in the last 8 weeks, would have won 963, lost 962, and pushed on 39.

1,964 - 39 pushes = 1,925
1,925 divided by 2 = 962.5
wins rounded up to 963
loses rounded down to 962

963 wins x $100 = $96,300
962 loses x $110 = $105,820

($96,300 in winnings) - ($105,820 in losses) = total loss of $9,520

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A 50/50 bettor that risked $120 on -120 to win $100 buying 1/2 point on 1 team of the last 1,964 games in the last 8 weeks:

(963 wins + 39 pushes that turn into wins buying 1/2 point) x $100 = $100,200 in winnings

962 loses - (approximately 47 games that would have lost by 1/2 point that turned into a push [1,925 x probability of 2.42% = 46.585]) = 915
915 x $120 = $109,800 in losses

($100,200 in winnings) - ($109,800 in losses) = total loss of $9,600

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CONCLUSION: Overall the $9,600 loss by buying the points had NO ADVANTAGE TO MAKING MORE MONEY. Rather it actually lost a small $80 by buying the points and that was with me rounding the WINS UP and the LOSSES DOWN and rounding the amount of games that lost by 1/2 point UP.  All rounding was to be beneficial to buying points and it still came out losing money. 

The amount of $80 is rather insignificant as winning or pushing on just ONE extra game anywhere would change the small loss into a positive profit, though the result would still be insignificant to the amount of money used in the example.

It pretty much boils down to what BarcsHasBite was reiterating:

If you think a game is going to be THAT CLOSE to the original spread that you want to buy points, why are you even thinking of betting on the game?!?!?  THERE ARE BETTER BETS ON THE BOARD!!!!!