Posted:
#1
64-72 YTD
1-0 yesterday
1. NEBRASKA+12.5(-110)*Big
Got this line early this morning.
Two conflicting angles for IU tonight...
1) they want to bounce back after the sparty loss
2) look ahead spot to Purdue Saturday(huge bigten rivalry)
Hard to apply points to a cap w/ these angles, I'll count them as a wash in this spot.
Nebraska could be seeking revenge for the 10pt loss to IU at home on jan 2nd. IU is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ats against division foes when playing them the second time around. I think coach Tim Miles gets a good gameplan together vs Tom Creen who is below average at in-game adjustments. Most would say he's quite bad at coaching in that regard.
NEB is 7-3 ats last 10
IU is 5-5 ats last 10
NEB is 7-5 ats as a dog
IU is 11-11 ats as a fav
IU is 4-5 ats in 12.5+ spreads as favs. But who were those 4 ats wins against?
Eastern Illinois
Alcorn st
IUPU Fort Wayne
McNeese st
Rather cupcake non conference teams.
Nebraska's +- pt diff has gone up in their last 10 games, 6.7 from their seas avg of 5.5
IU's +- pt diff has gone down in their last 10 games, 9.7 from their 13.96 seas avg.
SOS's are close...NEB #97, IU #83
Nebraska has a slightly better turnover and opp turnover rate. And a slightly better opp effective possession ratio. These two areas will come to play if coach Miles gets a good plan together and Creen doesn't adjust well(history shows he doesn't). Wouldn't surprise me to see some empty possessions and sloppy ball by IU tonight.
My system has IU winning by 8.68 pts. That's w/ out any angles or motivational pts added or deducted. I'll take 4 pts of value w/ a line of 12.5 in a bigten game any day of the week.
GL ALL
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