NCAA Title Game Picks

YTD Posted: 174-133-14
Saturday: 3-1

Well, can't believe it's over. It seems like yesterday we were discussing Rhode Island @ Pitt on opening night of the season way back in Early November. It's been a really fun (and profitable) year for me in my second season of capping and I've learned a tremendous amount throughout the season. I hope my writeups helped a few people out along the way- they certainly were an invaluable tool for me in laying everything out in written form and seeing if it all made sense.

Butler was far and away my top money-maker this season. I backed them for the first time in the Diamond Head Classic against Florida State and Washington State, faded them against below-average competition like Evansville and Youngstown, and rode them in big national TV games like road tilts @ Detroit in January and @ Milwaukee in the Horizon championship game. And, of course, I've bet them in all 5 tourney games this season with fantastic results.

As of now, I don't have a play on this game. However, Live Betting has been an invaluable tool for me during this tournament and I am going to try and pick my spot at some point(s) during the game. If, for example, Butler gets down 11-4 or 13-5 several minutes in, that's a great time to pick up some extra value and get Butler at +6 or +6.5. As with almost all Butler games in March/April, I think this comes down to the final possession or two and anything above 4 points would prompt me to bet the Bulldogs.

Lean to the under and a possible prop play or two. Good luck to everyone tonight and enjoy this one. It'll be a long 7 months ahead

 gl Jfen

Shelvin Mack +5 Pts Scored vs. Kemba Walker Points Scored (-120) 1 unit

-Yet again, it's the Nored factor. He's an offensive liability to be certain but is still not getting proper respect for his extraordinarily abilities on the defensive end. As with any prop contingent on Nored's defense, foul trouble will be a key component. He's a highly-aggressive player who picks up a fair chunk of fouls, especially if the game is tightly officiated. With that said, I'm not sure Kemba has seen a better on-ball defender this season and Butler is one of the best teams in the country at defending the pick-and-roll. When they switch defenders, Kemba will likely end up being guarded by Vanzant, another excellent defender, or Mack.

-Shelvin is hot right now. The guy has hit some enormous shots in this tournament and has stepped up his level of play as the season has progressed. It's hard to believe he's the same player that disappeared at times early in the Horizon League season when Butler stumbled badly out of the gates. Who will guard him tonight? I'm not entirely sure. It could be primarily Kemba, who will have to exert a ton of energy on the defensive end to contain Mack. It could also be Jeremy Lamb, and if that's the case, I love Mack's chances of scoring 25 with his size, strength, and experience advantage. Napier could also see some time in this role.

Bottom line is that getting 5 points with Mack is tremendous value right now. Obviously Kemba hype is a major reason for this, but Mack has been just as consistent and productive in this tournament and has exhibited a pattern of excellence in big games. I think we'll see both guys in the 17-22 range when all is said and done.

 good luck and thanks

Butler vs. UCONN Under 132 (1 unit)
I've seen almost no one on this number, hardly surprising given that bricks and missed shots just aren't fun to cheer for. But the fact remains that Butler will maintain a methodical pace unless relentlessly pressured, which is what we saw in the first 5-6 minutes of the VCU game. UCONN is not a pressure team by any means and will be content to let Butler run its halfcourt sets. Additionally, both of these two teams are as good as any I've seen this year in transition defense. It doesn't hurt, either, that Butler is a "pack" rebounding team that almost never allows second chance points. I also see a realistic chance that the game is really tight towards the end and both teams play possession-to-possession basketball, much like we've seen now dozens of times in this tournament. Unless the 3's are really falling at a steady rate, I see this staying under.

I liked it at 129, but no matter where the money is coming from, the extra 3 points put me over the top. Casual bettors, maybe? In any event, it's a nice value and I'm happy to get it at 132.

I'm leaning to the under as well JFen. I think both teams finish in the low 60's.

 BOL tonight!!

Take it. I doubt it rises any further

Like the pace thus far. Butler currently at +4.5 is tempting but I want 5 or more

I didn't expect a lot of points but 41 is impressively low. Two amazing transition defenses is probably the primary reason as I indicated it might be in my writeup.

Big three at the buzzer by Mack as well- really helps my prop against Kemba

Butler ML +310 (.75 units to win 2.3)

Live-In Play. UCONN leads 31-26 with 13:31 remaining

Butler +5.5 (-120) 1 unit

33-28 UCONN. 11:50 remaining

Shelvin Mack +5 Pts Scored vs. Kemba Walker Points Scored (-120) 1 unit
Butler vs. UCONN Under 132 (1 unit)
(Live) Butler ML +310 (.75 units to win 2.3)
(Live) Butler +5.5 (-120) 1 unit 33-28 UCONN. 11:50 remaining

2-2, +.25 units

Blah. Mack prop hit and the under was obviously never, ever in doubt but I don't regret the Butler bets. They've made me so much money this year that I certainly can't be mad about it.

End result is a few bucks more to the bankroll for the cashout tomorrow. I'll continue dabbling in baseball but nothing like CBB.

Nice season Jfen.  Thanks for your analysis.  Hopefully you will be posting in the baseball forum. 

Looks like your Butler second half and mack Let you down, Hope you save all that money you make on Butler throughout the season, Oh wait, The Lakers made money for me last season, oh wait, the saints made money for me two seasons ago, That's your problem, Living in the past, Your last bet was a loser Butler, Show me what you got today, don't tell me what happen last year.

Dude, you are a retard. It is readily apparent that you cannot read.

The Mack prop hit. Butler lost. The night was a winner overall. Want to compare records for the year?

I'm glad you decided to act like a child because I pointed out that you were unneccesarily gloating about your win. Congrats! You won a game! Want a prize?

Great season JFen. I always enjoyed checking in on your plays.