• #1 Seed favs > 2 pts are 8-3 ATS
• #2 Seeds are 2-5 ATS
• #3 Seed dogs are 1-5 ATS
• #4 Seeds are 3-1 ATS
• #5 or worse seeds are 1-8 SU & 3-6 ATS
• Favorites are 5-0 ATS vs an opponent w/ revenge
• Teams with a win percentage of .850 > are 7-2 ATS
• Dogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round are 1-6 ATS
• Favorites of 5 < pts are 1-5 ATS
• Teams off BB SU dog wins are 1-4 ATS
• Big East teams are 8-1 ATS
• ACC teams are 9-3
• SEC teams are 4-1 ATS
• Big 10 teams are 0-6 ATS L18Y
• Pac 12 teams are 0-3 ATS L22Y
• Big 12 teams are 2-4 ATS
• There has not been a repeat champion since Florida in 2007. Since then, no defending champ had advanced past the Sweet 16.
• Only four of the 15 defending champs since then even reached the Sweet 16 ... and four others missed the tournament altogether
• Defending champs have lost in the first or second round in each of the past six tournaments, three of which were No. 1 seeds: Kansas (2023), Baylor (2022) and Villanova (2017)
• This is the third straight year the defending champion (UConn) is a No. 1 seed
• Twelve of the past 16 champions were 1-seeds. But it has been 11 years since the last time the overall No. 1 seed won the title (Louisville in 2013).
• Eight of the 19 previous overall No. 1s lost in the Sweet 16 or earlier, including each of the past two years (Alabama in 2023, Gonzaga in 2022)
• They have been more likely to lose during the first weekend (four) than to be champions (three)
• This year's overall No. 1 seed is defending champion UConn
• A No. 2 seed has reached the championship game just once in the past 10 tournaments. That was in 2016 when Villanova won the event as a No. 2 seed. The current six-tournament drought without a title game appearance is the longest ever
• There has never been a matchup of No. 2 seeds in the championship game
• There were zero No. 1 seeds in last year's Final Four, ending a streak of 10 straight tourneys with at least one.
• Either one or two No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four in 31 of 39 tournaments (79%).
• Only once have 4 No. 1 seeds made the Final Four (2008).
• At least one team seeded seventh or worse has reached the Final Four in 9 of the past 10 tourneys. By comparison, in the first 32 years of seeding (1979-2010), this happened only eight times total.
• It's been 34 years since a champion came from a conference that received fewer than four bids. UNLV in 1990 (three-bid Big West Conference) and Louisville in 1986 (three-bid Metro Conference) are the only schools to do so in the modern tournament era. This year UConn will be looking to end this streak.
The Huskies have a 73.5% chance to claim victory in this game based on the moneyline's implied probability. UConn has been favored on the moneyline 30 times this season. They've finished 29-1 in those games. Purdue has not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +225. The Huskies are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games played in April. Dunkel's Pick: Connecticut (-6).
UConn is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games.
Purdue is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games.
The total has gone under in 6 of the last 10 games for the Boilermakers.
Take the Under. Let’s start with the Boilermakers, defensively they are coming off a game where they held a red-hot Wolfpack offense to 50 points. Purdue obviously is going to face a much better opponent with UConn, but defensively they have played well throughout the tournament. UConn on the defensive end has been dominant, holding opponents to 57.2 ppg in five games thus far in the tournament.
On the offensive end of the floor, neither team allows many transition points, I expect this game to be played in the halfcourt for majority of the game. Unless both teams shoot close 50% in this contest, this game should stay under the total. by A.Rome
Purdue vs. UConn College Hoops Prediction: Under 145.5
I’ll go against the UConn juggernaut one more time.
These have been the two most dominant teams in the country all season, and we deserve an epic title game after a somewhat underwhelming NCAA Tournament as a whole.
Purdue is simply too good of a basketball team for me not to take a swing catching seven points.
The Boilermakers will be the first team the Huskies have seen all tournament that can match their size and challenge them on the boards.
Obviously, that’s largely due to the presence of National Player of the Year Zach Edey, who will be a totally different animal than anyone else Donovan Clingan has matched up against.
I’ll also bet on the Boilers’ role players, who I believe are ready for the stage and will knock down some big shots from the outside.
Whether it be Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Lance Jones or Mason Gillis, all are capable of catching fire from distance, which will help Purdue go blow-for-blow with Connecticut.
The Boilermakers can score on UConn similarly to how Alabama did, but they also have the team defense to make it much more difficult on the Huskies than the Crimson Tide did.
I think we get a classic on Monday, and while Purdue is rightfully the underdog, this is just too many points.
By D.J. James
The Purdue Boilermakers might finally meet their match on Monday.
It’s a pretty standard take that no one can beat the UConn Huskies at the moment, but the pace in this game could be an issue for Purdue. Sure, both of these teams play pretty slowly, each ranking 211th or lower in Adjusted Tempo, but UConn’s defense should reign supreme.
The Huskies have allowed fewer than 60 points in each game in this NCAA Tournament, aside from their game against Alabama, which is one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation. The Crimson Tide also launched a lot more 3s than Purdue will here.
UConn ranks in the top 50 in defensive 3-point attempt rate, and Purdue doesn’t shoot many 3s at all. Yes, the Boilermakers shoot over 40% from outside, and if NC State could hold Smith to 1-for-5 from deep, UConn can do the same.
The Huskies also have the great equalizer to Edey down low. Clingan may not be as dominant as Edey, but he’s more agile and has the height to match.
Finally, neither of these teams forces many turnovers, but Purdue’s Achilles’ heel offensively has been turnovers. Smith, Loyer and Co. could have issues with the pressure from Stephon Castle and Tristen Newton.
Take Purdue’s team total under. UConn should keep the pace slow and shut down the 3s while limiting Edey’s impact.
Play it to 69.
After an exciting tournament and plenty of intriguing storylines, the dust has settled. The two best statistical teams in the nation, per KenPom, have fought their way to the championship game.
While both teams possess elite offenses, the defenses are just as capable. That’s where I’m finding the value in this game. While Connecticut and Purdue have the two most efficient offenses in the nation, the way both teams run their stuff leads to a slower style of play.
Neither team is particularly upbeat in its tempo. In fact, UConn is one of the slowest teams in the nation and Purdue is in the bottom 50%.
This total has been set for a perfect offensive performance for each team, and I think that’s where the value is tucked away here.
In addition to the normal downside variance that appears in college basketball — particularly from beyond the arc — both of these defenses have huge inherent strengths that should keep the under firmly in play.
Playing into the variance theme, UConn has the second-ranked 2-point defense in the nation. This should help force Purdue into more 3-point attempts, effectively dragging down its potential effective field goal rate.
Purdue has been excellent on the glass all season, thanks in large part to Edey. The Boilermakers rank 13th in defensive rebounding, grabbing 76.1% of boards.
This will be an issue for a UConn team that has thrived on second chances this season, which should subsequently limit scoring for the Huskies.
My model projects the total for this game at 140 points. I think the current market is underpricing both defenses, providing an attractive entry point for under bettors. I would bet the under to 143.5.
Clingan might be the best defensive big in college basketball since Anthony Davis. He’s the rare opponent with the size, speed and smarts to really challenge Edey.
If you’re a Purdue fan or backer, there's hope. Edey led the nation in fouls drawn and Clingan — at times — has gotten into foul trouble, though he hasn’t had four fouls in a game since Valentine’s Day.
Dan Hurley plays his guys with two fouls at nearly half the national average (per KenPom), meaning he’d be cautious if Clingan gets whistled early. Keep that in mind if you’re live betting this one.
If there’s a bigger concern, it’s conditioning. Edey has played 38-plus minutes in three straight Purdue games. That is unfathomable for a 7-footer.
Clingan, meanwhile, has played 22 games since coming back from an injury in mid-January and topped 30 minutes just four times in that span. This game may well be decided by what happens in the 10-12 minutes that Edey plays and Clingan sits.
It’s no guarantee Purdue dominates those minutes, since Connecticut backup big Samson Johnson is no slouch defensively and will make Edey run in space on the other end of the floor.
Even if Edey wins the battle in the paint, UConn’s perimeter players are in a class beyond Purdue’s. The Boilermakers have shooters around Edey. The Huskies have stars on the outside around Clingan.
If those Purdue shooters start hot and stay hot, Purdue certainly has a chance. Yet over the course of 40 minutes, the talent gap on the perimeter will make itself apparent.
I’ll ride the UConn train one more time, expecting the Huskies to repeat at champs.
This game has the potential to be played at the slowest pace of any other March Madness matchup. While that would indicate the under is the direction, there's a case to be made for the over.
Both teams are best in Division I in offensive rebounding, signaling that quick put backs are in the script. Purdue has one of the highest offensive free-throw rates in the nation, with an added bonus of Edey shooting 71% from the charity stripe.
Neither team specializes in defending what will play out from post-ups to screens.
Despite possessions using the full shot clock, there are avenues for scoring through boards and fouls. KenPom projects the total at 147, in line with the opening market.
Look to take an over on any steam that pushes the total down before tip Monday night.
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