Posted:
#1
Been a long time since I've posted. Last 2-3 weeks I've been working nights and making picks here and there but not having nearly enough time to post so I've been laying off. Not tracking records anymore. I've seen how they get called into question day after day- good and bad cappers needing to defend them routinely, not worth it in my opinion. I figure you're going to remember picks I got way off and picks I nailed... and if you have more good than bad memories or vice versa, what's a record going to do?
With that being said... TUESDAYS LEANS!
USF -2.5 Just a nice spot here for the Bulls. They had been on a mad ATS run and they had a chance to backdoor MARQUETTE, but all good things must end. I think CINCINNATI blowing up UCONN coupled with that loss, there's really good value here. Gilchrist got his first big taste of ball in a long time and should be more of a factor here. Not to mention, USF has owned this series lately, and the Bearcats are so bad on the road I'd be amazed if they win again.
INDIANA +10.5 Gut pick. Too many points here for a well coached team. Creen knows Izzo and can do some positive things. I like Rivers on Lucas for a defensive matchup, and no one seems to mention that their game against PENN STATE was far from a pasting (though a 10 minute surge like that scares me). Nationally televised, the old cliche "one teams season", and as much as I think MSU is a fantastic program, they have a history of struggling before the BIG10 tourney. Look back, they've played .500 ball from February on 3 times in 4 years- last year being the exception. Look-ahead spot for MSU. Home teams dominate this series and MSU struggled here last year. For bettors who take halves, INDIANA first half may be wiser.
Other (smaller) leans:
VATEC -5.5 Like ACC home teams, both with good records, but WAKE only has 1 nice road conference win (@ UVA), and have lost significantly against upper tier ACC foes. TECH might just be up there.
GATEC -5.5 I see this as a bit of a sucker bet for UNC backers... UNC just blew out NCST (Goodnight Sid Lowe!!!) and GATEC is on a slide, dropping 3 of their last 4 (all three losses on the road- see above) and narrowly beating NCST. Just think like a square here... or don't think. "UNC can keep it close. It's two possessions! They did earlier this year AND they blew out NCST who GATEC barely beat" GATEC had that game in Chapel Hill won and got lazy, won't see a repeat performance. Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller are really going to be noticeably absent, and UNC guards aren't enough to scare GATEC.
And in the "who cares- its the worst teams in conference category"...
RUTGERS +4 It will be a cold day in hell when I decide to ride with DEPAUL as a favorite.
MICH -4. Scary. IOWA beat down NW with a similar line a week ago. And this could be a side effect of them getting prison raped at PURDUE. MICH had a big road win and has had some more time to prepare... but I think at some point the Wolverines are going to establish what they are. Middle of the pack BIG10 team... Beat the bad, lose to the good, NIT bound.
As always, rip the picks if you please. Will post later and let you know what I'm playing. GL!
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