This is one of those rare games where the lower seed is the favorite. Granted, only by 1 pt - but Nevada is still favored. And for good reason, they're the better team.
Dayton will have the best player on the court in Daron Holmes. However, they don't offer much else and finished just 3rd in a weak conference. They're not a deep team with just a 7 man rotation. Contain Holmes or at the very least slow him down (even better, get him in foul trouble) and Dayton will be beaten. They do shoot the 3 well and rank high in offensive efficiency at 19. But they play relatively poor D, coming in at 105 and they're a very poor rebounding.
Nevada finished 2nd in the vaunted Mountain West, a conference that put 6 teams in the tourney. They play good defense and spread the ball around with several guys that can beat you; Lucas, Blackshear, Davidson, and even Coleman when he's knocking down 3's. They're a little deeper with an 8 man rotation, including 2 guys (Foster and McInitosh) who play significant roles off the bench. They're a much more balanced team finishing top 60 in defensive efficiency and top 40 in offense. They also shoot the 3 well and rebound the ball better than Dayton.
The game will be played in Salt Lake City, which is significantly closer to Reno, NV than Dayton, Ohio. So if there is going to be a crowd advantage, it's Nevada's.
I always prefer the more balanced team. Give me the Wolfpack -1
Cheers! Wishing everyone a winning day 
on your plays @Kaufee 
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