Caution warranted by I like 4 today.
We live in Tuscaloosa and I'll be at this game today, rooting hard against this play. But I have to take undefeated Oklahoma +12 1/2 against Alabama. Oklahoma has played a mediocre schedule but have won all three times they tested themselves against good teams (Michigan, Arizona and Louisville).
But I think this is a tough matchup for us on several fronts. Their leading scorer is a quick 6'5" shooting guard and their PG is also quick and is also a very capable scorer. We struggle against teams with really good guards because Sears is not very quick and a defensive liability.
Second, we get 45% of our points from beyond the arc and Oklahoma is #4 in the country, holding opposing teams to 27.4% from 3 pt range. We're not shooting it as well from deep as we expected and when we've lost that's been one of the big problems. Oklahoma is #13 in steals and too many TOs has also been a problem for us. Sears averages almost 3 per game to go with his 4 assists per game. That's the other place we've struggled in the 3 losses.
Oklahoma shoots the ball well (36.7% from deep, 58.3% from 2 pt range and is #4 from the FT line at 81.4%). We're #224 in committing an average of 17.8 fouls per game so we'll send them to the line too often. We shoot 70.5% from the FT line and they commit almost 3 less fouls per game.
We do have a height advantage and we're a better rebounding team. We also have a tough matchup for them in 6'11" Grant Nelson who often brings the ball up the floor and can play any position on the team.
If Oklahoma holds us to 30% or so from deep I don't see how we cover this line. If we get to 36% or so, which we haven't done very often it could be a rout.
#73 12/1 St. Bonaventure -6 at #220 7/6 Fordham
Bonnies are excellent on defense, #9 in holding opposing teams to 61.2 ppg and #18 in holding team to 38.5% shooting from the field. They are also #47 in blocking 8% of opposing teams' shots. Fordham has played mostly cupcakes (#229 SOS vs Bonnies #128 SOS). But Fordham still is #260, allowing opponents 15 more pts per game than St. Bonaventure against a much easier schedule (76.5 ppg).
Fordham also doesn't protect the ball well at #235 in average TOs (18.5) while the Bonnies are #57 in causing TOs. St. Bonaventure is #88 in rebounding percent vs Fordham's #177.
High Point -1 at UNC Asheville
High Point is a really good, really well coached team who should win the conference. They are #50 in offensive efficiency against a weak UNC Asheville defensive team at #255 in defensive efficiency. They've played almost equal schedules and High Point is #77, holding opposing teams to 67.8 ppg while Asheville is #313, allowing 79.8 ppg.
HP is a better shooting team and they are about even rebounding the ball.
#114 10/3 Samford -12 1/2 at woeful #331 1/8 Western Carolina
Samford is on the way to winning their league. They are #9 in 3 pt shooting percentage with three guys who shoot right at 50% and a 4th at 44.8%. Samford has the #165 SOS while Western Carolina has managed only 1 win (#353 Bellarmine) against the #351 SOS.
Samford has wins over #115 ND State, #154 Utah Valley and #170 N. Alabama. Samford is #13 in the country averaging 86.3 ppg against a much tougher schedule while W. Carolina averages 61.6 ppg. Samford is the better shooting team (40.1% from deep, 55.6% from 2 pt range but only 69.7% from the FT line). This compares to Western Carolina's #354 from deep (26.4%), #300 from 2 pt range (46.9%) and an even worse 67.5% from the Ft line than Samford. This should be a rout if Samford shows up with even their B- game.
Hot Forum Topics
