I've slipped to 9/9 on the season with an 0/2 night the last time out.
1st games after Christmas break are always iffy, especially for road teams. Saturday lines are up most places and I took Ken Pom's #163 Elon at home -4 against #192 Marshall. The past results and the stats matchup all point to a very comfortable win for Elon. They've played the tougher schedule (#196 vs #267). Marshall is 0/5 on the road and their best home win is against #158 Ohio...rest are cupcakes. Elon is 4/0 at home and also beat #86 Notre Dame at ND 84-77. They have a 79-56 win at home against #143 Wofford and won the last home game before the break against #145 UNC Greensboro.
There are two stats where Elon has a huge advantage. They are an outstanding rebounding team for a smaller school, #27 in getting 55.3% of the available rebounds. Marshall is #199 at 49.7%, Elon is very disciplined on defense at #4 in the country, committing only 12.8 fouls per game. Marshall is a woeful #360, committing 21.8 fouls per game.
Marshall is #334, shooting 28.5% from 3 pt range vs Elon's 33.8%. Marshall is also bad from the FT line (#296 at 66.9%) vs Elon's mediocre 70.1%. Marshall will undoubtedly have a tough time getting points in the paint against Elon's height. Elon is a strong #31 in holding opponents to 44.7% from 2 pt range. The only category Marshall has an advantage in is TOs. They commit 2 less per game than Elon.
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