One Play Tuesday

With a weak slate Sunday and absolutely nothing worth looking at yesterday, I've had a few days off from gambling.  But today I'm back and I think I've got one.  As of now, really liking DREXEL -2.5.

Digging into the matchup a bit, this one just seems like sort of a disaster for UNCW, as everything they do well Drexel is well-suited to take away and everything they do poorly Drexel is well-suited to take advantage of.

Let's start with the huge disparity on the boards:  Drexel is one of the absolutely best rebounding teams in the country (18th in Oreb% and 1st in Dreb%), paced by their three formidable bangers Givens, McCoy, and Ruffin.  UNCW, on the other hand, only has one competent big (Rendelman) to handle Drexel's bangers, as Matt Wilson is really a big stiff for his size, and it shows in their rebounding numbers (129th Oreb%, 314th Dreb%).  It's not hard to imagine a scenario in which Drexel absolutely DESTROYS UNCW on the boards and takes control of the game.

When Drexel's on offense, Drexel will relentlessly try to work the ball inside.  They're not particularly good at shooting (they're pretty bad, actually), but it may not matter the way they're capable of corralling their own misses and putting them back in.  And if by some miracle Fouch or Colds catches fire from beyond the arc, they could really lay it on them.  But the one thing that we do know is that they take pretty good care of the ball (which they should be able to do again in this game against the UNCW defense) and get the ball up on the rim.  And really, in this game, that's all it might take.  UNCW primarily plays a 1-3-1 zone defense, and while that may frustrate Drexel at times, if they're patient they should be able to get quality looks at the basket, as this Drexel team is actually one of Bruiser's better teams in terms of being patient and working it inside.  UNCW will have to work hard to rebound out of the zone, though, but the way they've struggled with it all year, I forsee problems tonight.

On the other end is where things get interesting.  UNCW's offense is predicated on the 3-ball.  Shooting threes is really the only thing they do well.  It's also the one thing Drexel is really great at taking away.  Drexel plays an in-your-face pressure man D extended out well beyond the three point line, and they're exceptionally good at denying three-point looks.  In fact, they allow the 27th fewest three point attempts (per field goal attempts) in the country, and on the relatively rare times the opponent does shoot a 3, they do it at only a 28.5% clip, good for the 8th best 3-point FG% defense in the country.  Simply put, UNCW will either have to buck all of these defensive trends (which isn't impossible, mind you, just less likely than it would be against another opponent) or find a new way to score (which seems more unlikely because they simply don't really have any other way to score).  UNCW does not move the ball particularly well with their passing and their ball movement leaves something to be desired, which should make them extra easy to defend for this style of defense (unlike a team like W&M, that always seems to give Drexel fits).

Ultimately, this game just feels like a physical mismatch to me.  Certainly UNCW's zone defense could frustrate Drexel or their three point shooters could get hot and power an efficient offensive performance, but the more I look at it the more I think you'd have to really dream on either scenario.  Drexel is the bigger, stronger, more physical team, and as long as they come ready to play I think they should be able to handle their business tonight.