Posted:
#1
Hey all,
Happy Opening Day (for real), folks. So pumped. Let's do this.
I've got one bet tonight as I try to kick this season off right. Sorry I'm posting so close to gametime (one hour away), but let's get right into it my first play of the year:
PORTLAND STATE +11.5
Onto the write-up...
Denver, led by Joe Scott, plays one of the most unique systems in the nation, as most of you know. It's the slowest-paced team in the country, ranking in the bottom five every year of Scott's tenure there. And there offense is five-out, none-in, and is EXTREMELY three heavy. They shoot threes on a ton of possessions, and shoot them pretty well, as everyone can hit the outside shot. However, the rest of the Four Factors let them down, as they turn it over a ton and don't get any offensive rebounds (by design, as Scott doesn't have anyone inside in his sets and has them all retreat when the shot goes up). Because of this, they have to be one of the best shooting teams in the country to even have an average offense, but more likely than not they'll be a slightly below average offense. And defensively their extension and trapping and pressure tends to create a lot of turnovers, but they don't really do anything else particularly well and have had a bad defense during most of his tenure.
Portland St., a back-to-back Big Sky champion in 2007-08 and 2008-09, is one of my favorite teams this season to have a little rebound from last year. They'll have the challenge of integrating a lot of new talent (which in large part explains the big line), but finally off of academic probation, this team has the depth the past two versions did not. The offensive talent's been there, but it's the horrendous defense that has made this team as bad as it has been these last two years. But just getting a bunch of fresh, talented bodies in there (combined with some healthy regression) ought to make this defense a little more respectable, which will ultimately be the key to their season.
There are definitely reasons this line is so high. Denver has one of the stronger home/road splits in the country the past few years, and it's a pretty tough place to play (at elevation). Also, it's a very disciplined system, and a young PSU team may have some trouble matching that patience, which may allow Denver to get open looks as it takes advantage of the gambling, impatient PSU defense. That'd be the fear in betting this.
The pro-PSU case starts with the pace. Denver plays, as I mentioned earlier, the slowest pace in the country, and so winning by 12+ for them would mean that it was a mega-blowout. For a team that's average (at best) offensively and average (at best) defensively, covering that number will be tough against anybody. If PSU's defense is prepared and ready and patient (they've had enough time to prepare for this game), they could slow down Denver's offense, which doesn't have anything but the three-ball to hang their hat on. And one of their biggest weaknesses defensively is on the boards, which Denver is about the least capable in the country of exploiting that with their system. In fact, Denver's system, which stresses the three, caters to the one thing PSU wasn't absurdly horrible at last year on that end (perimeter D). And PSU's young talent, despite its inexperience, is more athletic and physically talented than anything Denver's running out there, which should give them a chance to score the ball. And again, digging into the matchup, the thing they do best is take care of the ball, nullifying Denver's biggest defensive strength.
This bet isn't for the faint of heart, but I just love the value here of Portland State +11.5. There's definitely a scenario where this one gets away from this on the road against an experienced, discplined team at elevation, but there's a lot of things that COULD go right for them to tilt this one in their favor. If ANY of those things goes right (Denver's 3's aren't falling, Denver doesn't force turnovers, PSU stays patient on both ends, etc) goes in their favor, they ought to have a very good chance to cover. And if several of those things go their way, they may even have a chance to steal this one outright.
Best of luck to everyone tonight and this season. Let's go, baby!
PORTLAND STATE +11.5
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dmon
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