OVC & MVC 2ND ROUND

EIU  VS  MURRAY ST.  -12.5

 The OVC tournament now moves to Nashville for the semi's and finals. A lot of people will look at this matchup and see that EIU has won 8 in a row and and is 6-2 ats in those games and think this game will probably go down to the wire. First let me say I have probable made more money on EIU games this year than any other team. Lets take a closer look at those 8 games. I've said repeatedly this year that EIU is two different teams depending on if they're at home or on the road. In these last 8 wins 6 of those games were at home and the two road wins were against Tenn-Martin and SEMO, the bottom two teams in the conference. This game is at a neutral site or a road game for each team. In conference games EIU was 3-6 on the road with their 3 wins coming against the bottom 3 teams in the conference. On the other hand Murray St. lost 1 game in conference play all year. That was at 2nd place Morehead after Murray had already locked up the regular season championship. Out of 9 conference road games this year Murray St. won by more than 12.5 six times. Out of EIU's six road losses 4 were by more than 12.5 points. In their two games against Murray St., EIU lost at home by 9 as 11.5 point dogs and lost by 16 at Murray as 18.5 point dogs. The difference in this game is EIU is only getting 1 more point for playing at a neutral site as they got when they played Murray at home. Murray has proven all year that they can play and win big on the road. Once Murray St. locked up the championship they coasted till the end of the year. As we all saw in the first round of the tournament Murray is very focased now as they destroyed a much improved Tenn St. team, that had went 5-1 in their last six conference games, 84-51. Tenn. St's lone loss in that 6 game span was the last game of the regular season in a very close game at EIU 66-61. The only drawback in this one is I'm sure EIU will play mainly a zone defense against Murray. Murray St. is much better playing against a man to man defense than a zone. The only team in this conference that comes anywhere close to Murray in talent is Morehead. I believe this Murray St. team is very focased and will take no prisoners. They are on a mission and EIU just doesn't have the horses (pun intended) to slow them down. This is my Top Play of the day. I'll have some more plays tomorrow so check back. Regular season record 92-76 +40.06U.  post season record 3-1 +7.7U.

5  #868 MURRAY ST. -12  -120 (BH)

BRADLEY  VS  CREIGHTON -3.5

Creighton comes into this game on a 3 game winning streak while Bradley comes in 2-1 in their last 3 games. The stats between these two teams are pretty much equal. To me there are two big edges for Creighton, coach, Dana Altman and history. While this hasn't been a great season by Creighton standards this is noe the post season and Creighton has the dean of Valley coaches on their bench. Creighton is 36-18 all time in MVC tournament games. Altman is 22-13 all time against Bradley and winners of the last 6 meetings. He is also 15-3 against Bradley coach Jim Les. In the last 29 meetings between the two schools, Creighton is 15-1 when holding Bradley to 65 points or less. Creighton has also won the last 22 meeting when they have scored 70 points or more against Bradley. Creighton has had Bradleys number lately and Dana Altman has proven in the past that he is a great tournament coach. I a game where the two teams are pretty evenly matched I think having Dana Altman on the bench is enough to give Creighton the win and cover against this short line. I'm looking at the Drake/N. Iowa game next.

3  #850  CREIGHTON  -3 -120 (BH)

DRAKE  VS  N. IOWA -10

UNI won and covered both meetings this year, 57-48 at Drake and 67-51 at UNI. There is one area that UNI holds a good edge and thats on the boards as they're ranked 3rd in the conference in rebounding margin at +4.2 pg while Drake is ranked last at -6.4 pg. Not a lot to say in this one as UNI holds the edge in most stats. I really look for UNI to come out and make a statement in this one and cover the 10 point spread. This is a 12 noon start in the central time zone and Drake did play at 6pm central last night.

3  #848  N. IOWA  -10  -110

We get a winner with our first game as UNI wins 55-40. Someone forgot to tell UNI when the game started as they fell behind by 11 in the first 12 minutes of the game. After UNI woke up they put on a defensive clinic holding Drake without a field goal for the next 21 minutes. Then they just tried to kill the clock the last 6 minutes of the game 1-0 +3 units on the day. Next up Creighton. GO TEAM GO!!!

I'm kind of leery of that game. I like Morehead to win the game but TTU has been playing pretty good ball lately. MSU beat Tech twice this year. By 9 at home and by 13 at Tech. I don't like this number so I'm not going to force a play, especially when I like the other game a lot.

I was completely wrong on our second game as Bradley wins big  81-62. Bradley goes 27-28 from the FT line.Bottom line in this one it looked like the Bradley players just wanted this one more. 1-1 -.6U.