Posted:
#1
Hey guys,
I've got a play on Monday night's Big 5 game when Fran Dunphy brings his Temple Owls to the Palestra to play my Penn Quakers. And unforunately, the play I'm going with is:
TEMPLE -10.5
Here's why I'm going against my boys tonight:
I haven't given you guys a season preview for my Quakers (yet), so let me start off with a very abridged version of one. Hopes were pretty high for the Quakers coming into the season as they continue to rebuild the program under new Coach Jerome Allen. Returning were three very (offensively) talented perimeter players in star senior PG Zack Rosen, a very talented sophomore 2G in Miles Cartwright, and a fifth-year senior sharpshooting SF in Tyler Bernardini. And these guys were supposed to be complimented by Coach Allen's first recruiting class, which featured some top-notch talent, especially up front. Two freshman were supposed to start for this team up front and make an immediate impact, but top recruit Greg Louis had hip surgery within the last week or two and is probably out for the year, and Henry Brooks is another two months away from action as he continues to rehab from ACL surgery. So suddenly, a season that people were so optimistic about a few weeks ago looks to be in serious trouble early, as this team is left with a gigantic hole in the middle. The guys who are filling in there are just not ready and not good enough to compete against the big boys. I'll get into more detail in my eventual season preview and do player-by-player breakdowns, but for now that's the big picture view for this team.
So Penn's strengths right now are on offense, especially on the perimeter. However, this is a really bad defensive team right now, as the guards are not great defenders and allow penetration way too easily, and the bigs can't hold their own in the middle. And the biggest weakness of this team is rebounding, as their total lack of a frontcourt leaves them helpless (they got abused on the boards in an exhibition game against a non-D1 team and in their season debut against a horrendous UMBC team).
Temple should be able to thrash this team, as it's one of the big boys Penn's just not ready to play yet. Their guards (Fernandez, Moore, Wyatt) can break us down and kick it out to wide open shooters. And the guys inside should be able to have their way, particularly power forward Rahlir Jefferson, as Penn doesn't really have a power forward at the moment. The rebounding margin is going to be absolutely huge for Temple and will be a major key to the game in their favor. And when Temple's on D, Dunphy's discplined man-to-man (which this group of experienced players is well schooled in by now) really should be able to keep Rosen out of the lane for Penn and stymie Penn's offense.
Now, the reasons that this bet might scare you are: 1) This is gonna be a very slow-paced, half-court game. So Temple will have to be very efficient on both ends to cover. And 2) Temple's big weakness last year defensively was 3 point shooting defense (percentage-wise), the one thing Penn relies heavily on.
However, Temple also gave up very few three point attempts at all (despite the fact that when they did, they were made at a high percentage). Still, this indicates an ability to close out and force teams off the three point line, which is consistent with the history of the defensive DNA of Dunphy-coached teams. If you do that successfully against Penn and prevent them from making a bunch of threes, they have no other gear offensively, as there's no inside game to fall back on right now (and Temple's too tough inside to score down there with much success). And Temple's guards really should be able to break down this porous Penn defense, setting up open threes all day long for them (Wyatt killed Penn last year). But the biggest advantage Temple has is on the boards, which is where they're truly gonna destroy Penn. Good rebounding teams will be playing taps on the glass against Penn, and tomorrow night will be no different. That's the number one reason I like this bet.
I hate that I'm this pessimistic about my Quakers going into this game, but I really don't see how Penn is going to keep it close. If Penn shoots really well and hit some threes, they could hang around for a while. And maybe Temple doesn't have its killer instinct honed quite yet in its first game of the season and Penn can hang on to only lose by only 7-10. That's how I'd lose this bet.
But more likely than not, Temple should be able to control this game and it really shouldn't be up for grabs as we get to the final under-4 timeout. More likely than not, this one ends in a double digit margin.
TEMPLE -10.5
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