Hey guys, I do not post alot but figured I'd give my point of view regarding tonights game. I graduated from Baylor 10 years ago and I am a die hard fan (and holy sh!t the athletic program sucked back then - the current students dont know how good they have it).
When the selections initially came out, I thought Baylor got an extremely lucky draw. A 6 seed in SA? You got to be kidding me! I figured they would handle their business against Nebraska and Creighton, and I was actually more worried about Nebraska than I was Creighton. Turns out, I didn't need to be worried at all. Baylor rolled in pretty much every aspect of the game.
Drew extended his 1-3-1 zone out which has helped Baylor make thier run over the last month or so. The problem with extending the zone is it leaves plenty of room for the mid-range jumpers. So far, nobody has been able to hit those shots except for Iowa State in the Big 12 Champ Game (and ISU wasn't able to hit them in Waco either). Baylor hasn't played a team that consistently hits the 10-12 foot jumper as well as Wisconsin all season. In my opinion, if Baylor continues to play the extended 1-3-1 zone against Wisconsin all game, I'm afraid Baylor will lose. I believe that Baylor's only shot here is to bring back the zone in a normal fashon, thus taking away the mid range shot; however, that will leave the 3 pt open all night if Wisconsin can effectivly rotate the ball (which I believe they can). The other option is going to a man defense which they have played a little bit, especially earlier on in the season. I think if the Bears choose this route, they could be in way over their heads as this simply isn't the defense the players have had a whole lot of experience with and I'm afraid this late in the season it might wear on them a bit.
In conclusion, it looks like Baylor's defense is the key to this game. They have three options: 1, continue to play their extended zone and hope that Wisconsin misses the 10 foot jumpers (if Baylor does this, I belive Wisonsin will win by 7-10 points), 2, reduce the zone to take away the mid range shot (I belive this is Baylor's best bet to win the game - essentially betting that Wisconsin will shoot poorly from the arch), 3, go to a man defense and try to play big boy ball (I believe this to be the worse option and Bo will show his coaching superiority in this situation)
These are just my opinions from watching my Bears all year. I could be wrong in each aspect - we'll see. Also, keep in mind that I am a homer and my vision might be clouded and subconsciously looking for the worse. Just wanted to give y'all my opinion on tonight's game from someone who knows the program well. I am on Wisconsin -3 and the Wisconsin ML. Good luck however you decide to bet.
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