Clemson -3
A lot on the line today, especially for Clemson who is fighting for their tournament life. The Hokies appear a little bit safer than the Tigers after beating Duke last weekend. They did drop the ball against Boston College a few days later as they were beat by 15 points. Clemson has played very well at home this year (as almost all teams do). They two losses coming to Michigan and North Carolina. The Hokies have a losing record on the road this year and have a few conference road wins, but they also have a few games they have dropped on the road to teams that are not as good as Clemson, (i.e. Boston College, Virginia, and Georgia Tech). Yes, there is a lot of pressure on both teams in this game to get a quality win, but I feel the pressure is going to be felt more by the road team here as they do not have the depth to be playing on the road in this game, having a roster that is banged up and pretty thin. I also have to mention the revenge factor for the day as well. I look for Clemson to put forth their best effort at home and get a pretty solid win to keep them and their tournament lives very much alive.
West Virginia -3
Another home favorite like almost all my selections today. Tough game here. Louisville is playing great defense and in turn is seeing the results in the Win column. This was a team that was picked to be closer to the middle-bottom of the conference coming in this year. They have played exceptional defense and that will always keep you in the game. They also rely heavily on the 3-pt bucket. Just like I mentioned in my Notre Dame, UCONN writeup, I expect the 3-pt baskets to be even more difficult to come by when playing on the road in a very hostile environment. West Virginia played a great game against UCONN on wednesday, and I expect very well the same type of effort and result at home again today vs. Louisville. I expect a big edge on the boards from West Virginia, and Huggins knows that his team needs to rebound Louisville's misses so they do not turn into second chance 3-pt attempts, which could hurt the Mountaineers in this game. West Virginia gets their revenge for a stunning one point defeat earlier this year on the road to Louisville. I'll play the same home number again.
Kansas -2.5
Yes, I am well aware that Missouri is the only team in the Big 12 that is undefeated at home this year. But, I am also aware the that Tigers have had some serious struggles against the Jayhawks in recent matchups (as have a lot of college teams). Missouri is just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against the Jayhawks. To me, the spread tells the story in this one. A line closer to Pick Em and I would have jumped towards Missouri, but I am seeing all that I need to see to stick with the better team, Kansas in this spot. Kansas has enough veterans on their roster to go into Missouri and beat an excellent home team. They rebound the basketball better, which is going to be a big factor in this game. I just like a deeper, better, better rebounding team on the road with veteran presence to beat the Tigers at home in this game. The small chalk to me is nothing.
UCONN -3
A lot of factors are playing into my mind in this game. One of my favorite plays on the board today. Two teams playing a little different basketball down the stretch run here. Notre Dame has been rolling, including their huge defeat of Nova on Senior Night in their last game. UCONN on the other hand has not been playing nearly as well as they did to start the season and skyrocket to the #15 ranked team in the country. Facts of the matter are this: It is Senior Day at UCONN and they enjoy one of the more comfortable home court advantages. Their average margin of victory at home is about 12 points. I expect something close to that type of victory once all the chips fall into place. Notre Dame struggles on the road historically. I understand this team is better than in the past, but they still rely on the 3-point shot, and that will be a very tough task on the road today. Notre Dame is 1-10 ATS under Coach Brey following a 20 point + blowout win. I expect a good game from the Huskies at home on Senior Day.
Vandy -3.5
Great matchup, and should be a great game. I hate to keep talking about Senior Night, but again it does apply here. Revenge factor also plays into the hands of Vandy at home tonight. They will look to avenge their OT loss to Florida earlier this year in Gainseville. Florida is playing very well lately and got a great second half effort in their most recent game against an Alabama team fighting for their tournament life. Difference IMO again is in the home court advantage, plus a revenge angle. Home court is a huge factor that you can not deny really in any conference. Vandy to me is a better team when matched up with Florida, so I will take the small chalk at home and play the home court advantage, revenge, and Senior Night angles in this game.
North Carolina Pick Em
I can not wait for this game tonight! These games are very special to observe, and to wager on. It has been a few years since North Carolina has beat the Blue Devils, as you have to go back two years when UNC hosted Duke at home for that defeat. No surprise Duke swept the series last year with their loaded team that I predicted to win the National Championship. But, UNC was also trying to find themselves an identity last year as well. They have grown leaps and bounds this year, and I firmly believe their confidence was raised about a month ago when they went into Cameron Indoor and almost beat the Blue Devils. Like so many other bets I have placed today, this road team, Duke, needs to rely on shooting the ball well to get a huge win against UNC tonight. I do not expect that. They didnt shoot the ball that well in the 1st matchup and they were playing in the comfort of their home court. I expect them to struggle again, but this time I expect the home team to take advantage of playing on home and shoot the ball better, play even better defense, etc. This is a heck of a battle and rivalry between these two teams...I expect revenge to be boiling here tonight! Should be an excellent game to the finish, but I really like the Tar Heels to pull this one off!
Hot Forum Topics
