So today we are going to try something new. With yesterday being a dog day - 23 dogs covering vs 19 favorites covering - we have started to look deeper into the stats.
There will be no x factor today but instead picks based on Home vs Away stats
First Pick
Valpo +16
You can call this a road game, but being an hour and a half away from each other, its almost neutral ground.
The swing of the game is 11.6, meaning Purdue outscores their opp. by 31.2 at home and Valpo outscores their opp by 19.6 on the road so 31.2 - 19.6 = 11.6. If you look at the teams Purdue have played at home, its not that impressive so we feel those numbers are a bit inflated. The same could be said for valpo, and most of their away games have been on neutral ground. So we will stick with 11.6.
At home Purdue scores 92.4 and on the road Valpo scores 84.2 with a difference of 8.2.
With a spread of 16, there is a difference of -4.4(swing - spread) on the swing and -7.8(score diff - spread) on scoring diff. This means the spread is technically too high by between 4.4-7.8 points.
If you work the diffence of the new adjusted number (6.1) you can use that to subtract from the spread (16) and see that the spread should be +10.
Another, and much easier way is to combine the swing and point sc spread and divide by 2 - so 11.6+8.2 = 19.8 / 2 = 9.9 making the new spread +10.
The line is padded by 6 points.
Mix in Valpo being a better rebounding team as well and hopefully that offsets the turnover and foul difference that favors Purdue.
Second pick
UNC Greensboro -5
The effective swing on this game is 29.8 but the point score difference is -0.2.
So you add the two 29.8 - .2 = 28.6 / 2 = 14.3 and you see the spread should be -14.5
The line is padded by 9.5 points.
Third pick
Gtown -20.5
The effective swing on this game is 40 and the point score difference is 14.6.
Combining the 2 gives you 54.6 and dividing by 2 gives you the new spread of -27.3.
The line is padded by 7 points.
I confused myself atleast 30 times writing this up so hopefully a math person can either verify it or vilify me.
Good luck all!
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