Please help me understand....

Why Purdue was a 5 point dog vs Marquette? Every single power rating system online had them as a 1-3 point better team, so playing away line should have been more like +1 to 3 max...

I am trying to perfect a system that i have been back testing for a while now, today i went 7-1 (yesterday 5-5) with Purdue as the only loss today. Hence my question so i can understand why, which will help me moving forward when capping future games.


(I only had $110 on each game) & before anyone tries to claim otherwise, i can happily upload a video (not photoshop photos) of my 7-1 bets today.

Thanks guys 

I trust the oddsmakers lines more than I do any other ranking systems. Taking 5 points with Purdue seemed too generous.

@DanTan

 Wouldnt worry about uploading proof of 100 dollar bets.   This isnt middle school here if strangers dont believe you who really cares what they think

Tip:  Home court matters in college basketball probably more than any other sport imo

Purdue was +3 night before. By morning time line jump to +5. Money was coming in on Marquette 

I didn't see the game or digest the stats, but that Purdue team last night wasn't the same team that beat Alabama earlier. Maybe Marquette is the real deal?

@DanTan

 Purdue might not be that good.  They beat Alabama and barely moved up in kenpom.   They lost to Marquette and dropped like a rock.  A lot of these ranking systems are off early in the year.  Not enough data.  Purdue is going to give up a ton of points in the paint this year.  If Marquette didn’t shoot 30 three pointers they probably win that game by 35.  I honestly was shocked how high they were in all these rankings after losing Edey.  I circled them to bet against early in the year.  I missed the Alabama game but I watched last night, Yale, and Texas am cc and they certainly didn’t look like a top 10 team. 

wrong

You must not spend a lot of time here

@VintageVultures

 and the OP didn't need to bring up any previous NOT POSTED bets while inquiring

that was weak sauce

As someone alluded to earlier, home court matters so much in college hoops.  Explains why Purdue beat a much better Alabama this weekend.  Add to that Purdue was due for a serious letdown/regression whatever you want to call it after putting so much into beating Alabama.  Emotional letdowns are also huge in CBB.  A perfect example from this year already:

Wisconsin beats Arizona.

Next game they come home to play an decent UTRGV and barely eke out the win.  On most days, Wisconsin is probably 12-15 points better.  Coming off that Arizona win though, they came out flat in the first half and trailed almost the entire game.

One angle I like looking at are those teams coming off a "signature" win as a dog and fading the their next game (if the line is right).  I think the Purdue-Marquette game is a perfect example of that.