Posted:
#1
I don't play hoops all that often. It's very frustrating to me... missed FTs, "meaningless" last second 3-pointers for the back door cover, etc.
But I tried something last week with interesting (to say the least) results.
I copied down every spread one night last week before I went to bed, both in the NBA and CBB. Wanted to see how the lines moved by early afternoon. I played every line move of two or more points, each for $11 to win $10, just fucking around.
If the favorite went from -7 to -5, I played the dog.
If the total went from 188 to 191.5, I played the over.
You get the picture.
Anyway, there were 25 such lines moves of two or more points.
I went 6-18-1.
Now I know that this is the shittiest of all shitty sample sizes... just ONE night. But what I'm wondering is, was this just an anomaly? Would doing exactly what I did yield a profit MOST nights? Or should I actually go all George Costanza and bet the exact OPPOSITE of those overnight line moves, which in this case would have produced an 18-6-1 day?
Any thoughts at all on this crap would be appreciated.
I'm sure many of you have experimented with stuff like this.
But I tried something last week with interesting (to say the least) results.
I copied down every spread one night last week before I went to bed, both in the NBA and CBB. Wanted to see how the lines moved by early afternoon. I played every line move of two or more points, each for $11 to win $10, just fucking around.
If the favorite went from -7 to -5, I played the dog.
If the total went from 188 to 191.5, I played the over.
You get the picture.
Anyway, there were 25 such lines moves of two or more points.
I went 6-18-1.
Now I know that this is the shittiest of all shitty sample sizes... just ONE night. But what I'm wondering is, was this just an anomaly? Would doing exactly what I did yield a profit MOST nights? Or should I actually go all George Costanza and bet the exact OPPOSITE of those overnight line moves, which in this case would have produced an 18-6-1 day?
Any thoughts at all on this crap would be appreciated.
I'm sure many of you have experimented with stuff like this.
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