Florida -4.5 @ Georgia O/U 134.5
Both teams come into this game at 9-7 and 1-3 in SEC play.
Florida needs this game in a big way to stay in the SEC hunt and help secure a decent seeding in the Big Dance.
The Gators have been in some real dog fights against good teams that have gone right to the wire.
They lost at Oklahoma 60-65.
Lost at Butler 54-61. Then smashed Butler in the rematch 77-43.
Lost to the Gamecocks by 2 at the end 69-71.
They lost to Sparty in a game where St got a fortunate bounce off a loose ball for a dunk in the final seconds.
UF played a very good Tennessee team tough the whole way last Saturday and was only down 67-69 with :45 seconds to go. The Vols closed the deal on a 9-0 run to win it 78-67.
Then lost at Miss St 71-68 with 2.8 seconds to go on a spectacular drive and 1 in their last game.
So they come up into this game losing two straight.
The Gators are a legitimate top 25 team in all the reputable Vegas style power ratings services (and in my opinion also fwiw). The Dawgs are outside the top 100 and I agree with that also.
Georgia takes to many questionable shots for my liking and some of those shots are from way deep behind the arc.(Just went 4-27 from 3 vs KY) The Bulldogs can also be careless with the ball. They average 16 turnovers a game(#335). The GA defense is okay but they are prone to defensive lapses at times and don't play team help defense all the time. Tom Crean's bunch lacks discipline from my viewpoint.
The price on this game is now in the high rent district. Could take 3 possessions to cover the impost and get the candy. But I don't see the Gators losing this game outright. Too much on the line and they are the better team, well balanced, and clearly have the superior defense in this matchup.
The Gators have not started 1-4 in Conference play since 1982 and I don't think that happens today. UF only averages 69 possessions/game(#305). They slow the game down, control the pace to get their preferred tempo and grind out a victory here in Athens.
Tennessee held Georgia to 50. Vandy held them to 63. KY just held them to 49. The Gators D is better than all of the aforementioned in my opinion.
Neither team shoots the ball particuarly well.
UF 42%, 34% from 3. GA 45%, 31% from 3.
The Gators have struggled at the foul line at critical times(65%) and that is what concerns me about laying the -4.5 on the road.
3.6* ML on Gators -180
2* under 134.5
Bolta
If you can't close you can't cover.