SATURDAY 3/9 CBB BETTING TRENDS

Saturday’s 5 interesting games
Kansas @ Houston (-8.5)
Kansas (22-8, 10-7)
KenPom rating: 17
Tempo: 96
Experience: 19
Continuity: 129
Kansas split its last eight games.
Jayhawks are 2-6 SU/1-2 ATS as Big X road underdogs.
Kansas is shooting 55.4% inside arc (#25)
Jayhawks are 10-5 vs teams ranked in the top 50.

Houston (27-3, 14-3)
KenPom rating: 1
Tempo: 349
Experience: 98
Continuity: 123
Houston won its last eight games (3-5 ATS).
Cougars are 8-0 SU/5-3 ATS as Big X home faves.
Houston has #1 eFG% defense in country.
Cougars are 11-3 vs teams ranked in the top 50.

Kansas (+2) beat Houston 78-65 at home February 3.
Jayhawks won despite being minus-15 (18-3) in turnovers.
That was teams’ first meeting as Big X rivals.
Big X home favorites of 8+ points are 14-17 ATS.

Kentucky @ Tennessee (-7.5)
Kentucky (22-8, 12-5)
KenPom rating: 18
Tempo: 12
Experience: 194
Continuity: 318
Kentucky won four in row, six of its last seven games.
Wildcats are 5-3 SU/3-1 ATS as an SEC road underdog.
Kentucky has #5 eFG% in the country.
Wildcats are 6-5 against teams ranked in the top 50.

Tennessee (24-6, 14-3)
KenPom rating: 5
Tempo: 73
Experience: 27
Continuity: 67
Tennessee won its last seven games (6-1 ATS).
Vols are 7-1 SU/ATS as SEC home favorites.
Tennessee has the #2 eFG% defense in country.
Vols are 8-5 vs teams ranked in top 50.

Tennessee (-1.5) won 103-92 at Kentucky February 3.
Teams split their last six meetings.
Kentucky won three of last five visits to Knoxville.
SEC home favorites of 8 or less points are 20-21 ATS

North Carolina @ Duke (-5.5)
North Carolina (24-6, 16-3)
KenPom rating: 8
Tempo: 43
Experience: 6
Continuity: 181
North Carolina won its last five games.
Tar Heels are 1-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
North Carolina has #12 eFG% defense in the country.
Tar Heels are 6-4 vs teams ranked in top 50.

Duke (24-6, 15-4)
KenPom rating: 7
Tempo: 242
Experience: 209
Continuity: 25
Duke won eight of its last nine games.
Blue Devils are 8-1 SU/6-3 ATS as ACC home favorites.
Duke has #20 eFG% in the country.
Blue Devils are 5-3 against teams in top 50.

North Carolina (-5) beat Duke 93-84 at home February 3.
Teams split their last 12 meetings.
Tar Heels won three of last five visits to Durham.
ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 27-20 ATS.

New Mexico @ Utah State (-3.5)
New Mexico (22-8, 10-7)
KenPom rating: 36
Tempo: 5
Experience: 41
Continuity: 218
New Mexico is 4-5 in last nine games, after an 18-3 start.
Lobos are 4-4 SU/1-3 ATS as Mountain West road dogs.
Lobos are 4-2 in games decided by 5 or less points.
New Mexico is 6-7 vs teams in top 100.

Utah State (25-5, 13-4)
KenPom rating: 41
Tempo: 110
Experience: 79
Continuity: 360
Utah State won six of its last seven games.
Aggies are 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS as MW home favorites.
Utah State is shooting 57.2% inside arc (#11)
Aggies are 7-5 vs teams in the top 100.

New Mexico (-6) beat Utah State 99-86 January 16.
Lobos shot 69.4% inside the arc.
Utah State won seven of last eight series games.
Lobos lost their last six visits to Logan.
Mountain West home favorites of 4 or less points are 10-9 ATS.

OVC Tournament final
Morehead State vs Little Rock (@ Evansville, IN)
Morehead State (25-8, 16-4)
KenPom rating: 121
Tempo: 329
Experience: 164
Continuity: 247
Morehead State won its last five games.
Eagles are 1-2-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Morehead played six guys Friday, four of them 36:00+.
Morehead is playing for third night in a row.
Eagles are 1-5 vs teams in the top 200.
Morehead is 7-2 in its last four OVC tourneys (won in 2021).

Little Rock (21-11, 15-4)
KenPom rating: 176
Tempo: 95
Experience: 250
Continuity: 287
Little Rock won its last ten games.
Trojans covered 10 of their last 11 games.
Little Rock has #51 eFG% defense in country.
Trojans are 5-3 vs teams in the top 200.
Little Rock had stress-free win Friday, didn’t play Thursday.
Last time Little Rock won a conference tourney: 2011.

Morehead (-1.5) lost 69-68 at Little Rock February 15.
Little Rock was 16-18 on foul line, Morehead 4-4.
Trojans won two of three meetings as OVC rivals.
Home team won all three of those games.

— Horizon League
Three of the four higher seeds got upset Thursday:
Oakland 75, Fort Wayne 65- Grizzlies were only top seed to advance.

Northern Kentucky 99, Wright State 97 OT
Wright State led by 17 in first half.
Wright State led by 3 with 0:04.4 left, fouled intentionally, but NKU got the rebound and scored at the buzzer to force overtime.
Over was 23-7 in Wright State games this season.

Cleveland State 82, Youngstown State 70
Penguins were only 5-31 on the arc.
Youngstown was favored by 10.5 points.

Milwaukee 95, Green Bay 84
Panthers shot 59.6% inside arc, were 27-35 on foul line.
Green Bay lost five of last six games, after a 17-9 start.
Green Bay is 18-14, after going 16-71 the last three years, but this one hurts.

Semi-finals in Horizon aren’t until Monday, so the survivors get to rest up.

— Missouri Valley
Ill-Chicago 84, Southern Illinois 82, 2OTs
#11-seed UIC blew a 41-27 halftime lead, but pulls a big upset here.
Three Flames played 46:00+; they play #3-seed Bradley Friday. 

— West Coast
Pepperdine 102, Pacific 43
Waves led this game 56-9 at halftime, 56. to. 9.
Both coaches in this game have been fired, although Pepperdine coach Romar is finishing the season.

— Pac-12
Arizona 88, UCLA 65
Last time these teams will play as conference rivals.
Arizona led 44-27 at the half; they’ve won 10 of their last 11 games.
UCLA lost its last five games; they’ve got the #333 eFG% in country.

Very difficult for me to process that the Pac-12 won’t exist after this season. The greedy, over-educated morons who run college sports are killing the Golden Goose.

Colorado 79, Oregon 75
Ducks ran out to an early 18-6 lead.
Colorado has won five in a row; they start four seniors. Hmmm..……

Big West
Cal-Irvine 82, Cal Poly 68- Anteaters clinch the regular season title.

UCSB 76, Long Beach State 74- Long Beach shot 5-19 on the arc, 13-22 on the line and lost by a basket, at home; they’ve lost four games in a row

Some conference tournament trends……..
— ACC
Last five ACC tournaments, four different teams have won the tournament; Duke won it in 2019 and last year. Since 2017, they’re 15-2 in ACC tourney games.

North Carolina hasn’t won an ACC tournament since 2016; in two years under Hubert Davis, they went WL in both ACC tournaments.

Since joining the ACC, Syracuse is 5-8 in conference tournament games.

— Atlantic 15
Winners of last seven A-15 tournaments:
2016- St Joe’s (13-5, 4th)
2017- Rhode Island (13-5, T3)
2018- Davidson (13-5, 3rd)
2019- Saint Louis (10-8, T6th)
2020- COVID year
2021- St Bonaventure (11-7, T5)
2022- Richmond (10-8, 6th)
2023- VCU (15-3, 1st)

— Big 14
Winners of last five Big 14 tournaments:
2018- Michigan (13-5, T4th)
2019- Michigan State (16-4, T1st)
2020- COVID year
2021- Illinois (16-4, 2nd)
2022- Iowa (12-8, T4th)
2023- Purdue (15-5, 1st)

— Big X
Since 2013……
Kansas has won four Big X tournaments.
Iowa State has won four Big X tournaments.
Texas has won two Big X tournaments.

Thats it, those three teams are only champs in last 11 years.

— Big East
Winners of last three Big East tournaments:
2021- Georgetown (7-9, 8th)
2022- Villanova (16-4, 2nd)
2023- Marquette (17-3, 1st)

From 2015-19, Villanova won the tournament 4 of 5 years, so they’ve won 5 of last 8 Big East tournaments, overall, but those were all with Jay Wright as coach.

— Big Sky
#1-seed won 10 of last 12 Big Sky tournaments; #2-seed won the other two.

Montana State won the tournament the last two years.

— Big West
First place team won three of last four Big West tournaments
Last eight Big West tourney champs:
2015- Cal-Irvine (11-5, T2nd)
2016- Hawai’i (13-3, T1st)
2017- Cal-Davis (11-5, 2nd)
2018- Cal-Fullerton (10-6, 4th)
2019- Cal-Irvine (15-1, 1st)
2020- COVID year
2021- Cal-Santa Barbara (13-3, 1st)
2022- Cal-Fullerton (11-4, 2nd)
2023- Cal-Santa Barbara (15-5, T1st)

— CAA
Winners of last five Big 14 tournaments:
2019- Northeastern (14-4, 2nd)
2020- Hofstra (14-4, 1st)
2021- Drexel (4-5, 6th)
2022- Delaware (10-8, T4th)
2023- Charleston (16-2, T1st)

— Word of the Day: bamboozle- to fool or cheat someone.

— Stetson 88, Jacksonville 87 (Thursday night)
Hatters trailed by 10 with 4:53 left in the game.
Stetson made 13-22 on the arc, scored 1.38 points/possession.
Last year (17-14) was Stetson’s first winning season since 2001.
21-12 Hatters play Austin Peay for A-Sun title Sunday afternoon.

— Washington Huskies fired basketball coach Mike Hopkins; Huskies made the NCAA’s once in his seven years coaching there. Washington was 62-72 in Pac-12 games under Hopkins, who also spent 22 years as an assistant coach at Syracuse.

Hopkins was under contract at Washington thru next season, so he will bank $3.1M on his way out the door.

— Southern Illinois fired basketball coach Bryan Mullins, despite going 23-10/19-13 the last two years (25-15 in MVC games). At some of these mid-major schools, you don’t make the NCAA’s, they tell you to take a hike. Salukis haven’t been in the Big Dance since 2007.