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#1
Thursday: 0-1, -2.2u
YTD: 2-3, -6.9u
Arkansas -1 (vs. Florida) 3u
Arkansas didn't look good on Wednesday night, but that might have been their worst performance of the season... and anyway, the Razorbacks normally play well at home and Florida comes in banged up, with leading scorer Casey Prather out and PG Scottie Wilbekin gimpy on a team that wasn't very deep to start with. Look for Arkansas to bounce back after the road loss.
South Carolina +2 (vs. LSU) 2u
LSU just plain hasn't looked good in its last two games, and specifically, they haven't been good on the defensive glass -- problematic against a physical Carolina team that lives off crashing the offensive glass. South Carolina is much improved over last season and should pick up their first SEC win here.
Missouri -4 (at Auburn) 2u
I don't know what the deal is with Missouri. They seem to have a tendency to play down to their competition, and that's going to bite them from time to time (such as the loss to Georgia on Wednesday.) But even on the road, only giving up four points against a mediocre Auburn team seems like a line even Missouri can cover. Auburn stayed close against Ole Miss on Thursday but didn't play particularly well (more on Ole Miss in a moment); figure on Jabari Brown having a big day against Auburn's bad perimeter defense.
Vanderbilt +8 (vs. Kentucky) 3u
Obviously Kentucky has more talent, but they're also inconsistent; and call it gut instinct, but Vanderbilt just always seems to save their best games for Kentucky, having covered five straight in this series. Vanderbilt is down to seven scholarship players, but it didn't really seem to affect them against Alabama on Tuesday night -- though you may start to see them wear down later in the season.
Alabama -2 (at Georgia) 3u
Georgia's road win over Missouri had little to do with anything the Bulldogs did; Missouri just plain laid an egg in that one. But now the Bulldogs seem to be overvalued a bit. Alabama has gotten off to a bad start this season, but this is still the more talented team, and I'll take the Tide as a small favorite here.
Mississippi State +1.5 (vs. Ole Miss) 1u
While some think Marshall Henderson is overrated, Ole Miss's offense did look noticeably worse without him on Thursday night -- and he'll be out for this one, too. Mississippi State is always a risky play just because they're not very good, but they hung with Kentucky for a half on Wednesday and this looks like a good spot to take them, especially because if there's one game this season they really want to win, this would be it.
Tennessee -12 (vs. Texas A&M) 4u
The Vols got off to a slow start, but seem to be rounding into form, coming off a drubbing of LSU to open conference play and now get a fairly weak Texas A&M team that benefited from a lethargic performance by Arkansas in their conference opener. 12 points isn't an easy line to cover, but with the way Tennessee is playing right now I suspect they'll win this one by 20.
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