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    All Forums | College Basketball

    Second Half Lines - I have a question ??

    Capodecina
    davemsh
    motowner
    yousajiveturkey
    DBallz77
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    Capodecina
    Capodecina
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2016 - 12:13 AM ET #1

    Okay, so we all see the second half lines posted in College Hoops. 

    My question is:  "WHO IS FOLLOWING EACH AND EVERY GAME LIVE SO THAT AN ACCURATE LINE CAN BE DETERMINED?"

    For example, I watched Duke and Florida live on ESPN and then I determine what the second half line should be (in my own head) and the totals too. So a game like that I understand, people are there and it's live. 

    But now we take Bowling Green at Evansville for example - WHO IS AT THAT GAME / WATCHING and reporting to Vegas what the game flow is, injuries, foul trouble, etc. etc, to determine what the second half line is. And don't tell me it's based on the full game line, because way too often I see a team favored by 15 , leading by 20 at the half and they're favored by -7 in the secong half.

    So does VEGAS have somebody planted live at every game reporting all the pertinent info ??

    So, what is the answer. ??   I can do my own lines having watched first halves myself, but the games we never see? who does those?
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Okay, so we all see the second half lines posted in College Hoops. 

    My question is:  "WHO IS FOLLOWING EACH AND EVERY GAME LIVE SO THAT AN ACCURATE LINE CAN BE DETERMINED?"

    For example, I watched Duke and Florida live on ESPN and then I determine what the second half line should be (in my own head) and the totals too. So a game like that I understand, people are there and it's live. 

    But now we take Bowling Green at Evansville for example - WHO IS AT THAT GAME / WATCHING and reporting to Vegas what the game flow is, injuries, foul trouble, etc. etc, to determine what the second half line is. And don't tell me it's based on the full game line, because way too often I see a team favored by 15 , leading by 20 at the half and they're favored by -7 in the secong half.

    So does VEGAS have somebody planted live at every game reporting all the pertinent info ??

    So, what is the answer. ??   I can do my own lines having watched first halves myself, but the games we never see? who does those?
     
    Capodecina
    Capodecina
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2016 - 12:56 AM ET #2

    I saw highlights of the Central Michigan / Wisc-Green Bay game in Michigan tonight and there were maybe 320 people at the game......so who is making that second half line? 

    Nobody cares to chime in?  Wow, what a group.....
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    I saw highlights of the Central Michigan / Wisc-Green Bay game in Michigan tonight and there were maybe 320 people at the game......so who is making that second half line? 

    Nobody cares to chime in?  Wow, what a group.....
     
    davemsh
    davemsh
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2016 - 1:30 AM ET #3

    2nd half lines are preset on the 1st half lines.  If one side is getting hit too hard then the computer makes adjustments and adjust the line/juice.  Most games have limits like $2k a side and $1k on totals As a safe guard. They could care less on foul trouble and injuries. It's all variance. 
    Mayweather bet 450000 on
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    2nd half lines are preset on the 1st half lines.  If one side is getting hit too hard then the computer makes adjustments and adjust the line/juice.  Most games have limits like $2k a side and $1k on totals As a safe guard. They could care less on foul trouble and injuries. It's all variance. 
     
    motowner
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2016 - 2:59 AM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by Capodecina:

    Okay, so we all see the second half lines posted in College Hoops. 

    My question is:  "WHO IS FOLLOWING EACH AND EVERY GAME LIVE SO THAT AN ACCURATE LINE CAN BE DETERMINED?"

    For example, I watched Duke and Florida live on ESPN and then I determine what the second half line should be (in my own head) and the totals too. So a game like that I understand, people are there and it's live. 

    But now we take Bowling Green at Evansville for example - WHO IS AT THAT GAME / WATCHING and reporting to Vegas what the game flow is, injuries, foul trouble, etc. etc, to determine what the second half line is. And don't tell me it's based on the full game line, because way too often I see a team favored by 15 , leading by 20 at the half and they're favored by -7 in the secong half.

    So does VEGAS have somebody planted live at every game reporting all the pertinent info ??

    So, what is the answer. ??   I can do my own lines having watched first halves myself, but the games we never see? who does those?


    Not to sound argumentative, but that specific example would never happen.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capodecina:

    Okay, so we all see the second half lines posted in College Hoops. 

    My question is:  "WHO IS FOLLOWING EACH AND EVERY GAME LIVE SO THAT AN ACCURATE LINE CAN BE DETERMINED?"

    For example, I watched Duke and Florida live on ESPN and then I determine what the second half line should be (in my own head) and the totals too. So a game like that I understand, people are there and it's live. 

    But now we take Bowling Green at Evansville for example - WHO IS AT THAT GAME / WATCHING and reporting to Vegas what the game flow is, injuries, foul trouble, etc. etc, to determine what the second half line is. And don't tell me it's based on the full game line, because way too often I see a team favored by 15 , leading by 20 at the half and they're favored by -7 in the secong half.

    So does VEGAS have somebody planted live at every game reporting all the pertinent info ??

    So, what is the answer. ??   I can do my own lines having watched first halves myself, but the games we never see? who does those?


    Not to sound argumentative, but that specific example would never happen.
     
    yousajiveturkey
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2016 - 3:08 AM ET #5

    ^^^^^
    Happens all the time. Iowa the other day was giving -7.5 sec hf after a BEATDOWN in the fh. Believe they was giving 20ish? Providence the other day as well. FSU Sunday. Happens all the time
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    ^^^^^
    Happens all the time. Iowa the other day was giving -7.5 sec hf after a BEATDOWN in the fh. Believe they was giving 20ish? Providence the other day as well. FSU Sunday. Happens all the time
     
    DBallz77
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2016 - 8:21 AM ET #6

    If a large fav is up 20 at the half they can certainly be favored by 7 in the 2nd half . Example Florida state last night, up 22 at the half, -7 2nd half and covered easy
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    If a large fav is up 20 at the half they can certainly be favored by 7 in the 2nd half . Example Florida state last night, up 22 at the half, -7 2nd half and covered easy
     
    betallwinners
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2016 - 8:35 AM ET #7

    Here is the way I typically see it.

    If a 20 point favorite is winning or losing by 2-3 points, the 2nd half line will typically be about 50% of the original 20 points or -8 to -11 in the 2nd half depending if they are up or down by 2-3 points.

    If a 20 point favorite is up by 20 to 26 points at the half.  The half-time line will typically somewhere between pk and -5 depending if they are up 20 or 26.  They figure the team leading big will put in 2nd teamers and take the gas off the pedal a little.

    On totals, they will look at shooting percentages in the first half to see if the teams shot better or far worse than typical.

    I can assure you they have NOBODY at the games.  I check shooting percentages at half on my computer to see if a team came out real cold.  I figure it won't last the entire game.

    Every game can be seen live streaming or on TV and the shooting percentages and injuries are updated live on several sites.  There is not need to have a person at the game.

    Betting half-times can be very profitable if you know what you are doing.

    Hope that helps.....I used to be a partner in one of the first off-shore sites.  There were only 4 in the world at the time back in 1995. 

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    Here is the way I typically see it.

    If a 20 point favorite is winning or losing by 2-3 points, the 2nd half line will typically be about 50% of the original 20 points or -8 to -11 in the 2nd half depending if they are up or down by 2-3 points.

    If a 20 point favorite is up by 20 to 26 points at the half.  The half-time line will typically somewhere between pk and -5 depending if they are up 20 or 26.  They figure the team leading big will put in 2nd teamers and take the gas off the pedal a little.

    On totals, they will look at shooting percentages in the first half to see if the teams shot better or far worse than typical.

    I can assure you they have NOBODY at the games.  I check shooting percentages at half on my computer to see if a team came out real cold.  I figure it won't last the entire game.

    Every game can be seen live streaming or on TV and the shooting percentages and injuries are updated live on several sites.  There is not need to have a person at the game.

    Betting half-times can be very profitable if you know what you are doing.

    Hope that helps.....I used to be a partner in one of the first off-shore sites.  There were only 4 in the world at the time back in 1995. 

     
    JamieR44
    JamieR44
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2016 - 8:47 AM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by betallwinners:

    Here is the way I typically see it.

    If a 20 point favorite is winning or losing by 2-3 points, the 2nd half line will typically be about 50% of the original 20 points or -8 to -11 in the 2nd half depending if they are up or down by 2-3 points.

    If a 20 point favorite is up by 20 to 26 points at the half.  The half-time line will typically somewhere between pk and -5 depending if they are up 20 or 26.  They figure the team leading big will put in 2nd teamers and take the gas off the pedal a little.

    On totals, they will look at shooting percentages in the first half to see if the teams shot better or far worse than typical.

    I can assure you they have NOBODY at the games.  I check shooting percentages at half on my computer to see if a team came out real cold.  I figure it won't last the entire game.

    Every game can be seen live streaming or on TV and the shooting percentages and injuries are updated live on several sites.  There is not need to have a person at the game.

    Betting half-times can be very profitable if you know what you are doing.

    Hope that helps.....I used to be a partner in one of the first off-shore sites.  There were only 4 in the world at the time back in 1995. 



    Very helpful, indeed...thanks...Can you say what sites you use for half-time stats?
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    Quote Originally Posted by betallwinners:

    Here is the way I typically see it.

    If a 20 point favorite is winning or losing by 2-3 points, the 2nd half line will typically be about 50% of the original 20 points or -8 to -11 in the 2nd half depending if they are up or down by 2-3 points.

    If a 20 point favorite is up by 20 to 26 points at the half.  The half-time line will typically somewhere between pk and -5 depending if they are up 20 or 26.  They figure the team leading big will put in 2nd teamers and take the gas off the pedal a little.

    On totals, they will look at shooting percentages in the first half to see if the teams shot better or far worse than typical.

    I can assure you they have NOBODY at the games.  I check shooting percentages at half on my computer to see if a team came out real cold.  I figure it won't last the entire game.

    Every game can be seen live streaming or on TV and the shooting percentages and injuries are updated live on several sites.  There is not need to have a person at the game.

    Betting half-times can be very profitable if you know what you are doing.

    Hope that helps.....I used to be a partner in one of the first off-shore sites.  There were only 4 in the world at the time back in 1995. 



    Very helpful, indeed...thanks...Can you say what sites you use for half-time stats?
     
    maac_specialist
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2016 - 9:28 AM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by Capodecina:

    I saw highlights of the Central Michigan / Wisc-Green Bay game in Michigan tonight and there were maybe 320 people at the game......so who is making that second half line? 

    Nobody cares to chime in?  Wow, what a group.....


    Hey Capodecina,

    The answer is that nobody is watching anything.  Especially websites such as B365.com and any sites that offer livenplay wagering.

    It's a built in algorithm.  I have a buddy that worked a B365.com in the UK and he explained everything.  It's all computer generated and the inplay/2h lines are generated based on current score and opening line.  Every basket each way sways the inplay line and time remaining on the clock is also built into the algorithm.

    Now Vegas books are slightly different.  They follow the general same suit but can account for injuries.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capodecina:

    I saw highlights of the Central Michigan / Wisc-Green Bay game in Michigan tonight and there were maybe 320 people at the game......so who is making that second half line? 

    Nobody cares to chime in?  Wow, what a group.....


    Hey Capodecina,

    The answer is that nobody is watching anything.  Especially websites such as B365.com and any sites that offer livenplay wagering.

    It's a built in algorithm.  I have a buddy that worked a B365.com in the UK and he explained everything.  It's all computer generated and the inplay/2h lines are generated based on current score and opening line.  Every basket each way sways the inplay line and time remaining on the clock is also built into the algorithm.

    Now Vegas books are slightly different.  They follow the general same suit but can account for injuries.
     
     
    choppedwood
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2016 - 10:53 AM ET #10

    Tough to exploit 2nd half lines on big games.........the ones you have to tune into on espn3 is where a lot of people find value..... i always imaginine a stat guy plugging in all player stats for the algorithm.....who is in foul trouble.......who can not make their ft's.......but realize on big games for 2nd half they can not detour away from the original line or ppl will middle everything and double dip...............
    example...... best game i have seen so far was Fl/Duke......i bit on the 17.5 10min mark2n2 half because of what i saw in the first half. Hill (his Jitters)and i thought FL guards would try to take over the drives and perimter game......my thinking of what i saw first half was correct......but remember we are talking first ten mins of of 2nd half......it boiled down to 3-4 poor shot selections by FL and one missed lay up(may have been two driving floaters) so that was six un accounted for attempts at two pt shots that would have put the ten min mark over the 17.5 ......i still think it was a good bet.........Every game is different......these are just rambling notes that are fresh in my head from last PM


    Hope this helps for 2nd half stuff(always try to exploit and double dip on your full game pick)  don't fall into chase mentality etc......easier said than done....

    This forum is jammed pack full of experinced cappers all with different styles and formulas..........great source of info!!!! I am still learning ....

    GLTA


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    Tough to exploit 2nd half lines on big games.........the ones you have to tune into on espn3 is where a lot of people find value..... i always imaginine a stat guy plugging in all player stats for the algorithm.....who is in foul trouble.......who can not make their ft's.......but realize on big games for 2nd half they can not detour away from the original line or ppl will middle everything and double dip...............
    example...... best game i have seen so far was Fl/Duke......i bit on the 17.5 10min mark2n2 half because of what i saw in the first half. Hill (his Jitters)and i thought FL guards would try to take over the drives and perimter game......my thinking of what i saw first half was correct......but remember we are talking first ten mins of of 2nd half......it boiled down to 3-4 poor shot selections by FL and one missed lay up(may have been two driving floaters) so that was six un accounted for attempts at two pt shots that would have put the ten min mark over the 17.5 ......i still think it was a good bet.........Every game is different......these are just rambling notes that are fresh in my head from last PM


    Hope this helps for 2nd half stuff(always try to exploit and double dip on your full game pick)  don't fall into chase mentality etc......easier said than done....

    This forum is jammed pack full of experinced cappers all with different styles and formulas..........great source of info!!!! I am still learning ....

    GLTA


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