Shively College Basketball Thursday Analysis

Kentucky @ Arkansas----Home team is 8-2 SU the last ten meetings. Kentucky is struggling while the Razorbacks are on the rise, covering their last four SEC games. It's hard to see Kentucky losing two straight though, so we will pass. Lean on the OVER as Arkansas games are averaging 164 points at home and Kentucky games are averaging 150 points. Both teams should get in the 80's here. *OVER*

Marshall @ Charlotte---Marshall is 9-1-1 ATS their last eleven games as they are running an up-tempo system that is working quite well. Charlotte has covered their last eight games though but are still struggling to find a way to win. The OVER is 5-0 in Marshall's last five games. Even with the totals set at 170 and 171.5, they are still soaring OVER. Charlotte doesn't play any defense either, and this is one of those 91-86 finals. (OVER)

Memphis @ Cincinnati---The last four meetings have been decided by double digits taking me off Memphis immediately. Cincinnati had gone UNDER in four straight games before going into 2 OT on Saturday to send that game over barely. With Memphis allowing only 36% shooting from the floor and the Bearcats allowing 38%, the only way to play this game is UNDER.

Wisconsin @ Penn State---The Badgers finally got a quality win without Bo Ryan on the sideline. It was a HUGE win for the team beating Michigan State by one point in an exciting game on Sunday. That sets the stage for this game on Thursday as Penn State has owned the 'ATS' department in this series going 11-0 ATS the last 11 meetings. While the Nittany Lions have been covering in this series, their last SU win against the Badgers was in 2011. The line is lower for this game than what we would expect because Wisconsin stinks that bad. Penn State still lacks the offense to play a full 40 minutes as they tend to go on scoring droughts. While Wisconsin is in let-down mode, it's possible they sneak out a win as this line is about 10 points lower than it was last year in this game. I really can't see Penn State scoring over 65 points and can easily see a final score in the 68-65 range. *UNDER 133 or less*

USC @ Oregon---USC showed no let-down last week beating UCLA 89-75 after their 4 OT win against Arizona. They haven't played since last Thursday and that can be a good or bad thing. I feel it is more of a bad thing as a full week can kill their momentum. The Trojans are headed to Eugene to play a good Oregon team and they have struggled playing on the road in this series. What I look at in this game is the fact that Oregon does play defense and they can control the tempo/pace of play. Oregon is 10-0 SU the last 10 meetings in this series. Point guard Casey Benson is leading the nation in assist: turnover ratio while Chris Boucher is 2nd in the nation in blocks. I like the Ducks to roll here. *Oregon*

Play on Game #773 Gonzaga (Thursday, 11:00 PM EST)

After going perfect against the spread this season, Saint Mary's is 0-2 ATS their last two games as they can't keep up the expectations and the odds makers have now started showing them too much respect. Saint Mary's hit their peak too soon. Gonzaga his a team that started off slow but still hasn't peaked yet. They are playing much, much better ball now than in the beginning of the season.

History: Gonzaga has won the last eight meetings with seven of those being by double digits. The last time Saint Mary beat Gonzaga was in 2012 in the Conference Tourney in OT, 78-74.

Gonzaga has four losses this season. They have been by 1,1, 5, and 5 points. So all four losses have been very close with two of them being within what the point spread is tonight.  I still feel strongly that the Zags are the best team in the conference and all the pressure in on Saint Mary's here. It's an advantage for Gonzaga to be the underdog here. No pressure. All they have to do is play their game and they win this game, easily.

The last two times Gonzaga was an underdog in this series (2014 and 2013, they beat Saint Mary's straight up 75-47 and 77-60.  This is a classic case of taking a DOMINATING team as an underdog that has been DOMINATING this series the last eight meetings, including two as an underdog.