Southern Miss v. Minnesota, Minneapolis MN, 9:00 et.
Opening Line : Minn -4/134.5 Current Line: Minn -4.5/137
Analysis:
I believe that the Minnesota Golden Gophers hold some value tonight against Southern Miss minus the 4.5 points. First of all, Southern Miss has had a difficult travel schedule before tonight’s game. They played at Missouri on Saturday and won outright as dogs. Then they had to travel back to Mississippi after that game, game plan with one day of rest, then fly back to Minneapolis for tonight’s game. Physical or emotional fatigue and less prep time may be a result. Minnesota full court presses as well, which means that extra energy will have to be used by the guards during the game. Minnesota on the other hand has had the chance of playing both of first two games of the NIT at home. They beat High Point in an ugly game from their standpoint, and then beat Saint Mary’s after starting the game down 14-0. One would think that Minnesota should have a nice little advantage after not having to travel and having a little momentum after that nice come from behind win against Saint Mary’s.
Minnesota’s offense has some real nice balance. DeAndre Mathieu starts at the PG position and does an excellent job of driving the ball to kick to shooters or score. He should really want to have a nice game tonight because he is playing against his old coach Donnie Tyndall. Donnie Tyndall previously coached at Morehead State, and did not offer Mathieu a scholarship during his freshman walk-on season. This has to offer some extra motivation for Minnesota transfer guard. Junior guard Andre Hollins and senior guard Austin Hollins really spread the floor for Minnesota. Both guards like to get out in transition and shoot the three and score. Elliason and King are the starting front court for Minnesota. Elliason has nice defensive ability and rebounding as long as he can stay out of the foul trouble. King is a solid role 4 who is knows that he should be strong defensively, and add a little offense when he can.
Southern Miss does not have a player on its roster that stands over 6’7. This could present a problem against Minnesota with the size of both Elliason and Mo Walker coming off the bench. Both are big strong bodies that Minnesota likes to the throw the ball down in the post. Southern Miss doesn’t really shoot the ball very well from the field, ranking 123rd in effective field goal percentage. They rely heavily on forcing turnovers, offensive rebounding, and getting fouled. With the experience the Gophers have at the guard position I cannot believe that turnovers will be a real issue here. Mathieu and both Hollins are used to playing against pressure because that is what they see every day in practice with Pitinio being their coach. He uses a full court pressure similar to his fathers, and the gophers should be ready. They average 12 turnovers per game on the year, so that shouldn’t be a huge issue. One would also hope that with the size advantage here that Minnesota has, they should clean up the defensive glass nicely. Even if Elliason gets into foul trouble early in his game, Pitino can come off the bench with Walker. One would think that Pitino would put an emphasis on defensive rebounding in this game after studying film. Minnesota should be able to mask the strength of Southern Miss ability to offensive rebound here with their height.
Finally, Minnesota has been here before 2 years ago. Both Hollins experienced that run deep into the NIT two years ago, and should have some experience from already being through it. They realize that only a number of teams are still playing at this time of the year, and focus should be high to get to the Madison Sqaure Garden. This is Pitino first year at Minnesota, and you have to believe that he will want to show how “he is turning the program around” by making to MSG in the NIT. Something has to be said for the tougher schedule that Minnesota had to play going through the Big Ten as well. Southern Miss best wins on the season come against NDSU, Georgia State, and La Tech. Minnesota shoots free throws at about 75% as well, so if the game turning into a foul fest late, they should still be able to hold on and cover the number.
I think Minnesota, playing at home wins by around 10. Comments are always welcome.
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