SPORTSBOOK.COM - TEMPLE 300-1 ??!!

Question

here&#x27;s a ridiculously nice line if anyone is on sportsbook.com..... i put $100 on it for $30,000...you can&#x27;t lose. Just hedge the crap out of it... Also michigan 100-1, wichita st 100-1 and virginia 200-1... good luck everyone on the tourney.

philly 99 · Answer

here&#x27;s a ridiculously nice line if anyone is on sportsbook.com..... i put $100 on it for $30,000...you can&#x27;t lose. Just hedge the crap out of it... Also michigan 100-1, wichita st 100-1 and virginia 200-1... good luck everyone on the tourney.

LUUUVUSC · Answer

dude that&#x27;s how vegas makes money on futures, they give odds that &#x27;some people&#x27; &#x27;can&#x27;t pass up&#x27;, for a team that they know is not going to win the tourney, like temple... good team for the a10 but dude, there is no chance they will win it all!?!?!  If you want a reasonable chance at winning take a team like kansas, i looked a few weeks ago and they were at 15-1... it won&#x27;t get your 30 000 on your 100 but it will give you a reasonable chance at winning 1500...

philly 99 · Answer

thanks but i have made very nice money over the years capitalizing on bad lines... again, they don&#x27;t have to win it all....if you are familiar with hedging then you can see how easy it is to make money on this bet .... if they get out of the first weekend i will make some serious cash.  300-1 is a terrible line and i am all over it ....we&#x27;re talking about a 21-5 team that will be a 4 seed.

philly 99 · Answer

just ask anyone who had VCU last year at 200-1 how they make out in the end.  $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

biggiantkiller · Answer

wichita st has a chance

hagrin · Answer

Interesting post.

So, since I was intrigued by the math aspect of this, I had to work this out. Let's assume that they are a 5 seed which is what they are right now in Bracketology.

Initial Bet: $100 to win $30,000

As a 5 playing a 12, you need Temple to win the first game since they will almost definitely be around a 6 point favorite (average line based on mock bracket done this week that was RT'd by vegaswatch). Therefore, if you wanted to hedge that game, you would have a nice ~6 "middle" (not really a true middle). Let's say you bet $500 on the 12 seed ATS.

If Temple wins and covers: - $600

Temple wins and doesn't cover: +350

If Opponent wins: +350 and future bet finished.

Round 2 would be against a 4 seed most likely and the line would probably have Temple as an underdog since they aren't a public team. Therefore, you would have to play the favorite as a ML favorite to ensure a proper hedge, but for the purposes of making the math simple, let's just make it a pick em at -110. Based on how much you're in the hole already, you bets from here on in are pretty straight chasers.

Bet Amount: $770

If Temple Wins: -$1,370

If Opponent wins: +100 and the future bet is finished.

In Round 3, you would almost definitely be playing a 1 seed and Temple would be a serious underdog which means that you would need to play a pretty negative ML to accurately hedge. Let's say it is a -300 ML (could be more or less if it's Kentucky or Syracuse).

Bet Amount: $4,410

If Temple Wins: -$5,780

If Opponent Wins: +100 and the future bet is finished.

Now, there's still 3 more rounds left where Temple could be a significant underdog meaning you would have to play a large ML to hedge properly. If that's the case, there is absolutely no way to hedge to come out ahead if they actually won 5 games if there are no upsets in the bracket and Temple is an underdog after the first real games. Now, if there are upsets and the lines are closer, then yes there is definitely an easy way to hedge.

The only way I see this as being profitable is by either hitting that "middle" the first game, by not betting the Temple games the first 2 weekends and only hedging once they get to the Sweet Sixteen or Temple being a favorite in more games than expected. Now, if you skip the first two games and get lucky, you have a pretty good shot and winning at least 5-10 times your money, but I'm not sure what to think about the probability of two wins for that type of payout.

Curious to see another strategy that makes this type of hedging more profitable. Good initial post though, good luck.

VandalRevival · Answer

Concerning above post from Hagrin,this is not the way to do it...if your future bet does come to light and they do go far in tourney then you are left hedging away anything you could have won and possibly losing some. No way that strategy will work reliably.

You must ride Temple out and wait for the Elite 8 before any good hedging can take place

philly 99 · Answer

vandal revival is right on.... you don&#x27;t start hedging right away....you have to risk the 100 for a game, maybe two.... if they get out of the first weekend you are looking at some serious cash... obviously, the number has to be right ....300-1 is a good 5X what most books have ...its all about the VALUE...wichita state another great bet at 100-1...let that ride the first 2 games and you are loking at a nice payday with them too....iv&#x27;e seen too much crazy sh*t in this tournament lately, you give me 100-1 or 300-1 on a top 5 seed and i&#x27;ll take my chances.  Temple has a great shot to win 2 games. thats all it takes for $$$.

philly 99 · Answer

wichita state $200 for $20,000. all over that ... again, i know they won't win it all, they don't have to. get to the second weekend and the hedge is on. best part, is they somehow win it all, no taxes on offhore ... this bet doesn't work in vegas. you'd lose 35%.

detroitlionsfan · Answer

even if it hits your not gonna get paid from that dog shit site

PDiddyDD · Answer

Wichita State is playing as well as anyone right now.  Beating the living piss out of teams like Creighton and Davidson on the road is impressive.  They also have the 7 footer Stutz who has been dominating and Ragland is one heck of a stud @ SG plus a great defensive stopper.  I might throw down some change on them.

JFen31 · Answer

Wichita was &#x2B;25000 less than a month ago...The current number (not sure what it is) probably still holds value, though.

hagrin · Answer

I figured that was the case. The problem I have with that though is that the probability of that happening is pretty slim. You would imagine that the win probabilities vs a 12, 4 and 1 seed would be something like 70, 45 and 15 (lower if they face a Kentucky). That&#x27;s a &lt; 5% chance of even reaching the Elite 8 and then at that point you need Temple to lose sooner than later and every Temple win after that destroys your earnings. Therefore, you&#x27;re basically betting $100 that Temple wins exactly 3-4 games which gives you something like a &lt;3% chance which makes the future odds worse than the probability of that occurring. Then, in the Elite 8, they will probably be playing a 2/3 seed which means to hedge properly you&#x27;ll be playing a ML in the -400 range which kills it for me. And if they ever won that Elite 8 matchup your returns only get worse as you&#x27;re probably facing another 1 seed. It really only makes sense the more upsets that occur in that side of the bracket in the first two rounds so the MLs to hedge are lower (or Temple is a favorite by some miracle). At 300-1 it might be a worthwhile gamble, but 100-1 isn&#x27;t nearly enough unless you truly thought at 100-1 they could make the Final Four. Still not sure the math makes much sense.TL;DR - You&#x27;re basically betting @ 300-1 (minus a partial ~-300/400 ML hedge) that Temple wins exactly 3 games which has a probability of ~&lt;3% of happening especially when faced with an almost definite 1 seed and then partially hedging a huge favorite ML and hoping they lose. If they win, your hedging gets uglier and uglier and you need a lot of cash to front the hedges.

SPORTSBOOK.COM - TEMPLE 300-1 ??!!

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