St Josephs -4 (Write Up)

Dayton is hot winners of 8 of 10, 9 lined games 6 ATS wins. They just came off a nationally televised game in which they had John Gruden speak prior crushing rival Xavier by 15 at home. They expended a lot of energy in that game. They have a 14-5 mark on the year, with only 4 road games played, 1-3 in those games.  The one win was of quality verse Temple the 3 losses they faired poorly in.

St Joseph is in deep need of a win here, losers of 3 straight all on the road.  4-4 in lined games over the last 10, losers of 5 of the last 7, 5 games in that group on the road. The 2-5 L7 doesn’t bother me much, a lot of away games against some good competition. At home this team is 8-1, with good size wins over  Penn State, Drexel, Creighton, and Villanova.   So they can beat good teams at home, no question.

For what it is worth Home teams have won 10 of 10 in this series and St Josephs has showed a good history of playing Dayton hard even in defeat.

*Edge to Dayton in Rebounding and Turnovers

*Edge to Saint Josephs in 2 point FG% and FT attempts (always like a good edge for a home team here) and SOS.

Seeing a very high % of action toward Dayton, Pomeroy has St Josephs -2, one book opens -5 the others -4. Not a subtle tip of the hand by odds maker’s in my opinion.  They certainly would be expecting more Dayton action following Saturday especially. Yet they release a number that still looks attractive to take Dayton in?

1.       Dayton Limited Road action

2.       Dayton off a large win in front of national audience

3.       Potential set up for a let down game

4.       St Josephs in need of a win

5.       St Josephs proving strong home play against good competition

6.       Major FT advantage in attempts toward St Josephs at Home

7.       All perception favors Dayton, favorable number still given to them

8.       Pomeroy confirming line at -2, which makes #7 more relevant

St Josephs -4 is my play @3 units or 3% risk

My plays are tracked by a play monitor since FEB 5, 2011. Basketball is 298-298 +74.33 Units (I like the +money). 0-3 and stuck in a bit of a losing streak, but I sense things will start to heat up and I like writing out my thoughts when I’m in a bit of a slump so that’s what this is.

Good Luck