I remember a couple years back.. you used to talk about a theory that layed out something like this:
1. Bet $1,000 on a team you like to win at short money (ML -120 or less)
2. Hope that team gets out to a decent sized lead at some point in the game (basketball is a game of runs)
3. When that happens.. LIVE BET the other team's spread as high as you can get it (+8, +10, etc) for around the same payout as the initial pre-game bet.
I think this is a good money management strategy and limits your risk for losing large sums in one night.
You at worst case split and make or lose $100 or so.... but you create good middle opportunities that will hit often (since Vegas is so good at setting lines and most hit around the spread anyway... and if the pre-game line is +2 for the dog... and you get +10... you now have a great middle chance)
Only CON: The team you initially bet gets blown out of the water from the tip... not leaving you any room to middle... so you have to pick the right side who will come out hot..
I think was the overall theory. I'd love some advice on if this is a good strategy. Again, not looking to make $3,000 a night.. just money manage, hedge around for fun, and hopefully hit some middles.
BOL to everyone
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
*repost from NBA forum*
I remember a couple years back.. you used to talk about a theory that layed out something like this:
1. Bet $1,000 on a team you like to win at short money (ML -120 or less)
2. Hope that team gets out to a decent sized lead at some point in the game (basketball is a game of runs)
3. When that happens.. LIVE BET the other team's spread as high as you can get it (+8, +10, etc) for around the same payout as the initial pre-game bet.
I think this is a good money management strategy and limits your risk for losing large sums in one night.
You at worst case split and make or lose $100 or so.... but you create good middle opportunities that will hit often (since Vegas is so good at setting lines and most hit around the spread anyway... and if the pre-game line is +2 for the dog... and you get +10... you now have a great middle chance)
Only CON: The team you initially bet gets blown out of the water from the tip... not leaving you any room to middle... so you have to pick the right side who will come out hot..
I think was the overall theory. I'd love some advice on if this is a good strategy. Again, not looking to make $3,000 a night.. just money manage, hedge around for fun, and hopefully hit some middles.
million dollar question is does the middle add profitability..
I could be wrong here but i think you would need to figure out how many middles you will hit vs how many winning bets you throw away and spend juice on vs how often you saved your initial stake by going for the middle rather than letting the original ML ride.
I tried this with dogs in the mlb. slowly ever so slowly drained the roll. not fun sitting watching the scores till i can hedge.
Another issue i see off the top is to get a large number (8+) from a low ML starting line your team will need to be up by at least 15 if its the 1st half, which is obviously rare.
All that said i think if you put in work into which teams start hot and lose steam down the stretch this may work...at that point why not just bet the live dog without needing to lay the org. ML.
I like funky systems so i appreciate you starting the convo.
just my nonsensical .02 BOL pal would be great to see you track it on here.
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million dollar question is does the middle add profitability..
I could be wrong here but i think you would need to figure out how many middles you will hit vs how many winning bets you throw away and spend juice on vs how often you saved your initial stake by going for the middle rather than letting the original ML ride.
I tried this with dogs in the mlb. slowly ever so slowly drained the roll. not fun sitting watching the scores till i can hedge.
Another issue i see off the top is to get a large number (8+) from a low ML starting line your team will need to be up by at least 15 if its the 1st half, which is obviously rare.
All that said i think if you put in work into which teams start hot and lose steam down the stretch this may work...at that point why not just bet the live dog without needing to lay the org. ML.
I like funky systems so i appreciate you starting the convo.
just my nonsensical .02 BOL pal would be great to see you track it on here.
It won't work. The times you middle will be offset by the times you lose juice from hedging out your initial winner, hedging out when your initial winner loses, and the main loss when your initial winner is dead from the get-go.
The team that comes out hot wins the game more often- that's why those live odds adjust the amount they do. And if you're capable of picking the hot team more often than not, then you'd make more money just betting them and leaving it at that.
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It won't work. The times you middle will be offset by the times you lose juice from hedging out your initial winner, hedging out when your initial winner loses, and the main loss when your initial winner is dead from the get-go.
The team that comes out hot wins the game more often- that's why those live odds adjust the amount they do. And if you're capable of picking the hot team more often than not, then you'd make more money just betting them and leaving it at that.
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